Once the major awards are revealed this week, we'll be able to take a look at the winners and note that many of them wouldn't have been difficult predictions back in March, such as Clayton Kershaw, Mike Trout, Felix Hernandez (maybe) and, yes, Jose Abreu.
When it comes to NL Rookie of the Year Jacob deGrom, though, he's one of the more unlikely winners of any award in recent memory.
In the short run, consider that deGrom in 2013 started in High-A at age 24. He'd make it to Triple-A, but had a 4.52 ERA and 1.47 WHIP in 14 starts for Las Vegas. It's a hitter's paradise in that league and particularly in that ballpark, but that still isn't the line of someone we'd expect to see emerge as an MLB Rookie of the Year candidate the following season.
In the spring, deGrom worked just 7 1/3 innings with the big-league club before his demotion back to Triple-A. He didn't make his MLB debut until May 15.
Taking the long view, deGrom is also an unlikely winner. He was a shortstop in college and was taken as a pitcher by the Mets in the ninth round in the 2010 draft. He missed all of 2011 after undergoing Tommy John surgery, meaning he'd pitch in Class A in 2012, at the age of 24 -- more than two years older than the average age of that league.
DeGrom never once appeared on any top 100 prospect list and when you heard about all the great young arms the Mets had in the past few years, you'd hear about Matt Harvey, Zack Wheeler, Noah Syndergaard and Rafael Montero before even thinking about deGrom.
When deGrom made his MLB debut, he was nearly a month away from turning 26 years old, which is rather old to be debuting, especially for a player talented enough to win the Rookie of the Year.
A month later, deGrom winning the Rookie of the Year was as unlikely as ever. He'd had some good outings, sure, but through seven starts he was 0-4 with a 4.39 ERA. The Mets had lost six of his seven starts, too.
From there, though, deGrom took over. He went 9-2 with a 1.99 ERA the rest of the way. He had four games with at least 10 strikeouts. Only 11 pitchers did it more often in 2014 and every guy ahead of deGrom on that list is a marquee name.
And now he's joined Tom Seaver (most sought after amateur before signed), Jon Matlack (first-rounder) and Dwight Gooden (first-rounder) as Mets' starting pitchers to win the NL Rookie of the Year. Once again, the most unlikely winner from that group is deGrom. He seems to be making a habit of that these days.
