Major League Baseball's four Division Series will begin on Saturday. The best-of-five matchups include the Atlanta Braves taking on the Philadelphia Phillies in a rematch from last fall, as well as the Los Angeles Dodgers facing the Arizona Diamondbacks, the Baltimore Orioles going against the Texas Rangers, and the Houston Astros meeting the Minnesota Twins. The winners will advance to their respective League Championship Series, where they'll then play for a chance to claim the pennant and a spot in the World Series. (You can check out the full postseason bracket and schedule by clicking here.)
Before the Division Series gets underway, we here at CBS Sports wanted to highlight one potential "X-factor" in each matchup. That is, in short, a sneaky aspect that could play an outsized role in determining the series' outcome. In two of the four series, we've pointed out an area where one team's strength meets the other's weakness. In the other two, we've focused on an overlap in strengths. Of course, it should be noted that anything can happen in a three-to-five-game series, and that these should not necessarily be treated as fatal flaws -- even if they do end up serving as interesting subplots.
Now, let's get to it.
1. Arizona Diamondbacks vs. Los Angeles Dodgers
The X-factor: The running game
The Dodgers are good at many things, but not preventing stolen bases. Los Angeles surrendered the fifth-most steals during the regular season. The Diamondbacks, meanwhile, ranked second in the majors in stolen bases. Remember that MLB's rule changes -- specifically the disengagements limit and the wider bases -- led to the league's highest stolen-base rate since 1997.
An inability to stop the running game is often blamed on the catcher. That misunderstands the dynamic, though, as most stolen bases are the pitcher's fault. That appears to be the case with the Dodgers. Backstop Will Smith ranks 12th in the majors in pop time, the duration between when the ball hits the mitt versus when it reaches the middle infielder's glove. His arm is on the weaker side among big-league catchers, but he makes up for it with a quick exchange. Smith actually compares favorably with Diamondbacks catcher Gabriel Moreno in those respects. (Moreno's status for the series is unclear after he was struck in the head by a follow-through on Wednesday.)
| Catcher | Arm strength | Exchange | Average distance |
|---|---|---|---|
Smith | 80.2 mph | 0.62 seconds | 55.4 feet |
Moreno | 79.5 mph | 0.61 seconds | 55.8 feet |
Despite similar metrics, Smith has surrendered 72 stolen bases with just a 21% caught stealing rate; Moreno has surrendered 35 stolen bases with a 39% caught stealing rate. There's more to be considered than just the above numbers -- for instance, throw placement -- but you get the idea: it's not necessarily on Smith if the Diamondbacks start running wild.
Create it.
— Arizona Diamondbacks (@Dbacks) September 20, 2023
Embrace it.
Full on chaos. pic.twitter.com/RPxrkudQJd
The biggest offenders on the Dodgers side are Bobby Miller, Clayton Kershaw, and a slew of relievers, including Brusdar Graterol, Shelby Miller, and Phil Bickford. That could be a costly flaw in late-and-close games. On the D-backs' side, the best thieves are Corbin Carroll, Geraldo Perdomo, Tommy Pham, and -- believe it or not -- first baseman Christian Walker. Walker went 11 for 11 during the regular season, oftentimes with two outs in the inning.
By the way, the Dodgers gave up the most stolen bases this season to … the Diamondbacks. Arizona went 14 for 15 on attempts across 13 games. Expect them to keep running this series.
2. Philadelphia Phillies vs. Atlanta Braves
The X-factor: Fastballs/sinkers located in the lower half of the strike zone
It's no secret that the Phillies like to throw their fastballs. They ranked fifth in the majors in cumulative fastball-sinker usage during the regular season. It's also no secret that they like to locate those fastballs and sinkers in the lower half of the strike zone; they ranked fifth in that respect.
Things are going to get novel now, as the Phillies will take on a Braves squad that ranked first in team OPS on fastballs and sinkers located in that part of the zone. In other words, this is going to be an instance of strength-on-strength.
