The argument has been made that the three best players in the world have won the first three major championships of 2024. Trends pointed to Scottie Scheffler's Masters victory and Xander Schauffele's breakthrough win at the PGA Championship. They narrowly eliminated Bryson DeChambeau at the U.S. Open, but that is not to say numbers have struggled to identify major contenders so far this season.
Of the final five at the U.S. Open, four finished inside the top 15 with the lone outlier being the world No. 1. Scheffler is sure to factor in some manner at the 2024 Open as he seeks to join players like Arnold Palmer, Jack Nicklaus and Tiger Woods in winning the Masters and The Open in the same season.
Statistically, he is as sound a player one can find in the world of golf, but there is more to winning this tournament. Links-golf pedigree, major championship chops, recent form -- all these factors intertwined with a couple other statistics can help identify the man most likely to raise the Claret Jug come Sunday afternoon at Royal Troon.
With all that in mind, let's take a look back at the 10 most recent winners of The Open and identify what trends exist as we attempt to narrow down the field of 158 players to pinpoint this year's champion. You can also take a gander at a full slate of 2024 Open Championship picks and predictions from our CBS Sports experts.
1. Official World Golf Rankings
The rankings have lost some accuracy and completeness amid the LIV Golf drama, but they are still sound for tours that receive points. Each of the last 10 winners have been inside the top 30 of the OWGR with the likes of Zach Johnson (No. 25), Brian Harman (No. 26) and Shane Lowry (No. 33) bringing up the rear. The other seven champions entered the week inside the top 15, so similar to the first three majors, the top-50 cutoff for those players on circuits that do accumulate OWGR seems like a good starting point.
Eliminated: Non-LIV Golf players outside the top 50 of the OWGR, notably Tiger Woods, Will Zalatoris, Rickie Fowler, Alex Noren, Justin Rose, Thomas Detry, Tom Hoge, Austin Eckroat
2. Courses change, stakes do not
The Open visits Royal Troon for the 10th time in the championship's history. It has crowned winners like Henrik Stenson and Justin Leonard with players such as Phil Mickelson, Greg Norman and Ernie Els all coming close. With links golf presenting such a different challenge compared to golf in the United States, quality has proven to be an important barometer at this championship in particular. Nine of the last 10 champions had a top-20 finish to their name with Collin Morikawa winning in his championship debut.
Eliminated: Ludvig Åberg, Wyndham Clark, Sahith Theegala, Matthieu Pavon, Akshay Bhatia, Sam Burns, Min Woo Lee, Byeong Hun An, Denny McCarthy, Nick Taylor, Davis Thompson, Cameron Davis, Adam Hadwin, Christiaan Bezuidenhout, Stephan Jaeger, Nicolai Hojgaard, Eric Cole, J.T. Poston, Sam Horsfield, Adrian Meronk, Joaquin Niemann, Andy Ogletree
3. What have you done for me lately?
Major champions rarely pop up unannounced. Mickelson (2013), Jordan Spieth (2017) and Francesco Molinari (2018) all had multiple victories before claiming their Claret Jugs. In fact, eight of the last 10 Open winners already had a win on the season with all 10 having at least one podium finish under their belts during the calendar year.
Eliminated: Russell Henley, Matt Fitzpatrick, Sepp Straka, Jason Day, Corey Conners, Lucas Glover, Si Woo Kim, Phil Mickelson, Henrik Stenson
4. Major-championship pedigree
Harman may not have been known as a big-game hunter on the golf course, but he had factored in previous major championships before his win at Hoylake. A runner-up finisher to Brooks Koepka at the 2017 U.S. Open, the left-hander continued a trend of Open winners having had prior experience in major contention. Five of the last 10 winners were already major champions, while all 10 had at least one runner-up finish in a major championship.
Eliminated: Patrick Cantlay, Max Homa, Robert MacIntyre, Tony Finau, Tyrrell Hatton, Chris Kirk, Aaron Rai, Abraham Ancer, Dean Burmester
5. Let's get technical
We're down to just 24 players without touching a statistic, but that won't be the case much longer. The last 10 champions all averaged at least +1.16 strokes gained per round in the three months leading up to their victories. Mickelson tops this list with +2.40 in 2013 as McIlroy, Molinari, Lowry and Morikawa all checked in north of +2.00 strokes gained per round. All together, the last 10 winners averaged +1.90 strokes gained per round -- the figure we will be using as our benchmark, much to the dismay of many recent major champions and many potential contenders.
Eliminated: Brooks Koepka, Jon Rahm, Cameron Smith, Louis Oosthuizen, Dustin Johnson, Viktor Hovland, Tommy Fleetwood, Brian Harman, Hideki Matsuyama, Tom Kim, Keegan Bradley, Sungjae Im, Cameron Young, Justin Thomas, Shane Lowry, Adam Scott, Jordan Spieth
That leaves us with ... five golfers
Scottie Scheffler, Xander Schauffele, Collin Morikawa, Rory McIlroy, Bryson DeChambeau
This is basically an identical list as was spit out ahead of the last two major championships, so no real surprises here. Scheffler has been the guy in 2024 with six wins and remains the player to beat, but the nuances and variances of links golf could cause him some issues like they did at Pinehurst No. 2.
Schauffele has been scratchy (but still solid) since his win at the PGA Championship, and he came close at Carnoustie in 2018. The biggest question among this group: how will DeChambeau attack Royal Troon? He figured out the puzzle at Augusta National, beat Valhalla into submission and had everything going at Pinehurst, but this is inherently a different test.
Then we arrive at two players who are perhaps the most due, albeit in different fashions. McIlroy comes into another major championship amid fantastic form seeking to end his decade-long drought on this stage. Meanwhile, Morikawa has been the best player not to win this season with five top-five finishes in his last 10 tournaments.
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