usatsi-25873639.jpg
Imagn Images

The top of the MLB home run leaderboard has a familiar name, as no one has hit more homers than Aaron Judge's six, but the two-time MVP is tied with 23-year-old Athletics first baseman Tyler Soderstrom. The latter just had 12 career home runs entering the 2025 MLB season, but he may be just as coveted for Tuesday MLB home run picks as Judge. Soderstrom cracked two long balls on Monday, while other players who also went yard the day before include Shohei Ohtani, Fernando Tatis Jr. and Jose Altuve. All 30 teams are in action on Tuesday, so all of the above could be utilized in MLB HR props in popular betting sites.

Orioles batters like Gunnar Henderson and Adley Rutschman figure to be popular options against Arizona's Merrill Kelly, who allowed three dingers in his last start. Henderson is at +380 at Caesars to go deep, while Rutschman could return a profit at +500. Which players should you target with MLB home run bets? With MLB HR props available for almost every player in every game at sportsbooks, SportsLine's proven computer model can help you find value to add to your MLB home run parlay picks. 

The model simulates every game 10,000 times and is on a 34-19 roll on all top-rated MLB picks on the run line dating back to 2023. It nailed Tatis Jr. at +400 in its MLB home run props on Monday, and now, the model and SportsLine's team of Data Scientists have revealed their projections for some of the most-bet MLB HR props on Tuesday. These three picks can be parlayed for +31400 odds and would pay out $1,575 on a $5 bet.

Kerry Carpenter HR (+650)

Detroit faces Yankees' probable starter, Carlos Carrasco, who has been blasted to the tune of a 7.36 ERA across two appearances this season. Maybe just as importantly is that Carrasco is a right-handed pitcher, and Carpenter has built his MLB career off his success against righties. Carpenter has three home runs over his last four games of this season, and combined with how well he mashes off righties like Carrasco, he has value at +650 at DraftKings.

"42 of Carpenter's 47 HRs have come against RHPs," SportsLine Date Scientist Jacob Fetner said. "The model almost always has value on Carpenter to hit a HR vs righty pitchers because he isn't priced like a star, but just rakes RHPs."

Brandon Lowe HR (+425)

Lowe is another player with discernible splits against RHPs versus LHPs as his career OPS is over 100 points higher against righties (.837) than lefties (.729). He'll face longtime Cubs starter, and new Angels starter, Kyle Hendricks on Tuesday, and the RHP is coming off a year in which his 5.92 ERA was the worst among all 96 pitchers with at least 130 innings last year. Hendricks' HR rate allowed in 2024 (1.45 HR/9) was also amongst the 10 worst in MLB.

It's also important to note that the Rays and Yankees will match up at George M. Steinbrenner Field in Tampa, and the Rays' temporary home ballpark has some of the shortest outfield walls in the majors. The right field porch is just 314 feet, and the switch-hitting Lowe could take advantage of that as just three MLB ballparks have a shorter distance to the right field wall than GMS Field. "We have Lowe at +331 to hit a home tonight, so getting +425 is solid value," said Fetner of his HR odds at DraftKings.

Elly De La Cruz HR (+800)

De La Cruz has two home runs this season and has displayed some of the finest bat swing metrics in the majors. His average exit velocity of 97.5 m.p.h. is fourth-best in the sport, his average HR length of 427 feet is seventh-best, and De La Cruz' average bat speed of 76.2 m.p.h. is 11th-best in MLB. So, anytime he simply makes contact with the ball, it has a great chance of going a long way, and he gets to face a novice pitcher on Tuesday in Landen Roupp of the Giants, who has just five career starts under his belt.  Roupp has allowed 9 ER over his last 7.2 IP, so it's hard to pass up the value for De La Cruz in HR props at +800 at FanDuel.

"Landen Roupp has only given up 2 HRs in his short major league career which is why you can get this price at +800," stated Fetner. "We set the line at +630, so this is a good longshot play on a player of Elly de la Cruz."

Want more MLB picks for Tuesday?

You've seen the model's MLB HR prop picks for some popular props on Tuesday. Now, get MLB projections for every player prop at SportsLine.