The defending world champion Atlanta Braves had little trouble in their last two appearances in the National League Division Series, sweeping Miami in 2020 before knocking off Milwaukee in four games last year. The club also excelled on its own field last postseason, winning seven of its eight home contests. The five-time reigning NL East champion Braves hope both trends continue in the 2022 MLB playoffs when they host the division-rival Philadelphia Phillies for Game 1 of the 2022 NL Division Series on Tuesday. Atlanta split its first six home meetings with Philadelphia during the regular season before sweeping a three-game series in mid-September.
First pitch at Truist Park is set for 1:07 p.m. ET. Atlanta is a -205 money-line favorite (risk $205 to win $100) in the latest Braves vs. Phillies odds from Caesars Sportsbook. The Phillies are +170 underdogs, while the over/under for total runs scored is 7.5. Before making any Phillies vs. Braves picks, you need to see the MLB predictions and betting advice from SportsLine's advanced computer model.
The SportsLine Projection Model simulates every MLB game 10,000 times, and it enters the divisional round on a 20-11 roll on top-rated MLB money-line picks, returning more than $600. This is the same model that pegged the 2021 Atlanta Braves at 10-1 as one of three best bets to win it all last season. Anybody who has followed it has seen huge returns.
Now, the model has set its sights on Braves vs. Phillies, and just locked in its picks and MLB predictions. You can head to SportsLine now to see the model's picks. Here are several MLB odds and betting lines for Phillies vs. Braves:
- Braves vs. Phillies money line: Atlanta -205, Philadelphia +170
- Braves vs. Phillies over/under: 7.5 runs
- Braves vs. Phillies run line: Atlanta -1.5 (+110)
- ATL: The Braves are 36-17 in their last 53 home contests against Philadelphia
- PHI: The Phillies are 5-1 in their last six Division Series road games
- Braves vs. Phillies picks: See picks here
Why you should back the Braves
Atlanta brought the power during the regular season, leading the NL with 243 home runs -- 24 more than second-place Milwaukee. Austin Riley led the club with a career-high 38 blasts while Matt Olson belted 34, including six over his final nine games. The Braves set a franchise record as eight players launched 15 or more shots, with William Contreras hitting two of his personal-best 20 off Phillies Game 1 starter Ranger Suarez.
Max Fried went 0-1 in four starts against Philadelphia this year but allowed fewer than three runs in three of the turns, including a loss on Sept. 22 in which he yielded one run with eight strikeouts in five innings. The 28-year-old left-hander is hoping to pick up where he left off last postseason as he scattered four hits over six scoreless frames against Houston in Atlanta's Game 6 World Series-clinching victory. Fried has given up two runs or fewer in five of his nine starts over the last two postseasons, including three scoreless efforts.
Why you should back the Phillies
Philadelphia wasn't given much of a chance against St. Louis in their Wild Card Series and was two outs away from being blanked in Game 1 before staging a shocking six-run rally to win. It then received a stellar effort in Game 2 from Aaron Nola, who combined with three relievers on a shutout victory. Bryce Harper, the 2021 NL MVP who was limited to 99 games this year due to injuries, gave Nola and company all the support they needed with a solo homer in the second inning and finished 2-for-4.
Kyle Schwarber, who led the NL this season with a career-high 46 home runs, went 0-for-7 versus the Cardinals but drove in two of the Phillies' eight runs in the series with a pair of sacrifice flies. J.T. Realmuto and Nick Castellanos were a combined 1-for-13 in the Wild Card Series, but the former is hitting .333 (12-for-36) with three homers and nine RBI against Fried in his career while the latter has gone 5-for-9 versus the southpaw. Left-hander Suarez went 0-2 with a 4.09 ERA in his first four starts against Atlanta this year but was superb in a victory on Sept. 22, scattering five hits over six scoreless innings.
How to make Braves vs. Phillies picks
SportsLine's model is leaning Over on the total, projecting 8.3 total runs. It also says one side of the money line has all the value. You can only get the model's MLB picks at SportsLine.
So who wins Braves vs. Phillies? And which side has all the value? Visit SportsLine now to see which side of Phillies vs. Braves you need to jump on, all from the model that has crushed its MLB picks, and find out.
