The abbreviated 2020 regular season is finally here. The ongoing coronavirus pandemic forced the baseball world to shut down in mid-March, but we are getting a 60-game regular season and (hopefully) a full postseason. The 2020 season will begin with two games on Thursday, July 23. Friday, July 24, is the traditional Opening Day with a full slate of games.
Each year Opening Day brings a ton of quality pitching matchups. Every club starts whoever they deem their best available pitcher in the first game of the new season. You can't beat it. It's nothing but great matchups all day. Given that, it's time to compile our annual Opening Day pitching matchup rankings. The rankings are based on three factors:
- Pitcher Quality. The better the pitchers the better the matchup, right? Right.
- Intrigue. Is someone making their first start with a new team? Facing his former team? Coming back from injury?
- Watchability. The most subjective factor. How fun is it to watch these guys pitch?
So, with that in mind, here are our 2020 Opening Day pitching matchup rankings. There are 10 Cy Young awards and two MVPs among this year's Opening Day starters.
1. Gerrit Cole, Yankees vs. Max Scherzer, Nationals
An easy call for the top spot this year. Cole is making his second career Opening Day start and his first start in pinstripes since signing his pitcher record $324 million contract with the Yankees. He struck out 326 batters last season -- 326! -- the most since Randy Johnson struck out 334 batters in 2002, and the most by a right-handed pitcher since Nolan Ryan struck out 341 batters in 1977. I'd say Cole is the odds-on favorite to be the best pitcher in baseball the next five seasons.
The best pitcher in baseball over the last five seasons is Scherzer -- his 34.5 WAR from 2015-19 leads all pitchers by more than four wins -- a three-time Cy Young award winner and a future Hall of Famer. His final summer camp start did not go well but I'm not worried about that at all. Scherzer got his World Series ring last year and this is Year 6 of his seven-year contract. It might be the best pitching contract in free agency history. The Yankees want nothing more than Cole's contract to work out as well as Scherzer's.
2. Hyun-Jin Ryu, Blue Jays vs. Charlie Morton, Rays
This matchup started further down in the rankings but, with each iteration, I kept moving it up, and here is it at No. 2. The more I think about it the more I love it. Not only are Ryu and Morton great pitchers -- the combined for a 2.70 ERA in 377 1/3 innings in 2019 -- but they're so different stylistically. Morton remains a power pitcher with video game stuff at age 36 ...
Charlie Morton, 94mph Fastball and 80mph Curveball Spin, Overlay pic.twitter.com/ooI111DvAf
— Rob Friedman (@PitchingNinja) October 7, 2019
... while Ryu settles into his rocking chair and lulls hitters to sleep with changeups and offspeed pitches. Equally effective and enjoyable in very different ways. Bonus points here for Ryu making his first start with the Blue Jays on Opening Day. Toronto opened their wallet to complement their impressive position player core with a high-end starter this winter.
3. Mike Soroka, Braves vs. Jacob deGrom, Mets
In the year of the dinger, Soroka's turbo-sinker allowed him to post the lowest home run rate (0.72 HR/9) in the National League as a rookie last season. That sinker gives him a chance to become the next Kevin Brown (hopefully with a sunnier disposition). deGrom is trying to become the third pitcher in history to win three straight Cy Youngs, joining Hall of Famers Randy Johnson and Greg Maddux (they each won four straight). Last week's back trouble is a non-issue and deGrom will be on the mound Friday.
4. Johnny Cueto, Giants vs. Clayton Kershaw, Dodgers
The OG pitching matchup. These two have combined for 14 career Opening Day starts (nine by Kershaw and five by Cueto), the most among this year's pitching matchups. Cueto missed most of last season with Tommy John surgery and I sorely missed watching him shimmy on the mound. He is fun and I am pro-fun. Kershaw is not what he was in his prime, but he threw 178 1/3 innings with a 3.03 ERA last season. You know you're good when that qualifies as a decline year.
5. Madison Bumgarner, Diamondbacks vs. Chris Paddack, Padres
The Padres chickened out and did not start Paddack on Opening Day last year -- he wanted it, but, to be fair, he'd never pitched above Double-A -- but there was little doubt he'd get the season opener this year. A 3.33 ERA in 140 2/3 innings ensured it (as did a lack of viable alternatives). Bumgarner's first start with his new team will be Opening Day. He famously hit two home runs in Arizona on Opening Day in 2017. Alas, he won't get a chance to hit this Opening Day thanks to the universal designated hitter.
6. Lucas Giolito, White Sox vs. Jose Berrios, Twins
It took maybe a little longer than everyone expected during his prospect days, but Giolito had his long-awaited breakout season last year, and he now ranks among the game's truly elite. Berrios is basically a veteran these days even though he is almost exactly the same age as Giolito. He's also one of the game's most GIF-able pitchers.
José Berríos, 94mph Two Seamer, 78mph Curveball and 85mph Changeup, Overlay.
— Rob Friedman (@PitchingNinja) September 17, 2019
[Added the 94mph Two Seamer from Abreu's AB to Jiménez's AB] pic.twitter.com/Pw2pJQ4tYx
This is the future of baseball Opening Day matchup. Two very good pitchers in their mid-20s who are still early in their careers. This might not be the last time the two AL Central rivals hook up on Opening Day. This one is figuratively circled on my e-calendar.
