Major season wraps up this week in Scotland as the 2024 Open Championship commences at Royal Troon. With everyone convening in the United Kingdom for the second week in a row, the key question everyone's asking is the same across the golf world: Who are you picking to win this 152nd playing of the oldest golf tournament in the world
With an exceptional field featuring the best professionals in the world, the final major championship of 2024 should be an epic ride from Thursday's first round through the awarding of the Claret Jug on Sunday. Scottie Scheffler enters as the clear favorite atop the oddsboard, but Rory McIlroy -- still looking for his first major victory in a decade -- is not far behind. There is no question that Scheffler is on an all-time run with six wins and a record $28 million already in his pockets this season, but he has a chance to move into rarified air if he can pick up a Claret Jug to sit alongside his green jacket.
Joining that duo as among the favorites at The Open are PGA Championship winner Xander Schauffele, U.S. Open champion Bryson DeChambeau, Ludvig Åberg, Jon Rahm, Collin Morikawa and Brooks Koepka. While Schauffele and DeChambeau already have trophies on their mantle from this season, Morikawa happens to be in the midst of a career year (statistically), while Åberg is putting on a memorable rookie run despite not yet claiming a victory.
There are plenty of golfers behind them who will surely be in contention with enough game to put pressure on the favorites. It is the nature of The Open for there to be some surprises near the top of the leaderboard along the way, too. Plus, all eyes are always on Tiger Woods, who has not made the cut at an Open since 2018 when he finished T6. In fact, he has only teed off at this tournament three times over its last seven playings since 2016.
So, what is going to happen at Royal Troon this week? Let's take a look at a full set of predictions and picks from our CBS Sports experts as we attempt to project who will win -- and what will happen -- at the year's final major championship. You can also take a deeper dive with Kyle Porter's ranking of The Open field from 1-24 and flip through the Open Championship tee times and pairings so you can watch your favorites throughout Round 1.
As for how to watch all 72 holes this week, for that you will need our Open Championship TV schedule and coverage guide, which will lead your viewing habits fro Thursday through Sunday.
2024 Open Championship picks, expert predictions
Kyle Porter, senior golf writer
Winner -- Ludvig Åberg (14-1): The young Swede is playing such tremendous golf right now. Starting back at The Players in March, Åberg has finished in the top 15 across seven of nine events, including twice at major championships. I'm not concerned about the weekend struggles, especially after hearing him talk about how he wants the ball in his pre-Open press conference on Monday. The talent is outrageous, and the disposition is great for an Open Championship. As long as he gets the right side of the draw, he should be there on Sunday.
Sleeper -- Tony Finau (50-1): I'm not sure what I'm missing here. Finau has finished in the top 20 in each of his last five tournaments (including a T3 at the U.S. Open and T18 at the PGA Championship). He has also low-key been an awesome Open player. He missed the cut last year at Royal Liverpool, but before that, it was six consecutive top 30s to begin his Open Championship career. In the last 10 years, among golfers who have played at least 15 rounds, Finau ranks behind only McIlroy, Jordan Spieth and Henrik Stenson in strokes gained at this event.
Top 10 lock -- Xander Schauffele: he has never missed a cut at this event, and four of his six Open finishes have been inside the top 20. Throw in the fact that he's having the best season of his career and has finished in the top 15 across six consecutive events, and Schauffele is an easy choice here. His numbers this year -- in terms of strokes gained and all those top 10s -- are similar to McIlroy, but the difference in their price to finish in the top 10 (-105 and +130, respectively) is different enough to warrant going with Schauffele.
Star who definitely won't win -- Scottie Scheffler: Not feeling Scheffler this week; this despite him being someone I have picked for nearly every event he's played over the last several months. I didn't love how he handled some of the randomness off the tee at Pinehurst. I don't love his (limited) history at Opens. I don't love how short his odds are this week. I don't love that Opens produce such a wide variety of winners. This is the most open major of the year, and it does not scream that Scheffler will win. He will surely contend because he should putt better than he did at Pinehurst, but the 9/2 number is way too short here at a place where some of his skillset -- making good choices about where to miss -- might not be as effective as usual.
Tiger Woods will finish ... the tournament: Woods has played 13 majors since winning the 2019 Masters, though he's only finished those tournaments five times -- and only two of those have happened since the November 2020 Masters (none outside the gates of Augusta National). He's still a genius, and his body looks better than it has at a lot of the other majors he's played. Look for him to sneak inside the cut and get 72 holes out of his bag at Royal Troon.
Surprise prediction -- An older player contends: Maybe it's Phil Mickelson. Perhaps it's Henrik Stenson ... or Darren Clark or Padraig Harrington. But somebody age 45 or older will be legitimately competitive to win this golf tournament on the weekend.
Lowest round: 64 (-7)
Winning score: 272 (-12)
Winner's Sunday score: 68 (-3)
Patrick McDonald, golf writer
Winner -- Tony Finau (50-1): There is a lot to like about Finau's game and how it relates to Royal Troon. He's plenty long off the tee and one of the best iron players in this field, plus his short game has turned a corner over the last couple months. He arrives at The Open off back-to-back top fives in the U.S. Open and Travelers Championship, and Finau has a sneaky-good Open track record. Before missing the cut at Royal Liverpool, Finau had made all six of his Open cuts with a podium finish in 2019 at a wet and windy Royal Portrush.
