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Utah at No. 17 Colorado college football: Game preview, picks and best bets
Coach Prime’s squad is on the verge of something special
| Who | Utah Utes at No. 17 Colorado Buffaloes |
| When | Saturday at noon ET |
| Where | Folsom Field | Boulder, Colo. |
| How to watch | FOX |
Love him or hate him, you’ve watched him, and now you have to recognize what he’s done. After a resounding comeback win over Texas Tech, coach Deion (Primetime) Sanders has his Colorado Buffaloes at 7-2 (5-1 in Big 12 play) and in control of their own College Football Playoff destiny.
Colorado sits alone in second in the conference, just one game behind undefeated BYU (9-0, 6-0). This means that the Buffaloes will reach the Big 12 Championship Game if they win out, and if they win that game they’ll make the College Football Playoff.
This week, Sanders’ team will be facing the team that many expected to tear through the Big 12 and earn a playoff berth, the Utah Utes. But yet another season-ending injury to veteran quarterback Cameron Rising has derailed Utah’s season. And Isaac Wilson (brother of NFL quarterback Zach Wilson) has failed to produce during a five-game losing streak after a 4-0 start to the season.
One thing that hasn’t changed for the Utes is that they have the tough, fundamentally sound defense characteristic of so many Kyle Whittingham-coached squads. While Colorado has impressed on the offensive side of the ball, it hasn’t faced many defensive units like this one, and the best defense the Buffaloes have seen so far (Nebraska) limited Colorado to 10 points in an ugly loss.
However, the Buffaloes may not need to fully display their usual offensive fireworks to win this one, given the play of Utah’s offense of late and the drastic improvement of the Colorado defense compared to a year ago.
Most of the major sportsbooks, like FanDuel and Caesars are finally beginning to believe in the Buffaloes, but there is still value to be found.
| Market | FanDuel | Caesars | BetMGM |
|---|---|---|---|
| Utah spread | +9.5 (+100) | +10 (-110) | +10 (-110) |
| Colorado spread | -9.5 (-122) | -10 (-110) | -10 (-110) |
| Utah money line | +290 | +300 | +290 |
| Colorado money line | -375 | -385 | -375 |
| Over | Over 47.5 (-110) | Over 47.5 (-110) | Over 47.5 (-110) |
| Under | Under 47.5 (-110) | Under 47.5 (-110) | Under 47.5 (-110) |
Why Utah can cover
The Utes aren’t going to win a shootout, so their path to pulling off the big road upset will be to limit the Colorado offense, especially through the air. The Buffaloes don’t run the ball very well, but they hardly try. They are more than comfortable throwing on first down or facing third-and-long, so beating them really does mean slowing down quarterback Shedeur Sanders and Co.
The good news for Utah is that it has the ability to do exactly that. The Utes’ pass defense ranks sixth in the country by success rate and 14th by EPA per play. Van Fillinger has led a defensive front with six sacks and a pass rush win rate of more than 20%, while seven different defenders have recorded interceptions for the Utes. If Utah’s pass defense holds steady, this game could be a close.
Why the Buffaloes can cover
Between Sanders’ top-10 passing production and Heisman Trophy candidate Travis Hunter’s remarkable receiving numbers while moonlighting as a star cornerback, the offensive side of the ball doesn’t need much of an introduction. The improved offensive line and the presence of LaJohntay Wester as a key second wideout after transferring in from Florida Atlantic have been transformative as well.
However, against Utah’s quality pass defense, Colorado might need to lead with its own defensive unit. Contrary to a year ago, however, that’s not such a bad thing,. The defense ranks 20th in EPA per play and 31st in success rate, with a specialty of stopping the pass. Thanks in part to the cornerback half of Hunter’s contributions, the defense owns the 32nd best defensive success rate and 20th best EPA in the country.
The rushing defense is nowhere near as strong for the Buffaloes, but Utah’s ground game is 102nd in the country by EPA per play and 89th by success rate. Lead running back Micah Bernard has had a solid season for the Utes, but he’s tapered off significantly after a hot start to the year. He’s far from Utah’s biggest issue right now, but if he’s asked to be the sole driving force of a one-dimensional offense, Colorado will have no complaints with that approach.
Best bet on Utah vs. Colorado: Colorado -10.5 (FanDuel, -110)
With the over/under set in a very tough spot, Colorado covering the point spread is the best bet.
All signs point to Utah struggling to make any offensive headway in this game. Its offense ranks outside of the top-100 in the country by almost every metric, and that’s including a solid start to the year. Over the past month and a half, the Utes have been in an offensive free-fall, having scored more than 10 points just once in that span. Against a surprisingly solid Buffs defense, Utah figures to have a similar showing.
Prediction: Colorado 29, Utah 16