After going 28-27 in the final two months last season -- good for a seven-win improvement at 73-89 overall -- the Cubs had a headline-grabbing offseason. They hired one of baseball's best managers in Joe Maddon. They signed Jon Lester and Jason Hammel to beef up the rotation. They traded for pitch-framer Miguel Montero and on-base machine Dexter Fowler. And they have an enviable stash of young power hitters. The Hype Train is chugging along at full steam. Should it be, though? Let's look.
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Probable lineup
1. Dexter Fowler, CF
2. Starlin Castro, SS
3. Anthony Rizzo, 1B
4. Jorge Soler, RF
5. Miguel Montero, C
6. Chris Coghlan, LF
7. Mike Olt, 3B
8. Arismendy Alcantara, 2B
Bench: C David Ross, C Welington Castillo, IF Tommy La Stella, OF Chris Denorfia, OF Ryan Sweeney
There's a lot to sort out here. First, we have to mention that super-heavyweight prospect Kris Bryant is going to be the everyday third baseman by the end of April, in all likelihood. He probably slots fifth to start and then cleanup eventually. Next, Javier Baez seemed lost at the plate down the stretch and hasn't been any better thus far in the spring, so I'm betting he starts in Triple-A, though it's still a possibility he's the everyday second baseman. Speaking of which, La Stella could start there or at third base and will do so often, at least early on. Alcantara is slated to be Maddon's new Ben Zobrist, capable of playing second, short, third or any outfield position. Denorfia and Coghlan will platoon in left to start the year, too. Ross will also be Lester's personal catcher.
So, yeah, lots of moving parts and fluidity there. It would be surprising to see a single lineup be repeated more than a handful of times this season, but expect the catcher and left fielder spots to end up in the seven and eight holes instead of five and six by the end of the season.
Probable rotation
1. LHP Jon Lester
2. RHP Jake Arrieta
3. RHP Jason Hammel
4. RHP Kyle Hendricks
5. LHP Travis Wood
Heading into camp, Wood was competing with the likes of Edwin Jackson, Jacob Turner, Felix Doubront, Tsuyoshi Wada, Dallas Beeler and Eric Jokisch for the fifth spot, but he seems to have nailed it down for the time being.
Probable bullpen
Closer: RHP Hector Rondon
Setup men: RHP Neil Ramirez, RHP Pedro Strop, RHP Jason Motte
Middle men: RHP Justin Grimm, LHP Phil Coke
Long man: RHP Edwin Jackson
If the Cubs can deal Jackson, they surely will. Any of the guys mentioned in the mix for the fifth starter would work as a long man here and there are also guys like Drake Britton, Brian Schlitter and Blake Parker in the mix.
Under-the-radar offseason transaction
To the layperson, going from Castillo to Montero/Ross behind the plate isn't a big deal. Castillo's probably the best hitter of the bunch -- though Montero's track record is far better -- but the pitch framing is where the Cubs have upgraded.
Via statcorner, Montero was the best framer in baseball last season, making 180 balls into strikes out of more than 9,500 pitches received. Ross only received 3,691 pitches, but made 79 balls into strikes, ranking 13th. All the way at the bottom, Castillo was tied for the worst in baseball with Jarrod Saltalamacchia at -183. That is, 183 times, pitchFX data showed he made a strike into a ball due to poor framing. If you don't think this makes a huge difference, ask a pitcher, like Daniel Hudson:
"Those Cubs pitchers are going to love [Montero] because they're going to get a lot of low strikes," Hudson told chicagotribune.com. Here's a look at what he means:
That's not a strike. But it is!
If the framing continues along this path, Cubs pitchers are going to look a lot better this year simply due to who is receiving their pitches.
Good thing the #RobotUmpires haven't arrived yet.
Fantasy bust: Starlin Castro, SS
From Al Melchior's Cubs fantasy preview:
Castro bounced back from an awful 2013 season to bat .292 with 14 home runs and 65 RBI last year. He'll be just 25 this season, so you can safely leave worries of decline behind, right? Not so fast there, Tex. It might appear Castro is back for good, since he hadn't hit lower than .283 in any of his first three seasons, but back then he was striking out less often. Castro didn't remedy that last year, and he also became an extreme pull hitter and notched infield hits at a lower rate. That doesn't bode well for a repeat of Castro's .273 batting average on grounders. He can't be counted on for steals anymore, so all he may provide is 10 to 15 home runs and a .270ish batting average with diminished run production. That's probably not enough to cut it as a top 12 shortstop, so he's not a safe pick in standard mixed leagues, unless you're targeting him for the MI slot in a Roto league.
Biggest strength
I love the power potential, the rotation will be good and the bullpen is loaded with power arms. Overall, though, I'm going with Joe Maddon and the roster flexibility. As noted in the lineup/bench section, there are tons of different options on a daily basis and few in baseball are better than Maddon at mixing and matching lineups. He'll find a way to get the most of his roster and he has a deep and talented one to boot.
Biggest weakness
Again, we're going broad here. It's the number of question marks. We don't know for sure about Bryant, Soler in a full season, Baez or Alcantara. Hendricks could be mentioned similarly. We can't 100 percent say the pitch framing is going to make the pitchers substantially better. The bullpen has power, but power bullpen arms -- outside the elite guys like Craig Kimbrel and Aroldis Chapman -- can be a fickle monster.
There's great upside, sure, but not every question will be answered in the positive. If several are answered in the negative, there's downside, too.
Outlook
The hype machine is in full force with this team and it makes sense. Everyone wants to be the one who "called" the Cubs World Series victory. I've already offered up my thoughts on how this year is more a step-forward year than a huge-leap year. There's just too much that has to happen to make this the truly special season in Wrigleyville. I'm saving my World Series prediction for 2016 or 2017, but it's honestly not that far off before we're talking about this team being a powerhouse in the crowded NL Central.
As for 2015, I do think the Cubs can land in the mid-80s in wins. From there they just need a little luck to get to a wild-card spot and then you never know. There's potential for a very well-rounded and good ballclub here.
Look at that, I'm dreaming already ...
Coming Sunday: Previewing the Cardinals
