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USATSI

The Cleveland Guardians enter a transition season in 2024. After last season, they bid adieu to beloved manager – and future Hall of Famer – Terry Francona, and replacing him in the dugout is former big-league catcher Stephen Vogt, who has no prior managerial experience. The organization remains something of a pitching factory, but there are once again questions on offense. As ever, the Dolan ownership group is terminally unwilling to invest in the product at levels befitting an aspiring contender. 

Can the 2024 Guards overcome such neglect from above? Let's dig in.  

Win total projection, odds

  • 2023 record: 76-86
  • 2024 SportsLine win total over/under: 78.5
  • World Series odds (via SportsLine): +7500

Projected lineup

  1. Steven Kwan, LF
  2. Andrés Giménez, 2B
  3. José Ramírez, 3B
  4. Josh Naylor, 1B
  5. Bo Naylor, C
  6. Ramón Laureano, RF
  7. Kyle Manzardo, DH
  8. Brayan Rocchio, SS
  9. Myles Straw, CF

The offense remains a major concern for Cleveland. Last season, they ranked 12th in the American League in runs scored, 12th in OPS, and dead last in homers. 

Projected rotation

  1. Shane Bieber, RHP
  2. Triston McKenzie, RHP
  3. Tanner Bibee, RHP
  4. Gavin Williams, RHP
  5. Logan Allen, LHP

The Guards' rotation last season ranked ninth in the majors in starters' ERA and 14th in starters' FIP. One of the keys to this season will be getting better health from McKenzie. In 2023, he was limited to just four starts because of shoulder problems, followed by elbow problems. All that arm trouble raises concerns for the future, but Cleveland needs "Dr. Sticks" to get back to his 2022 level of performance and durability. 

Projected bullpen

The Guards' pen in 2023 ranked ninth in the majors in relief ERA and 10th in bullpen FIP. Clase, the closer, while he was still quite effective, showed some concerning signs. To wit, he saw his cutter and slider velocity dip, and his strikeout, whiff, and chase rates all declined. Those situations bear monitoring in 2024. Behind him, the Guards have depth issues when it comes to middle relief. 

Will Shane Bieber get his fastball back? 

While Cleveland's ace turned in a solid season in 2023, some troubling trends persisted. Most notably, Bieber has seen his fastball velocity continue a pattern of decline, and at the same he's struggled to strike out batters. Bieber's average fastball velocity peaked during his Cy Young campaign of 2020 at 94.1 mph. In 2021, that figure slipped to 92.8 mph, and in each of the past two seasons, the pitch has averaged 91.3 mph, which puts Bieber in the 13th percentile among big-league pitchers in fastball velo. It's a troubling trend, particularly in a pitcher who hasn't yet turned 30, and for a pitch, Bieber throws a plurality of the time. Not surprisingly, he's not getting the desired effect, as hitters in 2022 and 2023 put up an xwOBA (what's this?) of .381 and .380, respectively. That can't continue. 

Potentially, there's good news for Bieber and the Guardians. Bieber spent the winter trying to rediscover his lost velocity, among other training tasks, and as you're about to see, he had some promising results: 

In his first start of spring training he was sitting 94 with his fastball. If he's able to sustain those gains, he could get back to ace level as opposed to "merely" being good. 

Will the offense get better?

As noted, last season the Cleveland offense was near the bottom of the AL in some key measures. That needs to change in 2024 if the Guards are going to get back to above .500 and contend for a playoff spot. Straightaway, it's worth noting that last season Cleveland hitters as a group were pretty unlucky. Their quality of contact was better than their batted-ball results, and that's a modestly positive indicator moving forward. 

On an individual level, José Ramírez remains at his offensive peak and should produce like an MVP candidate again in 2024. Brothers Josh and Bo Naylor, the club's 1B/DH and catcher, respectively, are two of the most gifted non-Ramírez hitters on the roster. Both will be regulars this season – neither managed a qualifying number of plate appearances in 2023 – and the increase in their playing time should benefit the offense. Youngsters on the way – shortstop Brayan Rocchio (presumably) and 1B/DH Kyle Manzardo – should help improve two of the lineup's weak spots from a season ago. Maybe Chase DeLauter arrives by mid-season and forces Myles Straw, one of the worst hitters in baseball among lineup regulars, to a reserve role. There are paths to improvement, and most of them hinge on the Guardians' young hitters. 

What would make for a successful season?

It will take a division title, and they have a reasonable chance of pulling that off. The Twins were the better team last year by a significant margin, but the Minnesota rotation took a pair of body blows via the free-agent departures of Sonny Gray and Kenta Maeda. That leaves a thin and suspect crop of starters behind ace Pablo López. As well, the Minny lineup is built around two notable injury risks in Byron Buxton and Carlos Correa. The Twins probably still have the edge on paper – and projection systems largely agree with that – but the error bars in the eminently winnable AL Central are wide indeed. A rejuvenated Bieber, plus the influx of young hitters, could return Cleveland to the top of the divisional heap.