Now that the regular season has (finally) concluded, the 2024 MLB postseason begins Tuesday with the best-of-three Wild Card Series. The Braves and Mets split their makeup doubleheader at Truist Park on Monday, which punched their tickets to October. The Diamondbacks were eliminated in the process.
This is Year 3 of the 12-team postseason format and the playoffs begin Tuesday. Here is this year's postseason bracket:
AMERICAN LEAGUE
Bye: No. 1 Yankees and No. 2 Guardians
Wild Card: No. 6 Tigers at No. 3 Astros (winner plays Guardians)
Wild Card: No. 5 Royals at No. 4 Orioles (winner plays Yankees)
NATIONAL LEAGUE
Bye: No. 1 Dodgers and No. 2 Phillies
Wild Card: No. 6 Mets at No. 3 Brewers (winner plays Phillies)
Wild Card: No. 5 Braves at No. 4 Padres (winner plays Dodgers)
The Tigers are back in the postseason for the first time since 2014 and the Royals reached the postseason after losing 106 games a year ago. What remarkable turnarounds for those two teams, Detroit in-season and Kansas City from last year. Only one team this postseason, the Brewers, is searching for their first ever World Series championship.
My preseason bold predictions weren't great, though I did nail a few, and my motto is if you get a lot of bold predictions correct, you weren't bold enough. Or at least that's what I tell myself to feel better. Anyway, let's do some postseason bold predictions, shall we? Let's get to it.
1. The Mets will steal Game 1
And that will make it three wins in three days in two cities, but with two travel days. The Mets beat the Brewers in Milwaukee on Sunday, traveled to Atlanta for Monday's doubleheader, won the first game to clinch a postseason spot, lost the second, then had to travel back to Milwaukee for the Wild Card Series on Tuesday. Our first bold prediction says the Mets will steal Game 1 and complete the three wins in three days in two cities with two travel days circuit.
What do we mean by steal Game 1? We mean the Brewers will take a lead into the top of the ninth inning, closer Devin Williams will blow it, then the Mets will seal the win with closer Edwin Díaz watching from the dugout. Díaz threw 26 pitches Sunday and 40 pitches (across two innings) Monday, so that's 66 pitches the last two days. Hard to think he'll be available Tuesday. That's our first bold prediction. The Mets, despite all their travel and not having their closer available, will win Game 1 against the Brewers.
2. Ohtani will go 5-5
It's not as impressive as going 50-50 (or 54-59, really), but going 5-5 in a single postseason series would be equally unprecedented. Shohei Ohtani added stolen bases to his game this year -- he stole 59 bases in 2024 after stealing 57 bases from 2021-23 -- and there's no reason to think that won't continue in October. His speed is so valuable. And, obviously, the power is immense.
Our next bold prediction says Ohtani will hit five home runs and steal five bases in a series this postseason. Not go 5-5 in the entire postseason, in a single series. Only nine players have hit five homers in a postseason series and none of them stole multiple bases in the series as well. Here are those nine players:
| Series | HR | SB | |
|---|---|---|---|
2011 ALCS | 6 | 0 | |
Reggie Jackson, Yankees | 1977 World Series | 5 | 0 |
Ken Griffey Jr., Mariners | 1995 ALDS | 5 | 1 |
Juan Gonzalez, Rangers | 1996 ALDS | 5 | 0 |
Chase Utley, Phillies | 2009 World Series | 5 | 1 |
George Springer, Astros | 2017 World Series | 5 | 0 |
Corey Seager, Dodgers | 2020 NLCS | 5 | 0 |
Adolis García, Rangers | 2023 ALCS | 5 | 1 |
Kyle Schwarber, Phillies | 2023 NLCS | 5 | 0 |
Lots of players have stolen five bases in a postseason series (21 to be precise). The five homers will be the hard part (not that five steals will be easy). And, of course, homers and steals are at odds with each other. When you hit a homer, you can't steal a base, and you only to get so many at-bats in a series. We're predicting Ohtani will get on base a lot. A LOT.
And, of course, Ohtani hitting that many home runs in a series opens up the possibility that the other team will start walking him. I'm not too concerned about that though, because Mookie Betts and Freddie Freeman hit behind him. It's a pick your poison situation. I don't think intentional walks will be too big of an issue. The question is whether Ohtani hits so many home runs that he doesn't give himself chances to steal. Regardless, we're predicting the first 5-5 series.
3. Another Yankee will out-OPS Judge or Soto
In Aaron Judge and Juan Soto, the Yankees have the American League's two best hitters anchoring their lineup. Judge led baseball with a 1.159 OPS this year and Soto was third with a .988 OPS, behind Ohtani (1.036 OPS). The Yankees have basically no path to winning the World Series without Judge and Soto having monster postseasons. That applies to pretty much every playoff team. They all need their two best players to have great Octobers.
