Opening Day of the 2018 season is roughly a fortnight away, and Alex Cobb and Greg Holland are the last notable free agents left standing. So with all 30 rosters taking shape, it's time to look forward and get idea of how the season to come might unfold between late March and late September.
To do that, we'll lean on the the SportsLine (@SportsLine on Twitter) Projection Model, which simulates the season thousands of times to arrive at the projected results for each team. Obviously, these are subject to change in the event of injuries, additional signings, or trades.
First, let's have a look at the American League for 2018 ...
AMERICAN LEAGUE | SEASON FORECAST | REST OF SEASON | MAKE PLAYOFFS | POST-SEASON SUCCESS | ||||||||
WINS | LOSS | WIN% | WINS | LOSS | WIN% | WIN DIV | PLAYOFF | ALCS ODDS | LCS% | WS ODDS | WS% | |
Cleveland Indians | 97.1 | 64.9 | 60.0% | 97.1 | 64.9 | 60.0% | 91.6% | 95.1% | 3/1, 25% | 29.15% | 6/1, 14.3% | 13.40% |
Houston Astros | 94.7 | 67.3 | 58.5% | 94.7 | 67.3 | 58.5% | 75.1% | 87.1% | 5/2, 28.6% | 23.69% | 5/1, 16.7% | 10.03% |
Boston Red Sox | 94.3 | 67.7 | 58.2% | 94.3 | 67.7 | 58.2% | 49.2% | 84.8% | 5/1, 16.7% | 17.66% | 10/1, 9.1% | 6.58% |
New York Yankees | 93.0 | 69.0 | 57.4% | 93.0 | 69.0 | 57.4% | 40.5% | 81.2% | 3/1, 25% | 17.66% | 6/1, 14.3% | 7.76% |
Toronto Blue Jays | 84.0 | 78.0 | 51.9% | 84.0 | 78.0 | 51.9% | 8.4% | 36.9% | 15/1, 6.2% | 2.98% | 30/1, 3.2% | 0.81% |
Los Angeles Angels | 82.4 | 79.6 | 50.8% | 82.4 | 79.6 | 50.8% | 10.6% | 29.4% | 12/1, 7.7% | 2.17% | 25/1, 3.8% | 0.53% |
Seattle Mariners | 81.0 | 81.0 | 50.0% | 81.0 | 81.0 | 50.0% | 8.2% | 24.6% | 25/1, 3.8% | 2.00% | 50/1, 2% | 0.70% |
Minnesota Twins | 80.2 | 81.8 | 49.5% | 80.2 | 81.8 | 49.5% | 7.0% | 21.6% | 12/1, 7.7% | 1.69% | 25/1, 3.8% | 0.38% |
Texas Rangers | 78.3 | 83.7 | 48.3% | 78.3 | 83.7 | 48.3% | 4.4% | 14.4% | 100/1, 1% | 1.73% | 200/1, 0.5% | 0.57% |
Tampa Bay Rays | 76.1 | 85.9 | 47.0% | 76.1 | 85.9 | 47.0% | 1.2% | 9.0% | 100/1, 1% | 0.43% | 200/1, 0.5% | 0.11% |
Oakland Athletics | 73.8 | 88.2 | 45.5% | 73.8 | 88.2 | 45.5% | 1.6% | 5.5% | 100/1, 1% | 0.35% | 200/1, 0.5% | 0.08% |
Baltimore Orioles | 73.8 | 88.2 | 45.5% | 73.8 | 88.2 | 45.5% | 0.7% | 5.4% | 100/1, 1% | 0.28% | 200/1, 0.5% | 0.09% |
Chicago White Sox | 71.4 | 90.6 | 44.1% | 71.4 | 90.6 | 44.1% | 0.9% | 3.0% | 100/1, 1% | 0.12% | 200/1, 0.5% | 0.04% |
Kansas City Royals | 69.2 | 92.8 | 42.7% | 69.2 | 92.8 | 42.7% | 0.4% | 1.5% | 250/1, 0.4% | 0.06% | 500/1, 0.2% | 0.01% |
Detroit Tigers | 65.4 | 96.6 | 40.4% | 65.4 | 96.6 | 40.4% | 0.1% | 0.5% | 250/1, 0.4% | 0.03% | 500/1, 0.2% | 0.01% |
So here's the projected playoff matchups in the AL ...
- ALDS: Indians (AL Central champs) vs. AL wild-card winner
- ALDS: Astros (AL West champs) vs. Red Sox (AL East champs)
- AL Wild Card Game: Blue Jays at Yankees
SportsLine right now projects a fairly wild race in the AL East, but the Red Sox are expected to hold off the Yankees by a single game or so. The Indians, meantime, claim top seed in the AL for a second straight year. The second wild-card bid is also expected to give us some intrigue, as the Jays, Angels, Mariners, and Twins are all in the mix. On the other end of the continuum, the Tigers are forecast to claim the top overall draft pick in 2019. Congrats!
