As part of our 2015 season preview series, we here at Eye on Baseball will be picking and choosing some "likes" and "dislikes" for all 30 MLB teams. In this installment, we'll run down what we like and don't like about the Houston Astros, who went 70-92 and welcomed a new manager (A.J. Hinch) into the fold this offseason.
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LIKES
The Power: Chris Carter hit 37 home runs last year. George Springer went deep 20 times in only 78 games. Jon Singleton hit 27 homers in 149 games between Triple-A and MLB. New addition Evan Gattis has hit 43 homers in 213 career big league games. Colby Rasmus, despite all his flaws, has averaged 21 homers across the last three seasons. The Astros has some major power from both sides of the plate and their ballpark is a great place to hit. There's a lot of guys in this lineup who can put runs on the board with one swing if the pitcher makes a mistake.
Dallas Keuchel: The 27-year-old Keuchel, a former seventh round pick (2009), broke out last summer and pitched to a 2.93 ERA in exactly 200 innings. He did it with ground balls -- his 63.5 percent ground ball rate was the highest among qualified starters by a wide margin in 2014 (Tyson Ross was second at 57.0 percent) and the highest by a qualified starter since 2010 (Tim Hudson at 64.1 percent) -- and it's not just one pitch. Both Keuchel's sinker (77.1 percent) and changeup (62.7 percent) had individual ground ball rates well above the league average (49.5 percent and 47.8 percent, respectively), and his slider (45.1 percent) was a tick above average (43.9 percent) as well. He has three weapons to get ground balls. If Keuchel was a one trick pony, a guy with a great sinker and not much else, I'd be much more skeptical about his chances of repeating his 2014 success. But he has two elite ground ball pitches (sinker and changeup) and a third good one (slider). He's here to stay.
Two Top Five Draft Picks: Because they failed to sign first overall pick Brady Aiken last year, the Astros have the second overall pick in the 2015 draft as compensation. They also hold the fifth overall pick, which is their natural first rounder. Houston is the first team in history to have two of the top five picks in the amateur draft and that's a great way to add two young impact talents in a hurry. The upside to being bad is the high draft picks, I guess.
DISLIKES
The Strikeouts: Boy oh boy the Astros are going to strike out a lot this year. Among the 263 players to bat at least 300 times last year, the players with the highest (Singleton - 37.0 percent), seventh highest (Springer - 33.0 percent), eighth highest (Rasmus - 33.0 percent), 14th highest (Carter - 31.8 percent) and 19th highest (Jason Castro - 29.5 percent) strikeout rates are on Houston's roster. It's very hard to sustain a rally when you strike out that much as a team. The Astros set the MLB record with 1,535 strikeouts in 2013 and I have to think they'll challenge that record this year.
Middle Infield Defense: For all his awesomeness, Jose Altuve is not a particularly adept defender at second base. The various defensive stats have consistently rated him below average -- including substantially below average in 2012 and 2014 -- in his career, and we're talking about over 4,000 innings of work, so it's not a sample size issue. New shortstop Jed Lowrie has long been a below average defender at short, especially these last two years. Between Lowrie and Altuve, Houston's pitchers won't get much help on ground balls up the middle this year. So maybe I shouldn't be so bullish about Keuchel then?
Fan Interest: The Astros had the fourth worst record in baseball last season at 70-92 and that represented a 19-win improvement from 2013. I repeat: a 19-win improvement! They averaged 108 losses a year from 2011-13 and that brand of awful comes with a price. The team has registered a 0.0 Nielsen rating in the Houston area on multiple occasions in recent years, meaning television ratings are basically nil. The Astros have also ranked in the bottom four of league attendance in each of the last four years. Tanking for high picks and rebuilding from scratch -- which the Astros have absolutely done under GM Jeff Luhnow -- sounds great but it comes with real life consequences. The dismal television ratings and attendance figures are cold hard facts. Fans have lost interest and deserted the team. It's going to take a long time to rebuild that interest too. One good season won't cut it.
