Masters Countdown: Why Bubba Watson can win at Augusta in 2016
It's preposterous to me that Bubba Watson isn't the favorite at Augusta for the 2016 Masters. Here's why.
We are going to start looking at individual golfers and their chances of winning the 2016 Masters as April draws near. Adam Scott was up first. We also looked at Rory McIlroy. Next up is Bubba Watson.
Let's take a look at where Watson stands with Augusta just five weeks away.
World Rank -- No. 4: Watson has a real chance to get into the top three in the world if he wins between now and the beginning of April.
Odds of Winning -- 14-1: I don't understand this. Watson should be no worse than 10-1. You're telling me this thing is played 14 times and Watson only wins it once? No. There is so much value here. Watson has won two of the last three of these!
Why he can win: Watson knows this is probably the only major he can win. It is at the very least the one he has the best chance of winning every year. As a result, he's become incredibly efficient here. Watson is known as an all-or-nothing player, but he's one of only nine players to make five or more straight cuts here. Two of those equaled wins.
Both times he's won, Watson has owned the par 5s. He shot a combined 16 under on the par 5s at Augusta in 2012 and 2014 (his two green jacket-winning years). He, more than anyone in the field, can reduce those holes to par 4s. Plus he's left-handed which is one of the biggest advantages you can have at this tournament. His cuts (slices?) and shot-shaping are basically perfect for this event.
Why he can't win: The question with Bubba at Augusta is always whether he can mentally stay engaged. He got rolling a little bit in 2014 early in the week and it translated to a monstrous performance. But if it goes the other way, it can really go the other way (this is why his made cuts streak is so impressive to me).
Quotable: "So far I've scheduled to play at Bay Hill and I'm scheduled to play at the Match Play. So I'm not worried about Augusta. I'm not thinking about Augusta. I'm trying to figure out about how I'm going to not throw up on No. 1 tomorrow. Hopefully I'm teeing off No. 1." -- Bubba Watson at 2016 Cadillac Championship (Mar. 4, 2016)
Stat to know -- 8: That's how many golfers have won three or more times at Augusta. Only Tiger Woods and Phil Mickelson have done it since Nick Faldo completed the task in 1996. This would be rare air for Watson.
Recent Augusta Performances
2011: T38
2012: Win
2013: T50
2014: Win
2015: T38
Recently on PGA Tour: Watson won the Northern Trust Open which should have made him the favorite. Instead, he still has a handful of players ahead of him at the books. Preposterous. I should note here that last time Watson won Riviera was 2014. He also finished 15 under that year (just like this year) and went on to beat Jordan Spieth at the Masters.
Outlook: Watson is probably going to end up being my pick if only because of his absurd 14-1 number. I'll know early in the week if that's going to be a faulty choice, but it's easier for him to win this tournament than it is anyone else. That is, he can play the least good of all the potential winners and still take home the jacket.
