The Dodgers won 100 games in the regular season this year. It was their third straight 100-win season and the fifth in manager Dave Roberts' eight years at the helm. One of the times they missed 100 wins was 2020, when they were a blistering 43-17 (a 116-win pace over the course of 162 games). The other two times they won 91 and 92 games and still took the NL West.
Basically, the Dodgers under Roberts are an utter force. They've been the best regular-season team in baseball in that time. Uh oh, there's that qualifier. I said "regular season" there, didn't I?
The Dodgers just lost three straight to the 84-win Diamondbacks, meaning it's another early exit for Roberts and his Dodgers. They won 111 games last year and bowed out in the NLDS. In 2021, they won 106 games and lost in the NLCS. In 2019, they won 106 and lost in the NLDS.
As a result, I've seen a swell of Dodgers fans calling for Roberts to be fired. To be clear, the Dodgers have never given any public indication this will happen or that it will even be entertained. Given the way the front office operates, firing a manager over poor small-sample performance would be foolish when the large sample says he's been one of the best in baseball -- the best, actually -- at winning games.
Still, it's a discussion point, so let's discuss. I'll try to make each case as if I believe it.
The case for firing Roberts
It was just laid out above. In the last four full seasons, the Dodgers have been a playoff disappointment. Even if we wanted to give credit for the NLCS trip in 2021, the Dodgers have wholly disappointed in front of full ballparks in the playoffs since getting to the 2018 World Series.
Since the 2018 NLCS, throwing out the funky 2020 season, the Dodgers have gone 2-5 in playoff series and one of those "series" wins was the one-game Wild Card against a far inferior Cardinals team in which the Dodgers needed a walk-off homer to survive.
Why are the Dodgers a killer regular-season team that fails in the playoffs? At some point, it isn't a coincidence but instead a trend. Maybe Roberts is managing playoff games with less urgency and acting like it's a marathon instead of a sprint. Managers like Bruce Bochy shift gears when necessary. Dusty Baker's Astros never fail early in the playoffs, just like A.J. Hinch's Astros didn't. The Astros didn't even lose a game until the World Series last year and just breezed by an upstart Twins team this year.
Also, we've seen so many cases in sports history where one manager/coach either couldn't get over the proverbial hump or his voice grew stale with his team. We could discuss the Yankees turning from Buck Showalter to Joe Torre and becoming a dynasty. The Red Sox needed to bring in Terry Francona to start winning the big games. Remember the MJ-era Bulls going from Doug Collins to Phil Jackson?
This very well might be the case with the Dodgers. They might just need a new voice. Roberts' isn't working in the postseason and that's what matters most.
Further, it's a PR move and we wouldn't need to feel bad for Roberts. It's not like he's gonna end up broke if he's fired. He's made a lot of money and he's had eight seasons with one of the best jobs in sports. He'll be fine and firing him sends a message to the fans that the postseason failures will no longer be tolerated. On the flip side, doesn't retaining him give out the implicit message that continuing to lose in the playoffs is acceptable?
The case for keeping Roberts
The Dodgers won the World Series with Roberts at the helm in 2020. It seems like a good number of people don't want to count this. It was a shorter season, sure, but there were more rounds in the playoffs. Not only did the Dodgers steamroll through the first two rounds 5-0, but they came back from a 3-1 deficit to win the NLCS and won the World Series in six games. Additionally, 2020 was the most difficult season to navigate of all time in so many ways between the health protocols and external factors. The Dodgers were brilliant all year.
If this is a manager who isn't fit to lead a team through tough situations in the postseason, there's no such thing.
Roberts has won three NL pennants and one World Series in eight years. He's never missed the playoffs. He won 106 games in the one year out of the eight that he didn't win the NL West. That's an absurdly good track record.
Are there even that many specific moves that Roberts made this past series that made anyone believe a different manager would've been winning? Their pitching was in shambles and the Clayton Kershaw Game 1 start was the plan all along, a plan made with the front office. It isn't Roberts' fault that Kershaw was awful. Did he tell Mookie Betts and Freddie Freeman to combine for one hit in 21 at-bats? What more should he have done to make them hit better?
We could keep going here, but I'm inclined to blame the players. This is often where someone will say something like "a good manager puts his players in position to succeed." OK, so what was the solution then? Roberts batted Betts and Freeman 1-2 in the lineup just like he had all year. They are both going to finish in the top four of MVP voting and he didn't make any changes. They were in position to succeed and didn't do it.
The biggest point, though, is that this bloodthirsty, "fire him!" talk seems to forget that he would then have to be replaced. It's the same old discussion that if you have a problem, you have to offer a solution.
Who would the Dodgers hire to replace Roberts? Start tossing out names and I'd love to see one that is a sure thing to be better than Roberts. Any realistic name thrown out there would very likely have an inferior resume. Some of the best aren't realistic, either. Terry Francona isn't going to L.A. to immediately take a high-stress job after walking away from Cleveland. Dusty Baker and Bruce Bochy are set where they are. Buck Showalter has been worse at winning the big one than Roberts. First-time managers are always a wild card. Gabe Kapler has been fired from both the Phillies and Giants. Joe Maddon was a failure with the Angels. For real, who is the replacement? Give a name and honestly assess the chances that said person will definitely be better than Roberts.
I understand the urge to blame the manager when things go awry in the playoffs for a team that is so good in the regular season, but it's just such a small sample and Roberts' best players failed him. Firing him wouldn't really accomplish much and there's actually a decent chance it would make them worse in the regular season.