This bold prediction calls for another Yankee to have a monster postseason and finish a higher OPS than either Judge or Soto. To put it another way, we're predicting Judge or Soto will lead the Yankees in postseason OPS, someone else with finish second, and then the other one of Judge or Soto will finish third. This does not mean we expect Judge or Soto to have a bad October! Only that we're predicting a third Yankee will emerge as a dominant third wheel, offensively.
Who will this third wheel will be? We'll go with Giancarlo Stanton, who finished the regular season strong and has been a steady power presence for the Yankees in October. He's hit 11 home runs with a .973 OPS in 27 career postseason games. Not hard to see how Stanton could go on a heater, pop a bunch of homers in a short period of time, and finish with a higher postseason OPS than Judge or Soto. Point is, we're predicting New York's two-man offensive army gets a third member.
4. Jobe will be this year's K-Rod
This is the Golden Age of out-of-nowhere great postseason relievers. The charter member of this club is six-time All-Star Francisco Rodriguez, who made his MLB debut on Sept. 18 for the 2002 Angels, appeared in five regular season games, then was a force in October as the Halos won the franchise's only World Series title. Last year Orion Kerkering made his MLB debut on Sept. 24, pitched in three regular season games for the Phillies, then was getting high-leverage outs in October.
This year's K-Rod (or Kerkering) will be Tigers righty Jackson Jobe, we boldly predict. Jobe, arguably the top pitching prospect in the game, got called up last Tuesday, and it's hard to think he won't be on Detroit's postseason roster. Jobe is one of their 12-13 most talented pitchers and the Tigers lean so heavily on their bullpen that it makes sense to carry him on October.
Jobe threw four scoreless innings in two regular season appearances, the first two relief appearances of his professional career. Clearly, the Tigers believe he can handle a bullpen assignment. If they called up him in the middle of their wild-card push, there's no reason to think they'll be shy about using him in October. We boldly predict Jobe will get a lot of important outs and be this postseason's lockdown reliever who wasn't even on the big league roster on Sept. 1.
5. Ramírez will have an Arozarena postseason
As great a player as he is -- and he is great -- José Ramírez's postseason resume is not exactly sterling. He's a career .242/.291/.347 hitter with two home runs in 32 career postseason games. There is no reason Ramírez can't be a great postseason hitter -- he's a switch-hitter with power who rarely swings and misses, making him basically the perfect hitter -- but he hasn't been to date. I blame the randomness of baseball's postseason and not some character flaw with Ramírez.
Our next bold prediction says that changes this October, and Ramírez goes nuclear for the AL Central-winning Guardians. In 2020, Randy Arozarena slugged 10 home runs with a 1.273 OPS in 20 postseason games for the Rays. I don't think Ramírez will hit 10 homers this postseason -- that's a lot of dingers -- but let's predict he averages one homer every other game with a 1.250 OPS or better, which is what Handsome Randy did in 2020. This will be Ramírez's long-awaited October breakout. It's time.
6. There will be a series-ending walk-off
Getting eliminated in the postseason is always rough. Having your season end on a walk-off? That ruins your entire offseason. Well, maybe it's not that bad, but it is pretty bad. One minute you're in the game and maybe even have the lead, then bam, it's all over. The last series-ending walk-off was Oscar Gonzalez's 15th inning walk-off homer in Game 2 of the 2022 Wild Card Series against the Rays. Here is the last pitch of Tampa's 2022 season:
Our next bold prediction says one team's season will end the hard way, and there will be a walk-off in a series-deciding game. Let's call it a walk-off double down the line rather than a home run. We'll leave the teams and players open-ended, but will say this walk-off season-ender comes in Game 3 of the Wild Card Series. This Thursday, in other words.
7. The Wild Card Series bye is a good thing, actually
The narrative has taken hold that the Wild Card Series bye is a bad thing because your hitters lose rhythm during the five-day break between the end of the regular season and the start of the Division Series. I understand why this is a thing, especially after the D-backs and Rangers went from wild-card contenders to the World Series last year. I just don't buy it.
The fact of the matter is this is only the third year of this postseason format. The previous two years aren't nearly enough to say for certain that skipping a round hurts more than it helps. The Astros won seven straight out of the bye in 2022 (and, you know, the World Series). The Yankees went to the ALCS out of a bye in 2022 too. Did the Dodgers get swept in the NLDS last year because their hitters went cold during the bye, or because their starters allowed 13 runs in four innings in three games?
Our next bold prediction says the narrative will flip this year and the Wild Card Series bye will prove to be a good thing. We'll know that because three of the four teams that have a bye -- Dodgers, Guardians, Phillies, Yankees -- will win the Division Series and advance to the Championship Series. Which three teams? We won't say, but three of the four advance. That's our prediction.
