2020 Arnold Palmer Invitational leaderboard: Rory McIlroy in contention after Round 3 from Bay Hill

McIlroy will have to chase down Tyrrell Hatton on Sunday if he hopes to win in Orlando

Three rounds of the 2020 Arnold Palmer Invitational are officially in the books, and we have some tremendous storylines heading into Sunday's final round. The No. 1 player in the world is one back, but he's facing a titan of a golf course right now. One he's slayed before, but if Rory McIlroy wins this year it won't be with a 64 in the final round like it was in 2018. Let's jump into a wild third round before we look ahead to Sunday.

Leader: Tyrrell Hatton (-6) -- If you haven't noticed, Hatton has been playing great golf for nearly a year, and even a wrist injury in the fall didn't break his roll. He finished in the top 10 at the WGC-Mexico Championship a few weeks ago and is contending for his first PGA Tour victory here. It didn't come easy in Round 3. The Englishman, who started the day at 7 under, labored to a 1-over 73 (which was actually better than the field average). Several players flirted with the lead for the last two hours of play, but a birdie on the par-5 16th and a birdie at the horror show that was the 18th hole from Hatton, who was playing in the final pairing, was enough to grab it for good. He leads by two.

Contenders: Rory McIlroy (-4), Marc Leishman (-4), Sungjae Im (-3) -- It has the feel of a tournament that either Hatton or McIlroy is going to win. McIlroy was terrific for most of the day on Saturday, just parring the course to death to get to 5 under before he made bogey at the last. His bogey and Hatton's birdie there represent the two-shot swing that separates them going into the final day. McIlroy is first in the field from tee to green thus far and 40th in putting, which is frightening if I'm Hatton. It was intriguing to watch him grind because that's not normally how he wins tournaments. It might be how he wins this one though.

Nasty track: Bay Hill was insane on Saturday. A U.S. Open leading into the Players Championship next week. The final tally on the course average was 75.9, which means that if you shot 75 (!) you were gaining strokes on the field. The final hole on the course, which is a par-4 was playing to a stroke average of 4.7. There was just one round under par on the entire day, and that was Max Homa who went from T61 to T16 after a 2-under 70. There were no round in the 60s. 

And you know what? All of it was amazing because it meant you had to strike the hell out of your golf ball, through the wind and the chill throughout Round 3. I hope we get the exact same conditions on Sunday.

The carnage: More numbers. Brooks Koepka shot 81. So did Matthew Wolff. Hideki Matsuyama shot 80. So did Patrick Reed. Rickie Fowler made a 9 on a hole. Sung Kang, who was in the final pairing, made two triples on the back nine and shot 78. It was both wonderful and horrifying.

The favorite: McIlroy is the +175 favorite, according to William Hill Sportsbook with Hatton, the leader, checking in at +275. This makes sense. According to the oddsmakers, the event will come down to those two and Leishman.

The lurker(s): Both McIlroy and Hatton are in the top 10 in this field in strokes gained from tee to green. Two other guys who fit that statistical profile are Im (-3) and Scottie Scheffler (E). Scheffler is probably too far back, but Im closed with a 56-foot birdie putt on No. 18 on Saturday and could absolutely win for the second straight week. It will be interesting to see what he does in what I believe will be the third-to-last pairing.

Prediction: Rory is too much. Listen, Hatton is playing great golf and Leishman has a win here, but McIlroy's class is a cut above those two (and the rest of the field) right now. It'll come down to a putt here or there for the top three or four guys, but I'm not betting against him after the grit he showed on Saturday. That's always the final piece of the puzzle for McIlroy, and he's got it right now. 

[Mar 7, 2020 at 5:36 pm ET · Kyle Porter]

Rory hits it in the penalty area on No. 18, but he gets to drop on the green because of where it landed. Big break for him as he tries to clean up a bogey and get in the house at -4.

[Mar 7, 2020 at 5:18 pm ET · Kyle Porter]

Rory takes the co-lead at -5 after making birdie on No. 16. He's hung in all day, made just one birdie but should go into Sunday within one or two of the lead (at worst) or in it alone (at best).

[Mar 7, 2020 at 4:53 pm ET · Kyle Porter]

Tyrrell Hatton makes a birdie to get to -6 and takes the solo lead. His putt honestly may have run all the way into the water if it hadn't caught the side of the cup. Amazing. He's up one on Danny Lee and Sung Kang.

[Mar 7, 2020 at 4:28 pm ET · Kyle Porter]

Sung Kang just made a triple, and all of a sudden Marc Leishman and Tyrrell Hatton lead at -5 with Rory McIlroy one back. Things are happening. And there's still a ton of golf left.

[Mar 7, 2020 at 4:04 pm ET · Kyle Porter]

Here's a look at the leaderboard. It's great. I'm loving this event and especially today.

[Mar 7, 2020 at 3:59 pm ET · Kyle Porter]

All of a sudden, Rory is one back. It's a bloodbath out there. If you shoot even par or even 1 over, you're going to be in the mix at the end of the day, provided you started the day on the leaderboard -- 74 might even be a good score today. Sung Kang is 7 under, nobody else is better than 5 under. Rory is 4 under.