The last time the ALCS did not feature the Houston Astros, Coco Crisp and B.J. Upton took part in it. That's how long ago it was. We're only a few weeks from that changing, though, because the Astros' seven-year run of making the ALCS every single year has come to end. The AL West champions have been taken down by the Detroit Tigers in the Wild Card Series.
The season wasn't a total loss. The Astros overcame a 12-24 start and a litany of starting pitching injuries to win the AL West for the seventh straight full season. On the flip side, the 88 regular-season wins were the lowest full-season total since 2016 for this bunch. The roster wasn't nearly as deep as in the past.
Might the AL West reign be coming to an end shortly after the Astros' run of ALCS berths did? They've got some work to do in the offseason. Let's check it out.
The foundation of a winner is in place
The Astros are already heading into 2025 with an offensive nucleus of Jose Altuve, Yordan Alvarez and Kyle Tucker. Few teams can match that. Shortstop Jeremy Peña and catcher Yainer Diaz are under team control for several more years, too, so there's a firm foundation on the position-player side around which to build.
Framber Valdez, Hunter Brown, Ronel Blanco and Spencer Arrighetti are back on the pitching side while Josh Hader is locked up to lock down the bullpen.
This wasn't an exhaustive list, just a quick illustration that the Astros will be a formidable ballclub again heading to 2025.
It is not a complete team, though. Not without addressing a few areas of concern.
The Bregman issue
We've seen the Astros let big-time position players walk in free agency before and still remain atop the AL West, specifically George Springer and Carlos Correa.
Will Bregman follow them out the door? He's set to hit free agency this offseason. General manager Dana Brown is hopeful that something can get done, but Bregman has said he doesn't want to discuss it until the season is over. Well, it's over now.
The third baseman came up in 2016 and was a full-time player by 2017, so he's been a fixture with this group just as much as Altuve. Bregman finished fifth in MVP voting in 2018 and second in 2019. He's now heading to his age-31 season, though, and he just hit .260/.315/.453 (118 OPS+) with 26 homers, 75 RBI and 4.1 WAR. For a point of comparison, he had 7.9 WAR in 2018 and 8.9 in 2019. He's already starting to decline, so how will he age into his mid-30s?
But can the Astros afford to lose him? The bottom portion of their lineup this season in the playoffs felt significantly less imposing than their elite-level teams in past years.
Maybe the Astros decide to let Bregman walk and replace him with top infield prospect Zach Dezenzo, who hit .333/.425/.573 in 25 Triple-A games?
That's the decision facing Brown this winter.
Similarly, the Astros also might want to address Tucker and Valdez, both of whom are set to hit free agency after the 2025 season. They feel too important to the team's plans of contention to worry about them leaving right now, but waiting might be the move Brown makes again.
What about first base?
First basemen need to be able to play adequate defense, sure. It's a plus if they are great at picking throws in the dirt. Mostly, though, teams need offense from that corner, specifically home run power. Astros first basemen this season hit .226/.291/.360 with 18 homers and 68 RBI. Their .651 OPS out of first base ranked 26th of 30 teams in baseball.
That needs to be addressed regardless, but let's say Bregman walks and Dezenzo is handed the keys to third base. Maybe that allows the Astros to swing big at first? Pete Alonso hits free agency this winter. So does Christian Walker. Cody Bellinger might (he has more value in the outfield, it should be noted). Paul Goldschmidt is hitting his decline, but it's always possible a one-year deal could be reached. Vladimir Guerrero Jr. is set to hit free agency after the 2025 season, but it's always possible the Blue Jays can't sign him to an extension and can be convinced to trade him.
Those are only the biggest splashes. Other moves could be made, but starting a backup catcher at first base in the playoffs just, as the kids say, ain't it. Yes, Victor Caratini was their playoff first baseman.
If they do extend Bregman long term, it seems like some infield shuffling could be done to alleviate the first-base issue. Of note: Dezenzo is 6-foot-5 and has first base experience.
The rotation depth
Cristian Javier and José Urquidy were lost for the season due to Tommy John surgery in June, meaning they definitely won't be ready at the start of 2025 and there's no guarantee they'll be back at all next season. Luis Garcia's status is still up in the air after his Tommy John surgery. J.P. France had shoulder surgery in July. Who knows if Lance McCullers will ever get right at this point, given all the setbacks he's suffered.
Justin Verlander's option did not vest, so he hits free agency and he might well be cooked at age 41, even though he says he wants to pitch again. Yusei Kikuchi is a free agent.
That's a lot of rotation issues for one organization to endure.
The Astros, as noted above, do have Valdez, Brown, Blanco and Arrighetti in house. They need more than that, of course, and I'm not sure they can count on just one addition -- along with any returns from the above-mentioned injuries -- being enough to keep them atop the AL West.
Brown and the rest of his front office have some work to do here. Two outside additions to pair with Brown and Blanco behind Valdez, making Arrighetti the sixth starter, seems like the best course of action. It just depends on if the Astros have the resources available. Assuming they either re-sign Bregman or spend money to address first base, would they have the prospect currency needed to trade for a mid-rotation or frontline starter? Would ownership make more money available to address the rotation in free agency in addition to Bregman and/or a first baseman?
The bullpen
Josh Hader is locked and loaded here through 2028, so there's no reason to discuss him. He does need to pitch better though.
Former closer Ryan Pressly has a $14 million mutual option for next season. Even if the Astros wanted to keep him -- and they might be better served spending the money elsewhere -- surely he wants to get back to closing.
Bryan Abreu is still under team control for two more years, so he can set up for Hader anyway. Tayler Scott is also under contract for a few years.
Brown can likely build the rest of the bullpen from inside the organization or with scrap-heap pickups. Remember, Scott was one of those and he was outstanding for the Astros this year before his injury.
The bottom line
The Astros will be contenders again in 2025, but the strong foundation is shrinking and compromised. Major decisions need to be made regarding first base, third base and the rotation. This will be one of the more interesting teams to watch in the offseason.