The Phillies' pitchers most likely to attack the Braves in that manner based on their regular-season usage patterns include starters Aaron Nola and Ranger Suárez, as well as relievers Cristopher Sánchez, Gregory Soto, and Seranthony Domínguez. As for the Braves' hitters best-suited to take advantage of those pitches … well, let's just make this simple and throw out a table:
| Batter | PA | OPS |
|---|---|---|
160 | 1.188 | |
153 | 1.1182 | |
134 | 1.118 | |
Ronald Acuña Jr. | 205 | 1.001 |
109 | .998 | |
112 | .955 | |
204 | .933 |
For those not keeping count as you scrolled, that's seven of the Braves' everyday players who had at least a .930 OPS in plate appearances that ended with a fastball or sinker located down in the zone. That's absurd.
54 homers in 54 seconds for the 2023 home run king, Matt Olson. 💪 pic.twitter.com/glmOLrM5wU
— MLB (@MLB) October 2, 2023
The Phillies overcame the Braves in last October's NLDS. They weren't as successful in head-to-head matchups during the 2023 regular season, going 5-8 in those contests and being outscored by 16 runs. This might help explain why.
3. Minnesota Twins vs. Houston Astros
The X-factor: Breaking ball usage
Whereas the Phillies might need to deviate from their usual gameplan in order to shut down the Braves, the Astros may want to lean even more into theirs. Houston's pitching staff threw the fifth-highest percentage of breaking balls during the regular season. Their ALDS foes, the Twins, ranked 20th in OPS against said breaking balls. Just one other playoff team ranked lower than 14th: the since-eliminated Milwaukee Brewers, who checked in at 24th.
Only three Twins hitters who could conceivably see a lot of playing time this series had an OPS north of .700 against breakers during the regular season: catcher Ryan Jeffers, infielder Royce Lewis, and outfielder Matt Wallner. Conversely, the trio of Alex Kirilloff, Jorge Polanco, and Michael A. Taylor each had OPS below .600. The Twins as a team had a 35% whiff rate on breakers, with the biggest relevant offenders being Edouard Julien (44%), Wallner (41%), and Taylor (40.7%).
On the flip side, the Astros ranked fifth in breaking ball usage overall, and employ eight pitchers who made at least 10 appearances with the team and threw more than 35% breaking balls:
| Pitcher | G (w/Astros) | ERA (w/Astros) | Breaking ball% |
|---|---|---|---|
65 | 3.58 | 66.5% | |
68 | 3.00 | 63.7% | |
72 | 1.75 | 58.8% | |
17 | 4.50 | 50.8% | |
31 | 5.09 | 48.9% | |
14 | 5.52 | 47.5% | |
11 | 3.31 | 44.1% | |
31 | 4.56 | 37.5% |
It's not so simple as to say the Astros should spam the Twins with breaking balls -- not every pitcher is comfortable with that approach, and it won't always be effective if the pitcher lacks feel for locating his breaker that day. But then, these Astros once saw Lance McCullers Jr. throw 24 consecutive curveballs to secure the AL pennant:
So, in a sense, maybe it is that simple for them.
4. Texas Rangers vs. Baltimore Orioles
The X-factor: Pitches located on the outer half
We'll conclude with one more strength-on-strength situation. The Orioles threw the second-most pitches located on the outer third of the plate during the regular season of any MLB team. The Rangers ranked No. 1 in OPS on pitches in the same location.
Texas' best weapon in this series might be outfielder Adolis García. Not only did he post a .938 OPS on outer-third pitches, he also homered a majors-leading 18 times. Only one other batter, Pete Alonso, had as many as 14 home runs on outer-third pitches. Moreover, the Rangers as a team homered just 48 times on outer-third pitches. García's strength and plate coverage make him a threat to jump the fence from pole to pole. (The Orioles found that out the hard way in April, when he hit this home run off Kyle Gibson.)
Five other Rangers batters had at least a .750 OPS on outer-third pitches: Nathaniel Lowe, Travis Jankowski, Corey Seager, Evan Carter, and Mitch Garver.
On the Orioles' side of the equation, they had three starting pitchers rank within the top-20 in all of the majors in pitches located to the outer-third: Dean Kremer (who led the majors in that category), Gibson (fifth), and Kyle Bradish (19th). That suggests the first and second times through the lineup in this series could be about who can own the outer portion of the plate.
