The Twins held an 8-2 lead over the Astros through seven innings on Monday afternoon, thanks in part to another excellent outing from Ervin Santana (who now has a 1.75 ERA) and a seven-run fifth inning. Per fangraphs.com, the Twins had a 99.1 percent chance to win the game.
The final score would end up 16-8 in favor of the Astros. Say what?
The Astros scored a whopping 11 runs in the top of the eighth inning, bursting through the gate to essentially steal the victory. Just looking at the play-by-play account is remarkable.
The Carlos Beltran homer was definitely the "say uncle" moment. Or from the Twins' point of view, it might as well have been the "our pets heads are falling off!" moment.
As if they weren't torturing the Twins enough, the Astros would add three more in the ninth.
Take a look at the win expectancy chart just falling off a cliff:
Source: FanGraphs
When 99.1 percent becomes zero percent.
The history here is pretty astounding. The Astros hadn't scored 11 runs in an inning since July 18, 1994, reports Brian McTaggart of astros.com. Further, Elias Sports Bureau notes that the Astros franchise was previously 0-659 when trailing by at least six runs entering the eighth inning.
Through seven innings, the Astros had two runs on five hits. They'd end with 16 runs on 18 hits. Beltran had four hits while Carlos Correa, Jose Altuve and Marwin Gonzalez had three each. Correa, Beltran and Alex Bregman homered.
Just an insane inning and finish for the Astros. They are now 36-16, holding a double-digit lead in the AL West and boasting the best record in baseball. Games like we saw on Monday are the types that make you think there's something special going on this season.