7. Brandon Woodruff, Brewers vs. Kyle Hendricks, Cubs
Similar to Morton vs, Ryu, there will be two very different styles on display here. Woodruff is a pure power pitcher who has flirted with triple digits at times. He is Milwaukee's leading "out-getter" -- manager Craig Counsell's term -- after striking out 143 and walking only 30 in 121 2/3 innings in 2019. Hendricks, meanwhile, is the game's preeminent command pitcher. His fastball sits mid-80s but his dead fish changeup makes it all work. In an era of huge velocity, he makes for a unique viewing experience.
8. Matthew Boyd, Tigers vs. Sonny Gray, Reds
The toughest matchup to place. Boyd struck out 238 batters in 185 1/3 innings last season. He also had the ninth highest ERA (4.56) among the 61 pitchers with enough innings to qualify for the ERA title. The fact a smart time like the Astros was after him at the deadline leads me to believe there's more in the tank. Gray, meanwhile, enjoyed a Cy Young caliber season in his first year with the Reds. An improved slider put him back among the game's great pitchers after a bumpy year and a half in New York.
9. German Marquez, Rockies vs. Lance Lynn, Rangers
Marquez was one of several Rockies pitchers to have a disappointing 2019 season after what appeared to be a breakout 2018. Still, his 405 strikeouts the last two seasons are 13th most in baseball (and seventh most in the National League) and his slider sure is pretty:
German Márquez, Disgusting 84mph Breaking Ball. 😷 pic.twitter.com/3UaRpKo89g
— Rob Friedman (@PitchingNinja) April 14, 2019
Lynn is a bit of a unicorn these days because he throws so many fastballs. Roughly nine out of every 10 pitches was some kind of fastball last year (four-seamer, sinker, cutter). Even with all the velocity in the game today, pitchers are throwing fewer fastballs with each passing season. That makes Lynn's fastball reliance unique. This is a sneaky great pitching matchup. Lynn and Marquez could mess around and take dueling no-hitters into the seventh inning on Opening Day.
10. Marco Gonzales, Mariners vs. Justin Verlander, Astros
We seem to have an inordinate number of power pitcher vs. finesse pitcher Opening Day matchups this year. Morton vs. Ryu, Woodruff vs. Hendricks, and now Verlander vs. Gonzales. Gonzales' fastball averaged 88.9 mph last season, barely ahead of Verlander's slider (87.5 mph). That's the fun thing about this game though. Players come in all shapes and sizes, and there is no one way to be effective. An extreme difference in styles here.
11. Joe Musgrove, Pirates vs. Jack Flaherty, Cardinals
Musgrove is a trendy breakout pick around these parts and Flaherty broke out big time last year. He allowed 12 runs (11 earned) in his final 16 starts and held hitters to a .139/.203/.217 batting line. Goodness. I don't believe Musgrove will ever be that good -- Flaherty good -- but I do think there's another level to his game, and Pittsburgh's new coaching staff and brain trust may be able to help him get there. After seeing so many pitchers leave and immediately get better (Cole, Morton, Tyler Glasnow, etc.), I hope Musgrove works out. Pirates fans deserve better.
12. Sandy Alcantara, Marlins vs. Aaron Nola, Phillies
Your 2019 leader in shutouts was Alcantara. With two. The times, they're changin'. Complete game humor aside, Alcantara was very good last season, throwing 197 1/3 innings with a 3.88 ERA. He fronts an under-the-radar rotation filled with upside. If the Marlins surprise people this year, the rotation figures to be the biggest reason. The juiced ball gave Nola problems last season but he's one of those guys who makes me wonder how anyone gets a hit ever.
Aaron Nola, 94mph Fastball and 81mph Curveball, Overlay. pic.twitter.com/VDjjfWfBz1
— Rob Friedman (@PitchingNinja) August 21, 2019
Every base hit is a miracle.
13. Danny Duffy, Royals vs. Shane Bieber, Indians
I worry I'm underrating this matchup. Bieber is just outstanding. He made the leap from good but not great prospect to bona fide MLB ace last season, and finished fourth in the Cy Young voting after striking out 259 batters in 214 1/3 innings. Bieber is on the very short list of the game's best young pitchers. Duffy was fine around injuries last year (4.34 ERA) but he's dragging this matchup down. If he can turn back the clock to 2016-17 for even one night, this'll be a fun matchup. We have to assume we're getting something close to 2018-19 Duffy though, and that guy isn't appointment viewing like Bieber.
14. Andrew Heaney, Angels vs. Frankie Montas, Athletics
Three months into last season, Montas was enjoying a breakout year that saw him post a 2.70 ERA in 90 innings. He was then suspended for performance-enhancing drugs. That really takes the shine off, huh? This will be a redemption season for Montas, who is looking to show last year's success was no fluke. The juiced ball really did a number on Heaney last year (1.89 HR/9) and staying healthy continues to be an issue, but I've always liked his wipeout slider.
15. Tommy Milone, Orioles vs. Nathan Eovaldi, Red Sox
If John Means (sore shoulder), Eduardo Rodriguez (COVID-19), or especially Chris Sale (Tommy John surgery) been available to pitch, this matchup might -- might -- not have ranked last. Woof.