By now, the Nationals and Cubs are in Chicago. They are gearing up for a virtual best-of-three series, starting with Game 3 on Monday afternoon. The series is knotted 1-1, but the Cubs could have been up 2-0 had Carl Edwards Jr. not hung a curve to Bryce Harper in the eighth inning of Game 2.
I have no doubt that pitch was Joe Maddon's fault (sarcasm alert!), but let's talk about it anyway.
Given that Harper's home run happened -- especially against a right-handed pitcher -- there's been much hand wringing over the situation. Let's take a look:
Edwards
Edwards is a right-handed pitcher, but he was absolute hell for lefties this year. They hit a woeful .119/.244/.193 with just four extra-base hits (two homers) in 129 plate appearances this season against him. By at least one measure (wOBA), the only relievers harder on lefties this season were Chris Devenski and David Robertson.
Since Sept. 5, Edwards had appeared in 12 games -- including Game 1 -- and allowed zero runs in 10 2/3 innings. He had given up zero extra-base hits.
I've seen some people raising the "back-to-back days" issue, but Edwards was actually fine in September on this front, working 2 1/3 scoreless innings in his second day on back-to-back days.
We could keep going, but point blank there was no reason to even consider Edwards being a bad option here in a vacuum.
Harper vs. Righties
Over the course of his career, Bryce Harper has hit .261/.347/.436 against fellow southpaws compared to .295/.403/.549 against righties. That's in the ballpark of 170 OPS points. This season, he was .311/.357/.445 against lefties and .322/.433/.654 against righties. Note the gigantic discrepancy in power, to the tune of 210 slugging points. He hit 26 of his 29 home runs against right-handed pitchers.
Harper can hit lefties. He hits them very well. He just doesn't hit them for power like he does right-handers.
As such, if you're worried about a home run, the right-handed pitcher seems like a bad call.
Other options?
Joe Maddon's three lefty options in the bullpen were Mike Montgomery, Justin Wilson and Brian Duensing. Here's a look at the three versus Carl Edwards Jr. versus left-handers this season.
| Vs. Lefties | AVG/OBP/SLG | HR allowed/at-bats | SO |
|---|---|---|---|
Carl Edwards Jr. | .119/.244/.193 | 2 in 109 | 41 |
Mike Montgomery | .230/.297/.333 | 3 in 135 | 24 |
Justin Wilson | .234/.342/.359 | 1 in 64 | 30 |
Brian Duensing | .258/.301/.381 | 2 in 97 | 25 |
We need an addendum, too, regarding Wilson. He was atrocious after the Cubs acquired him. His ERA was 2.68 with the Tigers and 5.09 with the Cubs. His WHIP was 0.94 before the trade and 2.09 after. I don't think he should have even been a consideration, so you're left with Montgomery or Duensing vs. Edwards here. See above and make the call. No second-guessing.
Maddon digs in his heels
After the game, Joe Maddon wouldn't second-guess himself.
"That was the only option. That was the right option. C.J. was the right man for the job. Harper is good, C.J. is really good. C.J.'s numbers against left-handed hitters are amongst the best in all of baseball."
As we've already noted, there are some truths in there. Edwards is definitely among the best in baseball against left-handed hitters. He's absolutely been better than Montgomery and Duensing this season. That's not even a debate, nor is it that Harper is "good." Edwards being the "right" option seems like a decent point as well, if everyone can be fair about this.
The "only" option, though? That's worth a sideways look. We can look at the numbers all day and they tell us two things:
- Edwards is a stud against lefties.
- Harper is exponentially better, especially in the power department, against righties.
That leaves us with a discussion as to whether or not you go Edwards or a left-hander in that situation. We've outlined that there's an argument to both sides. Maddon is wrong here with Edwards being the "only" option, but was he wrong to use Edwards? That's a tough call without the benefit of hindsight.
We have hindsight now, of course, and we saw Harper change the complexion of an entire series with one swing of the bat. Many will blame Maddon. Many will apologize for him because he's Joe Maddon and he has built himself an army of apologists over the years. In the end, I just can't get away from this:
Behold, the worst pitch of the 2017 postseason. pic.twitter.com/OftYGMa1yv
— Rich MacLeod (@richmacleod) October 8, 2017
Maddon might have made a mistake in leaving Edwards to face Harper there, but he sure as hell didn't make as big a mistake as that center-cut hanger to one of the most talented hitters in baseball.
Maybe this is just as simple as saying that Edwards hung a curve and an awesome baseball player took advantage?
Nah, that would be too easy. Hand-wring with impunity.
