After another dazzling performance Wednesday night, Dodgers ace Clayton Kershaw continues his surge toward a 300-strikeout season. We can't forget about White Sox ace Chris Sale, either, because he can also make it happen.
Getting to 300 strikeouts is a rather rare occurrence in baseball, especially these days.
Thanks to baseball-reference.com's play index, we can find 33 times in history that a pitcher has reached at least 300 strikeouts in a season. Of course, only 14 pitchers have ever done it as several did so multiple times. Here they are, with the number of times getting there in parentheses:
Randy Johnson (6)
Nolan Ryan (6)
Sandy Koufax (3)
Curt Schilling (3)
Walter Johnson (2)
J.R. Richard (2)
Pedro Martinez (2)
Rube Waddell (2)
Sam McDowell (2)
Steve Carlton (1)
Vida Blue (1)
Mickey Lolich (1)
Mike Scott (1)
Bob Feller (1)
So this is elite company Kershaw and Sale strive to join.
It's also been a while. The last time anyone reached 300 strikeouts in a season was 2002, when Diamondbacks teammates Johnson and Schilling pulled it off (yes, that's the only time teammates have pulled it off). The last time an AL pitcher got there was when Martinez did it in 1999 with Boston.
Thus, Sale is attempting to be the first AL pitcher since the turn of the millennium. He has 239 strikeouts in 26 starts this season, an average of 12.1 strikeouts per every nine innings pitched. He's averaging between 6 2/3 and seven innings per start.
Sale has six starts left on the schedule, barring an injury or unlikely shakeup. Here they are along with the opponents' MLB rank in strikeouts (with the most strikeouts being first and least being 30th):
Sept. 6 at KC (30)
Sept. 12 vs. MIN (12)
Sept. 17 vs. OAK (29)
Sept. 21 at DET (14)
Sept. 26 at NYY (20)
Oct. 2 vs. DET (14)
As can be seen, he doesn't exactly have an easy road. Still, we've seen Sale rack up the strikeouts at different points in the season. He struck out 75 in a six-start stretch once. In his last six starts to this point, he has 62. He needs 61 in his final six to get to exactly 300.
I'd say there's a decent chance here though we definitely can't call it more than that.
Kershaw, on the other hand, has a great chance.
With six starts of his own remaining, he's at 251 strikeouts in 194 innings. It's a rate of 11.6 strikeouts per nine and Kershaw is getting a bit deeper in games than Sale, averaging between seven and 7 1/3 innings per start. He's also on fire in the strikeout department, having struck out 39 hitters in his last three outings.
Here are Kershaw's remaining opponents along with their MLB rank in strikeouts:
Sept. 7 at LAA (23)
Sept. 13 at ARI (5)
Sept. 19 vs. PIT (9)
Sept. 24 vs. ARI (5)
Sept. 29 at SF (24)
Oct. 4 vs. SD (6)
That's a pretty easy road and while the Giants are generally tough to punch out, Kershaw did it 15 times on Wednesday.
As for the possibility that the Dodgers hold Kershaw back on the last day of the season to set up for the playoffs, don't count on it. The NL divisional series round doesn't start until Oct. 9, so Kershaw would be on normal rest for Game 1. If they fall back into a battle with the Giants -- who trail them by 6 1/2 games -- the likelihood that both teams are front of the Cubs for the second wild card isn't very good. Even if the Giants do make up 6 1/2 games on both the Dodgers and the Cubs, the Dodgers would then need Kershaw to pitch in order to win the game. Thus, outside of injury or major fatigue, Kershaw's getting his six starts.
And if he does so, it looks like he's going to join the 300-strikeout club. He'll be the first in over a decade and 34th all-time. Might Sale join him? This one bears watching.
