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Odds, preview and best bets for Washington Commanders vs. Baltimore Ravens
Can the Commanders continue their hot start in their toughest game so far?
| WHO | Washington Commanders vs. Baltimore Ravens |
| WHEN | Sunday, October 13, 2024 at 1:00pm ET |
| WHERE | M&T Bank Stadium | Baltimore, Maryland |
| HOW | CBS |
The Washington Commanders’ 4-1 start has been one of the biggest surprises so far in the 2024 NFL season. Rookie sensation Jayden Daniels is bringing hope to Commanders fans and drawing comparisons to a young Lamar Jackson. Now Daniels and his squad will face off against Jackson in their toughest test yet, and likely the toughest game on their schedule this season.
The Ravens have bounced back from their disappointing 0-2 start to stack together three straight wins, including a domination of the Bills two weeks ago and a dramatic overtime win over the Bengals last week. Derrick Henry has been everything they hoped he would be and is leading the league with 114.4 rushing yards per game and seven total touchdowns.
This matchup features the two top scoring offenses so far this season, and both defenses are in the bottom-12 in points allowed. So it’s no surprise that this game has one of the highest over/under totals on the Week 6 slate. Here are the current betting odds for Commanders vs. Ravens at some of the best online sportsbooks. These odds are current as of the most recent update of this article.
| Market | FanDuel | DraftKings | Caesars |
|---|---|---|---|
| Commanders spread | +7 (-115) | +6.5 (-104) | +6.5 (-105) |
| Ravens spread | -7 (-105) | -6.5 (-118) | -6.5 (-115) |
| Commanders moneyline | +250 | +250 | +240 |
| Ravens moneyline | -310 | -310 | -305 |
| Over | Over 51.5 (-110) | Over 51.5 (-105) | Over 51.5 (-110) |
| Under | Under 51.5 (-110) | Under 51.5 (-115) | Under 51.5 (-110) |
Why bet on the Commanders
If you are a true believer in Jayden Daniels, this might be the only reason you need to bet on the Commanders to cover the spread this week, even against the vaunted Ravens. It’s only been five games, but Daniels is putting together arguably the greatest rookie season by a quarterback in NFL history. He is leading the league with a whopping 77.1% completion percentage and is also first in adjusted EPA per play and completion percentage over expected. He is also top 5 in yards per attempt (8.7), passer rating (106.2), and QBR (73.2).
The Ravens’ defense is excellent, and easily the best unit Daniels has faced this season, but they can be beaten, especially through the air. Baltimore is the No. 1 run defense in the league, allowing just 60.4 yards per game on a league-best 3.1 yards per carry. On the flip side, the Ravens are allowing the second-most passing yards per game (280.2), which is partly because their staunch run defense has forced teams into a high volume of pass attempts (37.4 per game, 4th highest). But volume is not the only issue, as their per-play metrics tell a similar story. They are allowing the sixth-most net yards per pass attempt and the seventh-most expected points added (EPA) per drop back.
If Daniels continues to display the accuracy and sound decision-making that has made him so successful so far this season, then he should be able to have plenty of success in this matchup. That alone can keep the Commanders in this game, at least enough to keep the final margin under a touchdown.
Why bet on the Ravens
The key for the Ravens in this game is running back Derrick Henry. The Commanders’ defense has been good enough for them to win games given how dominant their offense has been, but it’s still one of the worst defenses in the league. They are 24th in defensive DVOA and 27th in EPA, and those figures were 30th and 32nd, respectively, prior to last week when they dominated the hapless Browns offense, which is dead last in both offensive DVOA and EPA by a considerable margin.
The Ravens can control this game by dominating on the ground with Henry, whose 6.0 average yards per carry is second only to J.K. Dobbins (6.1 ypc) among running backs with at least 35 carries (Lamar Jackson is also ahead of him at 6.8). Washington is allowing the third-most yards per carry (5.1) and they are 22nd overall in rushing defense. The Ravens’ best strategy in this game could be to dominate time of possession by running the ball and keeping it out of Jayden Daniels’ hands. That would be a surefire way not only to win this game but also likely to cover the spread.
There is also reason to think that the Ravens’ defense will be the first to find a way to slow down Daniels, for whom this blistering pace will be difficult to sustain. The Ravens’ pass defense metrics belie the overall talent of that unit, which finished No. 1 in DVOA and No. 2 in EPA last season with largely the same roster. If they can make Daniels look just good and not otherworldly, then the Ravens’ other advantages in this game should lead to a comfortable victory.
Best bet for Commanders vs. Ravens: Over 51.5 (-110, FanDuel)
If looking to bet the spread in this game, the underdog Commanders is the lean. We are believers in Daniels and expect him to rise to the challenge of his tough matchup, even if his final numbers don’t look as gaudy this week as in his first five starts. However, there are too many variables and too much uncertainty about how this game could play out to feel confident playing either side. The best odds for taking Washington against the spread in this matchup are also available at FanDuel Sportsbook, which is the only major sportsbook offering the Commanders at +7 today.
Instead, the play for this game is simply betting the over and rooting for a fun, high-scoring affair. It really is as simple as looking at the top two scoring offenses (and top two in EPA) against two below-average defenses (at least by the numbers) and just expecting plenty of points on both sides.
It is possible that the Ravens find the answers defensively for Daniels and contain the Commanders’ offense enough to depress the overall scoring. This would be especially true if Baltimore focuses on controlling time of possession with Henry and limiting the total possessions in the game. However, there is confidence in betting on Daniels and Jackson delivering the exciting shootout everyone is eager to see.
Prediction: Ravens 33, Commanders 28