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Minnesota Vikings vs. Chicago Bears in Week 12: Game preview, best bets and odds
Can the Vikings keep pace in the stacked NFC North? Will the Bears keep their (slim) playoff hopes alive?
| WHO | Minnesota Vikings vs. Chicago Bears |
| WHEN | Sunday, November 24, 2024 at 1:00pm ET |
| WHERE | Soldier Field | Chicago, Illinois |
| HOW | FOX |
Fresh off a three-game winning streak against the AFC South, the Minnesota Vikings (8-2) return to division play with their first matchup against the Chicago Bears (4-6). The Bears, meanwhile, have seen a promising season go awry. After their dominating win in London against the Jacksonville Jaguars, they were 4-2 with the fourth-best point differential in the NFL – albeit also the fourth-best point differential in the division, which had some people speculating that the NFC North wasn’t just the best in the league in 2024 but in consideration for the best division in league history.
Since then, everything has gone wrong in Chicago. The Bears have lost four consecutive games, scoring fewer than 20 points in each defeat. Rookie quarterback Caleb Williams has regressed, completing just 50.5% of his passes during the first three games on the losing streak with 4.9 yards per attempt and 18 sacks. Coach Matt Eberflus found himself on the hot seat and reacted by firing his offensive coordinator.
The Bears’ offense improved a bit against the Green Bay Packers last week in Thomas Brown’s first game calling plays, but just barely. Williams set a career high in completion percentage (74.2%) while having his third-best game in terms of passing yards, yards per attempt and sack percentage. But he still hasn’t thrown or run for a touchdown since the contest in London on Oct. 13, and Chicago has failed to reach the 20-point plateau since then.
This time, Eberflus had no one to blame but himself. Trailing 20-19 late in the fourth quarter, Williams completed a pass to Keenan Allen to give Bears a first down on the Green Bay 30 with 48 seconds to go. Chicago was on the edge of field-goal range, but as every smart coach knows, “field-goal range” is not binary but a spectrum, and every extra yard gained increases the probability of a converted kick.
Unfortunately for the Bears, Eberflus is not such a smart coach. Seeming to act as if his team had an automatic three points pending, he let the clock bleed until the Packers called a timeout with 35 seconds remaining. Then, rather than trying to gain additional yards to help his kicker, Eberflus had his backup running back fall forward for two yards and then allowed the clock to tick down to just three seconds.
In came kicker Cairo Santos to attempt a 46-yard field goal that perhaps could have been closer, and his attempt was blocked. Rather than admit fault, Eberflus tried to blame the officials.
Can Eberflus and the Bears end the losing streak and keep alive their shrinking playoff hopes? Or will the Vikings help push Eberflus further out the door? Here are the current betting odds for Vikings vs. Bears at some of the best online sportsbooks. These odds are current as of the most recent update of this article.
| Market | FanDuel | DraftKings | Caesars |
|---|---|---|---|
| Vikings spread | -3.5 (-102) | -3.5 (-105) | -3.5 (-105) |
| Bears spread | +3.5 (-120) | +3.5 (-115) | +3.5 (-115) |
| Vikings money line | -176 | -170 | -178 |
| Bears money line | +148 | +142 | +150 |
| Over | Over 39.5 (-112) | Over 39.5 (-110) | Over 39.5 (-110) |
| Under | Under 39.5 (-108) | Under 39.5 (-110) | Under 39.5 (-110) |
Why bet on the Vikings
The Vikings have had three consecutive wins that weren’t as close as the final score. Last week, Minnesota had 24 first downs to 11 for the Tennessee Titans, whose only touchdown came on a 98-yard fluke play on third-and-11. A week earlier, the Vikings set a league high in time of possession while holding the Jaguars to just 143 yards, with the 12-7 final only being close because Sam Darnold couldn’t stop throwing interceptions in the end zone. Take away the Titans’ 98-yard TD and the Vikings have been allowing well below 200 yards per game this month.
While the Bears haven’t scored 20 points in more than a month, the Vikings have allowed the third-fewest points in the league at just 17 per game. It was noted in a piece last week that Williams has been the worst of all the first-round rookie quarterbacks this year. Perhaps his biggest issue has been avoiding the rush, as he’s been sacked a league-high 41 times and owns the worst sack percentage among every QB who has played more than seven games.
Enter Minnesota’s defense, which has recorded an NFL-high 115 quarterback pressures thanks to a league-best blitz rate of more than 35%. Even wise veteran quarterbacks like Aaron Rodgers have had trouble dealing with the Vikings’ unpredictable defense. How do you think Williams will fare?
Minnesota has won five of its last six meetings with Chicago, the lone loss coming last season by two points when fourth-string quarterback Joshua Dobbs threw four interceptions.
Why bet on the Bears
Chicago has lost four straight, but as noted above, Williams was dramatically better last week in new play-caller Brown’s debut, and if not for Eberflus’ miserable clock/field management in the final minute, the Bears likely would have completed the upset against Green Bay.
Also noted earlier, the Bears beat the Vikings last year when they picked off Minnesota four times. Darnold leads the NFL with 14 turnovers and the Bears are seventh in the league with 17 takeaways. Chicago’s pass defense has the best net EPA and has allowed the fewest passing touchdowns.
The Vikings have played with their food the last three weeks, winning by a combined 23 points against three miserable AFC South teams who collectively have a minus-192 point differential in all their other games. The Bears, even with their four-game losing streak, still have a positive point differential on the season. Chicago isn’t good, but it is ranked 18th in net EPA/play – still far better than anyone else Minnesota has faced this month.
Best bet for Vikings vs. Bears: Minnesota first quarter -1.5 (+132, FanDuel)
The Vikings have outscored opponents 82-20 (+6.2 PPG) in the first quarter this year, while the Bears have been outscored in the opening 15 minutes by a nearly as lopsided 46-13 margin (-3.3 PPG). It seems safe to assume that Minnesota will lead at the end of the first quarter (+125, DraftKings). But unless one thinks its lead will be just one point, get a little extra juice by taking the spread.
If looking beyond the first quarter toward the first-half spread, Minnesota has led its opponents by an average of 5.3 PPG at halftime, while Chicago has trailed by an average of 2 PPG. One could grab a Vikings halftime lead (-155, Caesars) or use an alternate halftime spread if they think Minnesota will lead by a touchdown at the break (-6.5, +145, Caesars).
If interested in a longshot bet, because of the Vikings’ fast starts, their games have much higher scoring first quarters than most teams’. Minnesota’s contests have totaled 102 points in the first quarter, 103 in the second, 96 in the third and 113 in the fourth. Those numbers are pretty even, so if looking for value, consider the first quarter as the highest-scoring one (+625, Caesars).
Prediction: Vikings 23, Bears 17 (Exact Score, +10000, DraftKings)