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Minnesota Vikings vs. Jacksonville Jaguars: Week 10 game preview and best bets
Can the Vikings stay undefeated against the AFC? Is the Jaguars season over?
| WHO | Minnesota Vikings vs. Jacksonville Jaguars |
| WHEN | Sunday at 1 p.m. ET |
| WHERE | EverBank Stadium | Jacksonville, Fla. |
| HOW | FOX |
The Vikings started the 2024 NFL season with an incredible run, including relatively easy victories over four consecutive playoff contenders in the 49ers, Texans, Packers and Jets. But when Minnesota dropped two straight games and lost its star left tackle for the season, the vibes in Minnesota seemed to shift. However, after a get-right win on Sunday night against the Colts, the Vikings enter the softest part of their schedule with renewed optimism.
For the Jaguars, an unlikely second half comeback against the Eagles fell short, leaving Jacksonville at 2-7 overall and all but eliminated from playoff contention. In addition, reports on Thursday said that Trevor Lawrence is unlikely to play due to a shoulder injury. A loss to Minnesota could be the final nail in the coffin of the Jaguars’ 2024 season. Here are the current betting odds for Vikings vs. Jaguars at some of the best online sportsbooks.
| Market | FanDuel | DraftKings | Caesars |
|---|---|---|---|
| Vikings spread | -7 (-110) | -7 (-108) | -7 (-110) |
| Jaguars spread | +7 (-110) | +7 (-112) | +7 (-110) |
| Vikings money line | -330 | -325 | -325 |
| Jaguars money line | +265 | +260 | +260 |
| Over | Over 44.5 (-105) | Over 44 (-110) | Over 44 (-110) |
| Under | Under 44.5 (-115) | Under 44 (-110) | Under 44 (-110) |
Why bet on the Vikings
The biggest concern about the Vikings entering last week was how the offense would handle the absence of star left tackle Christian Darrisaw. After he went out with what turned out to be a season-ending injury at the end of the first half in Week 8 against the Rams, Minnesota quarterback Sam Darnold was under constant pressure in the second half. But the Vikings traded with the Jaguars for a replacement left tackle in Cam Robinson, and despite only arriving in Minnesota four days before the game, Robinson acquitted himself well in Week 9, allowing zero sacks and just two pressures in 34 dropbacks.
Where the Vikings offense struggled in Week 9 was in the interior of the offensive line, where the Colts generated consistent pressure. Unfortunately for Jacksonville, its four interior defensive linemen in rotation—DaVon Hamilton, Tyler Lacy, Jeremiah Ledbetter and Esezi Otomewo—have combined for just 1.5 sacks and six quarterback quarterback hits this season.
When the Jaguars generate pressure, it comes from the edge, where they have the dynamic duo of Josh Hines-Allen and Travon Walker. Those two could pose a challenge to Minnesota, but right tackle Brian O’Neill is a star, and Robinson should only be better with a full week of practice with his new squad. What will be most interesting to watch is who has the advantage between Robinson and his former teammates in a matchup between players who have practiced against each other for several years.
The Jaguars are 28th in net EPA/play and are dead last in the NFL on defense, including pass defense. Last week, in Darnold’s first game of the season with all his offensive weapons, he set season highs in completions, passing attempts, passing yards and completion percentage. Look for similarly impressive numbers for Darnold and his offensive weapons in Jacksonville.
On the other side of the ball, the Vikings defense has been elite this season. Minnesota is ranked No. 1 in DVOA and No. 2 in EPA/play, including first against the run and fourth against the pass. Defensive coordinator Brian Flores’ complicated blitz packages confuse opposing quarterbacks, leading to Minnesota’s 13 interceptions, two more than any other team, despite having played one fewer game than 20 teams. Lawrence leads the league in turnovers since he entered the NFL. Expect an interception or two from Lawrence this week, and the Vikings defense scoring their league-leading fourth touchdown of the season may not be a bad bet (+650, BetMGM).
