The Boston Red Sox and Chicago White Sox agreed to the biggest trade of the offseason (so far) on Wednesday, closing out the Winter Meetings by agreeing to a deal that sends the All-Star left-hander Garrett Crochet to Fenway Park in exchange for a four-player package.
As is custom during the transaction-happy parts of the year, I'm here to give this particular deal the trade grades treatment. Below, you'll find instant analysis on both sides of the swap, as well as some bigger-picture thoughts and -- yes -- a letter grade that attempts to convey all of that wisdom and foolishness into a single character.
Before we get to the reason you clicked, here is the trade in whole:
- Red Sox receive: LHP Garrett Crochet
- White Sox receive: C Kyle Teel, OF Braden Montgomery, INF Chase Meidroth, and RHP Wikelman Gonzalez
Now, onward.
Red Sox: A
Back in November, I wrote about why the Red Sox should be all-in this winter. The short version is that they have a decent big-league core in place; they have several good prospects nearing their arrival (including Roman Anthony and Kristian Campbell -- two of my three-highest ranked minor leaguers); and they have the financial flexibility that was carved out over the years by former executive Chaim Bloom.
The Red Sox tried to woo Juan Soto, Max Fried, and a few other top free agents who chose greener pastures (or, at minimum, greener paychecks). It looked like another winter of "we tried" was on the menu in Boston. Fortunately for Red Sox fans, though, top executive Craig Breslow was able to pivot and land Crochet, the top pitcher on the trade block, in a deal that absolutely qualifies as the kind of maneuver I had in mind last month.
Crochet, 25, is fresh off a career redefining season. In his first year as a starter at the big-league level, he compiled a 3.58 ERA (115 ERA+) and a 6.33 strikeout-to-walk ratio. He did that across 146 innings, or precisely double the amount he had previously thrown in the majors over his first four big-league seasons.
It's more than fair to have some questions about Crochet's workload moving forward -- not only what he can handle, but how well he can handle it. Simultaneously, there's ample reason why he was so in-demand. That begins with his cheapness (he's projected to make $3 million next season) and extends to him being under team control for two more seasons. There's also, as you may have suspected, his talent.
Crochet has a nasty arsenal that he continues to refine. One of the revelations for him was the addition of a cutter that served as a bridge between his high-octane fastball and trademark sweeper. Crochet then fashioned a sinker late in the year to good returns, suggesting he could have four above-average (or better) offerings to employ heading forward. Combine that repertoire with above-average control (he walked two batters per nine) and an apparent capacity and yearning for improvement, and you have the makings of a front-of-the-rotation force -- for now and 2026.
Garrett Crochet's new Sinker is gonna be a problem.
— Rob Friedman (@PitchingNinja) September 21, 2024
99mph with 19 inches of run. pic.twitter.com/ewpXnGgR3E
Landing Crochet instead of Soto or Fried means that Breslow should have plenty of financial warchest remaining to make another splash move or two. And, while this trade wasn't cheap from a prospect perspective, Breslow managed to hold onto his three best youngsters (in my evaluation) and his most intriguing big-league trade chips -- think first baseman Triston Casas and outfielder Wilyer Abreu.
There's certainly a non-zero chance Crochet falls victim to injury again, suppressing or outright eliminating the kind of impact this deal could have on Boston's fortunes. But that's the beauty and the agony of the future: it's unknowable and inaccessible. From where I'm sitting in time and space, this looks like a home run for the Red Sox, and the beginning of their return to the realm of high-competitive baseball.
White Sox: B
There aren't many teams who had a more eventful, topsy-turvy year with a single player than the White Sox did with Crochet. Their initial decision to use him as a starter was scoffed at -- not because of talent, but durability concerns. Their faith in him -- and, perhaps moreover, his body -- was rewarded when he put forth an All-Star-caliber showing. The White Sox were poised at the deadline to convert that great season into some much-needed long-term help ... only to then be blindsided by his own reported demands; among them: a desired extension if he was to pitch into the playoffs.
Four-and-a-half months later, the White Sox have finally traded Crochet. In return, they net whom I would categorize as three of Boston's top 10 prospects, including the Red Sox's two most recent first-round selections. Let's touch on each player now.
- Teel, 22, is an athletic backstop with a track record of being an above-average left-handed batter. He split last season between Double- and Triple-A, hitting .288/.386/.433 with 13 home runs. He combines a patient approach with above-average raw strength, though the latter is more likely to manifest in the form of doubles (rather than home runs) on account of his batted-ball tendencies. There is a swing-and-miss element to Teel's game that, paired with his aforementioned willingness to work counts, has reliably fueled a strikeout rate at or around 25% as a professional. Teel, whom I considered to be Boston's No. 4 prospect, has enough going for him to profile as a most-days catcher. He ought to make his big-league debut sometime this spring.
- Montgomery, 21, fractured his ankle during Super Regional play at Texas A&M, costing him the remainder of his collegiate career and delaying his pro debut. He's a former two-way talent that profiles as a switch-hitting right fielder with a big arm. Montgomery has above-average thump and is particularly adept from the left side. He boosted his stock by batting .322/.454/.733 after transferring into the SEC, or the proving grounds for collegiates. Scouts have reservations about his hit-tool projection, however, as he struck out in nearly 25% of his plate appearances during conference play. If Montgomery can rein in his swing-and-miss woes, he could develop into a cleanup hitter. Otherwise, he'll have to atone for a low average by walking and bopping.
- Meidroth, 23, spent the entirety of his second full professional season at Triple-A. He hit .293/.437/.401 while launching seven home runs, stealing 13 bases (albeit on 19 attempts), and walking 34 more times than he struck out. Meidroth isn't a dynamic athlete and he doesn't feature much power upside. He does, nonetheless, profile as at least a spare infielder (and perhaps more than that) thanks to high-quality on-base skills. To wit, he connected on more than 90% of his in-zone swings last season and he seldom goes fishing after waste offerings. The White Sox, who ranked last in MLB in on-base percentage by a wide margin, could do worse than putting Meidroth at or near the top of their lineup and seeing if he can grind out at-bats and walks alike.
- Gonzalez, 22, has a lively arm and more than 130 innings at Double-A to his credit. This past season, he appeared 24 times there (19 of them being starts) and amassed a 4.73 ERA that can be blamed on him issuing more than a walk every other inning. Gonzalez has a quality arsenal, including a few pitches that grade as above-average to plus. If I had optimism in his control improving, I would forecast him progressing into a mid-rotation starter. The White Sox owe it to themselves to try their hands with Gonzalez, but barring some mechanical magic, I think he's heading to the bullpen.
It's fair to write the White Sox received some talented players back. The question is whether or not they'll be able to help them grow into legitimate big-league contributors. Mind you, this is an organization that hasn't done well in that respect in recent years, either with trade acquisitions (Miguel Vargas flatlined after coming over as part of the Michael Kopech bounty) or internal projects (including Colson Montgomery). There's enough variability present in each present player's profile, be it the swing-and-miss with Teel and Montgomery or the ceiling-restricting flaws of Meidroth and Gonzalez, that there's a real chance this package plays lighter than it looks. That would be a near-catastrophic outcome for the White Sox.
One veteran talent evaluator I polled about the deal expressed belief that there had to be a better package out there for the White Sox to take. Maybe, maybe not. This is the trade the White Sox made, and it'll be on them to make the most of it -- they'll need to if they're to return to the right of relevance anytime soon.
