Jon Rahm has had an up-and-down PGA Tour season that was highlighted by his first major championship, but also included several missed opportunities due to forced COVID-19 withdrawals. But the World No. 1 can cement his status as the tour's top player by winning the FedEx Cup with a victory at the 2021 Tour Championship. Play tees off Thursday from East Lake Golf Club in Atlanta and Rahm will start four strokes back of leader Patrick Cantlay in the modified scoring system that is based off the FedEx Cup standings. The first tee times are set for 11:40 a.m. ET.
Both Rahm (4-1) and Cantlay (4-1) are tied atop the 2021 Tour Championship odds, courtesy of Caesars Sportsbook. Bryson DeChambeau will start three strokes back of Cantlay and has 5-1 odds to claim his first FedEx Cup championship. Others in contention for the $15 million winner's share include Justin Thomas (16-1), Dustin Johnson (25-1) and Jordan Spieth (25-1). Before finalizing your 2021 Tour Championship picks, be sure to see the latest golf predictions and projected leaderboard from the proven computer model at SportsLine.
SportsLine's proprietary model, built by DFS pro Mike McClure, has been red-hot since the PGA Tour resumed last June. In fact, it's up almost $10,000 on its best bets since the restart, nailing tournament after tournament.
At the 2021 Open Championship, McClure's best bets included Collin Morikawa winning outright even though he was listed as a massive 40-1 long shot. He was also all over Daniel Berger (+220) and Emiliano Grillo (+700) finishing inside the top-20. McClure's best bets netted over $2,200 at the 2021 Open Championship.
In addition, McClure's model was all over Jon Rahm's (10-1) first career major championship victory at the 2021 U.S. Open. Rahm was two strokes off the lead heading into the weekend, but the model still projected him as the winner. And at the 2021 Masters, McClure nailed Rahm's (+250) top-five finish in his best bets, as well as Corey Conners' (+550) top-10 showing.
This same model has also nailed a whopping seven majors entering the weekend. Anyone who has followed it has seen massive returns.
Now that the 2021 Tour Championship field is locked, SportsLine simulated the event 10,000 times, and the results were surprising. Head to SportsLine now to see the projected 2021 Tour Championship leaderboard.
The model's top 2021 Tour Championship predictions
One major surprise the model is calling for at the Tour Championship 2021: DeChambeau, an eight-time PGA Tour champion and one of the top favorites, barely cracks the top five. DeChambeau's coming off a disappointing playoff defeat to Cantlay at the BMW Championship.
The 27-year-old continues to crush the ball off the tee, averaging 323 yards per drive this season, which ranks first on tour. DeChambeau's length off the tee also has him ranked in the top five in birdie average (4.49), scoring average (69.730) and strokes gained: tee-to-green (1.422).
However, DeChambeau is hitting just 54.21 percent of fairways off the tee this season, which ranks 182nd on tour. His inability to find the fairway off the tee has resulted in DeChambeau finishing T-31 or worse in three of his last five starts. He's not a strong pick to win it all and there are far better values in the Tour Championship 2021 field.
Another surprise: Collin Morikawa, an enormous 35-1 long shot, makes a strong run at the title. Morikawa is one of just six golfers with multiple wins this tour season, one of which was the Open Championship. He will start seven strokes back, but has the type of game that can overcome virtually any type of deficit.
The two-time major winner is the only player on tour who ranks among the top 10 in both greens in regulation percentage (71.25, fourth) and driving accuracy percentage (69.79, 10th). That precision has enabled Morikawa to lead the tour in strokes gained: approaching-the-green (1.259) while ranking second in strokes gained: tee-to-green (1.679). Then once he gets on the green he avoids mistakes like no other as his current streak of 178 holes without a three-putt is the longest on tour.
Add all of that up and you have a golfer who can defy his long odds and make a serious run. Morikawa is a steal at his current odds and should bring great value to your 2021 Tour Championship bets.
How to make 2021 Tour Championship picks
The model is targeting four other golfers with 2021 Tour Championship odds of 25-1 or higher to make a strong run at the title. Anyone who backs these underdogs could hit it big. You can only see them here.
So who will win the Tour Championship 2021? And which long shots stun the golfing world? Check out the odds below and then visit SportsLine to see the projected 2021 Tour Championship leaderboard, all from the model that's nailed seven golf majors and is up almost $10,000 since the restart.
2021 Tour Championship odds
Patrick Cantlay 4-1
Jon Rahm 4-1
Bryson DeChambeau 5-1
Tony Finau 15-2
Justin Thomas 16-1
Dustin Johnson 25-1
Cameron Smith 25-1
Jordan Spieth 25-1
Rory McIlroy 25-1
Abraham Ancer 28-1
Xander Schauffele 28-1
Harris English 33-1
Sam Burns 33-1
Collin Morikawa 35-1
Louis Oosthuizen 40-1
Sungjae Im 40-1
Viktor Hovland 40-1
Brooks Koepka 50-1
Scottie Scheffler 80-1
Jason Kokrak 80-1
Hideki Matsuyama 100-1
Kevin Na 125-1
Corey Conners 125-1
Daniel Berger 125-1
Patrick Reed 150-1
Sergio Garcia 150-1
Joaquin Niemann 150-1
Erik Van Rooyen 175-1
Billy Horschel 250-1
Stewart Cink 250-1