Sleeper -- Louis Oosthuizen (110-1): This number is woefully off. Oosthuizen hasn't lost strokes to the field in a tournament since February and arrives having just finished inside the top five at LIV Golf Andalucia. His major championship record is well-known (especially those runner-up finishes) with The Open being the lone trophy on his mantle. Since that win at St. Andrews in 2010, the South African has a couple of podium results in this championship with the latest coming at Royal St. George's in 2021.
Top 10 lock -- Rory McIlroy: He's going to get right back on the horse this week and give himself a chance to break his decade-long major drought. McIlroy had the ideal prep at the Scottish Open leading the field in strokes gained tee to green only to be undone by speed control on the greens. Since 2014, McIlroy has a win, two podium finishes and three other top-six finishes in The Open.
Star who definitely won't win -- Viktor Hovland: I want to be all-in with Hovland, but it just seems like he's battling the big number right now. Hovland ranks last on the PGA Tour in strokes gained around the green, which will be more than relevant this week given the tricky run-off areas around these smaller greens. He's connected on three straight top-15 finishes to start his Open career, but I reckon that run comes to an end at Royal Troon.
Tiger Woods will finish ... his tournament on Friday: Not only has Tiger not played a ton of golf, but he has not played a ton of links golf. His only weekend appearance in The Open since 2015 came in 2018 when Woods nearly won at Carnoustie. He finished last among those who made the cut at the Masters and was a weekend omission at both the PGA Championship and U.S. Open. If rain rolls into the area like forecasted, that's only going to hurt his chances.
Surprise prediction -- Brooks Koepka's name is on the first page of the leaderboard late Sunday: Every major this year has produced a "surprise" star reappearing. At the Masters, it was Collin Morikawa. At the PGA Championship, it was Hovland. At the U.S. Open, it was Patrick Cantlay. Koepka is going to pull that role at The Open. It has been a decidedly down year for the five-time major champion -- having not produced a top-25 finish in the majors -- but his Open record speaks for itself. He's playing better than the results indicate.
Lowest round: 65 (-6)
Winning score: 272 (-12)
Winner's Sunday score: 68 (-3)
Who will win The Open Championship, and which longshots will stun the golfing world? Visit SportsLine now to see the projected leaderboard and best bets, all from the model that's nailed 13 golf majors and is up over $9,000 since June 2020.
Adam Silverstein, director of editorial
Winner -- Rory McIlroy (17/2): The game is apparent. McIlroy is one of the three best golfers in the world right now; he has been for the last two years, in fact, and he's won plenty of tournaments in that span. Yet the decade-long major drought persists. While not as heartbreaking as being unable to come home at St. Andrews a couple years ago, Rory's loss at the U.S. Open last month was excruciating. He claims he just needed time to get over it, but as Kyle pointed out this week, McIlroy's emotions are not only the intriguing part of his game these days, they are what appear to hold him back from winning another "big one." That ends this week at Royal Troon. Failure is often the best motivator in sports. Do you remember what happened after Rory fell short in St. Andrews? He rebounded to win the Tour Championship despite starting the FedEx Cup Playoffs in sixth place. The drought ends Sunday.
Sleeper -- Tony Finau (50-1): An absolute no-brainer at these odds. Finau has been playing great golf of late, and he's likely being digned for missing the cut the last time The Open was played at Royal Troon back in 2016. Since then, he's posted 10 major finishes in the top 10, including a T3 last month at the U.S. Open. Whether Tone is going to ultimately take the Claret Jug is obviously tough to predict, but at these odds, he's the best value on the board in this spot.
Top 10 lock -- Bryson DeChambeau: This was a tough call between Bryson and Collin Morikawa, but the former Big Golfer has been on a heater with top-10 finishes in all three majors thus far, including his win last month at the U.S. Open. DeChambeau took some time off ... to post an intricate YouTube video, of course ... but he's clearly as confident as ever in his game. The Open has not been his best major, but with Morikawa struggling at Opens since his victory a few years ago and Scottie Scheffler not playing as well as he did to start the year, Bryson should be able to backdoor his way into the top 10 at worst.
Star who definitely won't win -- Jon Rahm: Is this cheating? Given he's finished T2 and T3 at The Open over two of the last three years, this is actually a more significant prediction than simply going with Scheffler. Rahm's game is lost right now. He finished T45 at the Masters, got cut at the PGA Championship and missed the U.S. Open with a toe injury. He hasn't even won on LIV Golf this year, yet his odds are 22-1 at The Open? No thanks.
Tiger Woods will finish ... below the cutline: I've been bullish on Tiger all season, and while he hasn't finished better than 60th at a major championship, my predictions on him have been correct at each tournament. Ahead of the Masters, Woods told us gathered media that flat terrain (check) and warm weather (X) are what will be required for him to legitimately compete at tournaments. Beyond that, he has not played 72 holes of links golf -- professionally -- in six years. As Woods' health continues to improve -- and he learns how to manage his variety of ailments -- I do expect him to begin competing (not contending, competing) again at majors. Just not this one, not this year.
Surprise prediction -- Americans round out the top five: The Open begins with just 72 holes left for golfers from the United States to sweep all four majors in a calendar year for the first time since 1982, according to Justin Ray. Given my prediction for McIlroy, I do not have the U.S. achieving that feat -- but it's going to come excruciatingly close. Some combination of DeChambeau, Morikawa, Xander Schauffele, Patrick Cantlay and Finau (among others) could all be gunning for Rory down the stretch only for the Northern Irishman to prevail.
Lowest round: 66 (-5)
Winning score: 274 (-10)
Winner's Sunday score: 67 (-4)