And now the National League ...
NATIONAL LEAGUE | SEASON FORECAST | REST OF SEASON | MAKE PLAYOFFS | POST-SEASON SUCCESS | ||||||||
WINS | LOSS | WIN% | WINS | LOSS | WIN% | WIN DIV | PLAYOFF | NLCS ODDS | LCS% | WS ODDS | WS% | |
Los Angeles Dodgers | 100.1 | 61.9 | 61.8% | 100.1 | 61.9 | 61.8% | 89.2% | 96.7% | 9/4, 30.8% | 35.33% | 5/1, 16.7% | 23.38% |
Washington Nationals | 98.2 | 63.8 | 60.6% | 98.2 | 63.8 | 60.6% | 93.5% | 96.3% | 7/2, 22.2% | 25.58% | 8/1, 11.1% | 15.35% |
Chicago Cubs | 95.7 | 66.3 | 59.1% | 95.7 | 66.3 | 59.1% | 69.2% | 90.2% | 3/1, 25% | 22.86% | 7/1, 12.5% | 13.77% |
St Louis Cardinals | 86.2 | 75.8 | 53.2% | 86.2 | 75.8 | 53.2% | 16.2% | 52.9% | 8/1, 11.1% | 6.39% | 18/1, 5.3% | 2.93% |
Milwaukee Brewers | 85.4 | 76.6 | 52.7% | 85.4 | 76.6 | 52.7% | 13.5% | 47.9% | 15/1, 6.2% | 3.82% | 30/1, 3.2% | 1.44% |
Arizona Diamondbacks | 83.1 | 78.9 | 51.3% | 83.1 | 78.9 | 51.3% | 6.1% | 37.1% | 15/1, 6.2% | 2.49% | 30/1, 3.2% | 0.91% |
Colorado Rockies | 79.4 | 82.6 | 49.0% | 79.4 | 82.6 | 49.0% | 2.5% | 20.5% | 25/1, 3.8% | 1.14% | 50/1, 2% | 0.41% |
San Francisco Giants (0-0) | 78.2 | 83.9 | 48.2% | 78.1 | 83.9 | 48.2% | 2.0% | 16.6% | 15/1, 6.2% | 0.73% | 30/1, 3.2% | 0.25% |
New York Mets | 77.0 | 85.0 | 47.5% | 77.0 | 85.0 | 47.5% | 2.7% | 13.0% | 12/1, 7.7% | 0.44% | 25/1, 3.8% | 0.16% |
Philadelphia Phillies | 74.8 | 87.2 | 46.2% | 74.8 | 87.2 | 46.2% | 1.6% | 8.2% | 50/1, 2% | 0.32% | 100/1, 1% | 0.08% |
Atlanta Braves | 74.5 | 87.5 | 46.0% | 74.5 | 87.5 | 46.0% | 1.5% | 7.5% | 100/1, 1% | 0.39% | 200/1, 0.5% | 0.08% |
Pittsburgh Pirates | 72.6 | 89.4 | 44.8% | 72.6 | 89.4 | 44.8% | 0.8% | 4.9% | 50/1, 2% | 0.16% | 100/1, 1% | 0.04% |
Miami Marlins | 71.7 | 90.3 | 44.3% | 71.7 | 90.3 | 44.3% | 0.7% | 3.8% | 250/1, 0.4% | 0.18% | 500/1, 0.2% | 0.05% |
Cincinnati Reds | 71.4 | 90.6 | 44.1% | 71.4 | 90.6 | 44.1% | 0.4% | 3.3% | 150/1, 0.7% | 0.13% | 300/1, 0.3% | 0.04% |
San Diego Padres | 67.0 | 95.1 | 41.3% | 67.0 | 95.0 | 41.3% | 0.1% | 1.0% | 100/1, 1% | 0.04% | 200/1, 0.5% | 0.00% |
So here's the projected playoff field in the senior circuit ...
- NLDS: Dodgers (NL West champs) vs. NL wild-card winner
- NLDS: Nationals (NL East champs) vs. Cubs (NL Central champs)
- NL Wild Card Game: Brewers at Cardinals
As you may have noticed, it says here we'll have the exact same division winners that we had in 2017. Three of the four wild-card sports, however, will see some turnover. In the NL, it's a good race for those wild-card berths, but in the end the NL Central winds up producing three playoff teams, as the NL West did last season. Unfortunately, no division race in the NL is expected to be close. Somewhat surprisingly, the Marlins aren't expected to be the NL's worst team. Instead, the Padres are forecast to put some heat on the Tigers for that top overall draft pick in 2019.
Beyond all that, SportsLine foresees a Dodgers win over the Indians in the 2018 World Series. Although, it takes the field over any one team to reach -- let alone win -- the World Series.
Forthcoming? Actual games!