Note: Since we originally published this article, news broke that indeed Lawrence is unlikely to play, and he will be replaced by Mac Jones. Now the point spread has shifted all the way to 7, the total has dropped to 44 or 44.5, and the money line is now between -325 and -335 for Minnesota and +260 to +265 for Jacksonville.
Why bet on the Jaguars
The Jaguars have not had a great season, but they haven’t been terrible at home. In four home games they have outscored their opponents by 11 points, with the biggest loss coming by five points, which is right around where the spread is at most NFL betting sites.
The vaunted Vikings pass rush, best in the league through the first seven weeks of the season, has largely disappeared. After the defense failed to even touch Matthew Stafford in Week 8, Minnesota did not sack Joe Flacco last week until the Colts’ final drive of the game.
Note: In his only game against Minnesota, Mac Jones had the best day of his career, going 28-of-39 for 382 yards and two touchdowns, for a 119.8 passer rating and 59.8 QBR. But of course, this is a different Vikings defense with a different defensive coordinator.
Largely due to Minnesota’s inability to get to the quarterback recently, the Vikings’ gaudy defensive numbers have regressed over the last three weeks. Their EPA/play on dropbacks has dropped to 28th (just one spot ahead of the Jaguars). During that three week span the rush defense has still been second in the league, so even if Tank Bigsby and Travis Etienne Jr. are healthy, Jacksonville is unlikely to run the ball well versus Minnesota.
Jones and Lawrence were in the same draft class and have each played four seasons. Unfortunately for the Jaguars, Jones has had a higher sack percentage than Lawrence in every season of his career. To the extent the Vikings pass rush has struggled the last three weeks, getting to face Jones instead of Lawrence should make it easier to reverse those struggles.
Despite the struggles of the Jacksonville defense against the pass, the Jaguars are still fourth in the league in EPA/play against the run. If the Vikings cannot get Aaron Jones going, the offense could become one-dimensional. And although the Jaguars pass defense has not been good, Darnold has been turnover-prone. Only Gardner Minshew has more turnovers than Darnold this season.
One final concern for Minnesota is special teams injuries. Vikings rookie kicker Will Reichard had not missed any kicks on the season until he missed two field goal attempts while trying to play through an injury last week. Now he’s on IR and out for at least the next four weeks, and his replacement, John Parker Romo, has never attempted a kick in a regular season NFL game.
In addition to Reichard, the Vikings also put All-Pro long snapper Andrew DePaola on IR this week. A new long snapper and new kicker could lead to issues for the Vikings on special teams.
While we initially picked the Jaguars earlier this week, we cannot recommend a bet on Jacksonville anymore given the uncertainty at the quarterback position. But the line has moved so far in Minnesota’s direction that there is no longer much value there.
Instead, here’s a three-touchdown same game parlay that has some value.
Best longshot bet for Vikings vs. Jaguars: Same-game parlay anytime touchdowns for T.J. Hockenson, Evan Engram, Minnesota defense (+10211, FanDuel)
The Vikings have already thrown four touchdown passes to tight ends this season, despite star tight end T.J. Hockenson not making his season debut until last week. Last week Hockenson was eased in, only playing on 45% of Vikings offensive snaps. His career offensive snap percentage in Minnesota is above 80%, so expect him to see a lot more action this week, including a visit to the end zone (+280, FanDuel).
Traditionally a backup quarterback will look more frequently to the checkdown, and tight ends can benefit. This is even more true for Jones, who has thrown an incredible 33% of his career touchdown passes to tight ends. Evan Engram leads the Jaguars with 30 targets over the last four games. (No one else even has 20.) Expect Jones to look Engram’s way frequently, including once in the end zone (+230, FanDuel).
We already recommended betting on the Vikings’ defense to score their league-leading fourth touchdown of the season. But with a backup quarterback in the game for Jacksonville, that bet looks even juicier (+750, FanDuel).
As this game may not be particularly competitive without Lawrence, backing this same-game parlay at longshot odds at FanDuel is one way you can get interesting action on the outcome.”
Prediction: Vikings 31, Jaguars 20