In Part 1 of these 10 questions, I looked at Justin Thomas' encore, Rory McIlroy's greatness, Bubba Watson's bounce back-ability and whether Rickie Fowler will win his first major championship. This second part will focus less on individuals and more on bigger trends within the game going forward.
Of course, we also have to tackle the Tiger Woods question, and the player who might be the best-positioned to take his throne in the hierarchy of golf history. In fact, let's start there with three-time major championship winner Jordan Spieth.
6. What exactly is Spieth's career trajectory? Spieth continues to win tournaments and major championships at an astonishing clip. He has 11 PGA Tour wins in his first 119 events as a pro and three majors in his first 19 tries as a pro. Those are numbers that we have rarely seen in golf history, but how do they compare to a pair of all-time greats from recent years.
I plugged the data in for Spieth, Rory McIlroy and Tiger Woods through their first 119 PGA Tour events overall and first 19 majors as professionals. What we see is that Spieth overall is winning on about the same pace as McIlroy and has pulled slightly ahead of him when it comes to major championships. McIlroy won two of his first 19 (but four of his first 24). Spieth has to win one of the next five to match McIlroy's first two dozen major number.
Still, it feels like there is something untapped with Spieth. Would anyone be surprised if, say, he won two of the next majors to get to five before turning 26? He's never going to catch Woods' pace (nobody is), but I think he has a chance to settle somewhere between McIlroy and Woods, which in and of itself would put him on pace to be one of the 10-12 greatest golfers of all time.
7. Will any of the three career slams hit? Only the Open Championship will be bereft of a career grand slam bid in 2018. The Masters will feature Rory McIlroy vying for all four. The U.S. Open will see Phil Mickelson do it. And the PGA Championship will be Spieth's second swing at all four. This only adds to the built-in drama these four events bring to the table on an annual basis. And can you imagine if we see all three hit in the same year?
8. Which relatively unknown player emerges? Like Jon Rahm and Xander Schauffele in 2017 and Thomas Pieters to a lesser degree the fall before that, there will undoubtedly be a relatively unknown name that emerges as a legitimate threat to the Official World Golf Rankings top 10. Patrick Cantlay, Peter Uihlein, Tyrrell Hatton, Dylan Frittelli, Paul Dunne and Ollie Schniederjans are all candidates.
Who knows whether one of them gets the right breaks at the proper times and takes advantage, but for my money, Cantlay is the chosen one out of this group. We've officially entered a scenario in which casual golf fans could be scrolling through Ryder Cup matchups next October thinking, "Who the hell is Patrick Cantlay?"
The answer: Owner of one of the great young swings in the game and keeper of five top 10s and a win in his last 15 events.
9. Will anything actually be done to roll the ball back? There is as much talk right now regarding reduction of golf ball distance as I can remember in recent years. Tiger Woods and Jack Nicklaus have come out not only in favor of golf ball distance reduction, but implying possible solutions. The problem here is that it's going to take more than the feelings of the two best players to ever tee it up. We turn to, who else, John Daly for the real issue.
.@JohnDalyUSA raises the multi-million dollar question on ball tech at #DRIGolf media day. "How many lawsuits is golf willing to sacrifice to bring the golf ball back?" pic.twitter.com/kPRbNIHD1i
— Will Gray (@WillGrayGC) December 12, 2017
Golf's governing bodies are going to get sued by golf ball companies if they introduce any form of a reduced-flight ball. I don't really know what the solution to this problem is because it seems like a lot of players and thinkers within the game are pretty straightforward in their attitude toward a shorter ball. Getting from point A to point B is going to be one of the bumpier rides in golf equipment history, though, and I'm not sure the USGA, PGA Tour and other organizations are going to go the distance.
10. Exactly how much will we see Tiger Woods? I saved the best (or most intriguing?) for last. After Woods' performance at the Hero World Challenge at the beginning of December, I think we're all pretty stoked to see what could unfold in 2018. He doesn't need to win. He doesn't even need to contend. He just needs to play. If the over/under for Woods events in 2018 is 9.5, I think I'm taking the over.
You could tell in the Bahamas that he was champing at the bit to get back on the PGA Tour, and if his back holds like he thinks it will, then that's exactly what he's going to do. It's not hard to see him play all four majors plus the Genesis Open, Farmers Insurance Open, Honda Classic, The National and the Memorial. That's 10 right there. I suspect we see him 12-14 times worldwide in 2018, which will be a welcome sight for the sport, its stakeholders and all of us who get to cover it on a daily basis for a living.