8. Houston's ALCS streak ends
You have to go back to 2016 for the last time the Astros did not go to the ALCS. Their seven-year Championship Series streak is the longest in American League history and the second longest in baseball history behind the Braves, who went to the NLCS eight straight years from 1991-99 (not including the canceled 1994 postseason). The last ALCS without the Astros was Blue Jays vs. Cleveland in 2016. Andrew Miller was named ALCS MVP that year.
There is no superteam this season -- there was no 100-win team for the first time since 2014 -- and that is especially true in the AL, where the Orioles are missing multiple starters and the Yankees have a bullpen that is less than dominant. Would it surprise anyone if the Astros came out of the AL again? It shouldn't. I think every fan outside of Houston is sick of seeing the Astros making deep runs in the postseason, but it's entirely possible it will happen again this year. The Astros are inevitable.
Despite that, our next bold prediction says Houston's ALCS streak ends this year. Unlike 2022 and 2023, the Astros did not get a bye, so they have to play two rounds just to get to the ALCS. That cuts into their ALCS odds right out of the gate. Also, it seems Yordan Alvarez will be less than 100% given his recent knee issue, plus the top of the rotation and lineup depth is less imposing than in the past. And again, they have to play an extra round. Houston's ALCS reign ends in 2024. We boldly predict it.
9. Relievers will throw more innings than starters
This would not be a first! In 2021, relievers threw more innings than starters in the postseason, thanks to large part to injuries to key starters like Jack Flaherty (shoulder), Tyler Glasnow (elbow), Clayton Kershaw (forearm), Charlie Morton (leg), and Justin Verlander (elbow). The Braves used openers in Games 4 and 5 of the World Series, you may recall.
Here are the starter and reliever workloads in recent postseasons:
| Starter IP | Reliever IP | |
|---|---|---|
2023 | 377 1/3 | 350 1/3 |
2022 | 400 2/3 | 331 2/3 |
2021 | 293 | 359 2/3 |
2020 | 466 1/3 | 468 |
2019 | 380 | 278 1/3 |
The 2020 postseason was unusual (16 teams, no off-days in the first three rounds, etc.) and yet relievers threw only 1 2/3 innings more than starters. In the 2021 postseason, relievers threw 66 2/3 innings more than starters, which is just an insane number. Openers and bullpen games were at their peak that year. Add in the injuries and you got a lot of reliever innings.
For this bold prediction, we're saying relievers will throw more innings than starters in October, and not by a little either. At least 50. That's the prediction. Relievers throw at least 50 more innings than starters in the postseason. I don't love it, an endless parade of relievers takes something away from the game, I believe, but conditions seems ripe for a lot of bullpen work.
Consider: Glasnow (elbow), Kershaw (toe), Paul Blackburn (back), Nestor Cortes (elbow), and Grayson Rodriguez (lat) are among the potential postseason starters who recently went down with injuries and whose October availability is in question, if not ruled out entirely. More recently others like Kodai Senga (calf) and Alex Cobb (blister) were slowed on their path back to the mound.
The Dodgers will have to cobble a rotation together this postseason. Ditto the Guardians, albeit to a lesser extent. The Tigers have been using openers and bullpen games regularly for two months now. The Brewers will piece things together too. Basically, other than the Padres and Phillies, every postseason team has a question or two in their rotation. Bullpens will rule the day in October.
10. A starter will throw the final pitch of the World Series
An actual relief pitcher has thrown the final pitch of the last three World Series, but, in the four years before that, a starter pitcher came out of the bullpen to get the final out three times. Here is the final out of the last seven World Series:
| Year | Outcome | Pitcher | Final out |
|---|---|---|---|
2023 | Rangers over D-backs | Josh Sborz | Ketel Marte strikes out looking |
2022 | Astros over Phillies | Ryan Pressly | Nick Castellanos pop out in foul territory |
2021 | Braves over Astros | Will Smith | Yuli Gurriel ground out to short |
2020 | Dodgers over Rays | Julio Urías | Willy Adames strikes out looking |
2019 | Nationals over Astros | Daniel Hudson | Michael Brantley strikes out swinging |
2018 | Red Sox over Dodgers | Chris Sale | Manny Machado strikes out swinging |
2017 | Astros over Dodgers | Charlie Morton | Corey Seager ground out to second |
Bullpen roles are more fluid than ever and the line between starter and reliever can often become blurred. We (probably) won't ever see something as extreme as Patrick Corbin's postseason usage in 2019 again (three starts and five relief appearances), but starters pitching out of the bullpen in October is hardly unprecedented. The Rangers used Jordan Montgomery in relief in Game 7 of the ALCS last year, remember.
So, our final bold prediction calls for a repeat of 2017, 2018, and 2020, with a pitcher who traditionally works as a starter getting the final out of the World Series. Note: We are not explicitly saying that a starting pitcher will come out of the bullpen! We're leaving open the possibility of a complete game in the World Series clincher and gosh, that would be so fun. Unlikely, but fun. That's the bold prediction though. A starting pitcher will be on the mound for the final out of the World Series.
