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An intriguing 12 vs. 5 matchup in the 2025 NCAA Tournament takes place Thursday as the No. 5 seed Michigan Wolverines (25-9) take on No. 12 UC San Diego (30-4). The Wolverines overcame a late-season slump to roll all the way to the Big Ten Tournament title. The Tritons won the Big West Tournament in convincing fashion, beating UC Irvine 75-61 in the title game. 

The game from Ball Arena in Denver tips off at 10 p.m. ET. The Wolverines are 2.5-point favorites in the latest Michigan vs. UC San Diego odds from the SportsLine Consensus, while the over/under for total points scored is 144.5, up two from the opening line. Before making any UC San Diego vs. Michigan picks, be sure to check out the college basketball predictions from the SportsLine Projection Model.

The model simulates every Division 1 college basketball game 10,000 times. It enters the 2025 NCAA Tournament on a 228-166 roll (+2025) on all top-rated college basketball picks dating back to 2023. This model has also produced brackets that have beaten over 91% of CBS Sports entries in four of the last six tournaments and nailed 24 first-round upsets by double-digit seeds. Anyone following could have seen huge returns.

Now, the model has set its sights on Michigan vs. UC San Diego and just locked in its March Madness predictions. You can visit SportsLine now to see the model's picks. Here are the college basketball odds and lines for UC San Diego vs. Michigan:

  • Michigan vs. UC San Diego spread: Michigan -2.5
  • Michigan vs. UC San Diego over/under: 144.5 points 
  • Michigan vs. UC San Diego money line: Michigan -138, UC San Diego +115
  • MICH: 17-16 against the spread (ATS) this season 
  • UCSD: 25-7 ATS this season 
  • Michigan vs. UC San Diego picks: See picks at SportsLine

Why Michigan can cover

The Wolverines are arguably under-seeded after they won the Big Ten Tournament and piled up 12 quad-1 victories this season. The hiring of coach Dusty May, known for his 2023 Final Four run with FAU, instantly paid dividends for the Wolverines as they ended a two-year tournament drought. One more win this year will match their combined number of victories from the past two seasons. 

Michigan was boosted by a pair of 7-foot transfers this season. Vladislav Goldin followed May from FAU and he led the Wolverines with 16.7 points per game in 2024-25. Danny Wolf came from Yale and averaged 13.1 points and led the team with 9.8 rebounds. Their inside presence helped Michigan rank third in the Big Ten in rebounding (38.2 rpg), and the big men could present matchup problems for a smaller UC San Diego lineup. See which team to pick here.

Why UC San Diego can cover 

Twelve seeds are historically dangerous in March, and this squad has the look of one that could make a run. The Tritons, who were an astonishing 25-7 against the spread this season, averaged 80 points per game and they were extremely stingy on defense as well, giving up just 61 points per contest. The Wolverines went through a big offensive slump late in the regular season, so if their shots aren't falling, they might not be able to keep up with the Tritons, who ranked 53rd nationally in 3-point percentage (36.6%).

Senior Aniwaniwa Tait-Jones is a potential x-factor for the Tritons. The native of New Zealand leads the Tritons, and ranks 28th nationally, in scoring at 19.5 points per game. Senior Hayden Gray, meanwhile, averages 11.2 points per game and is one of the team's most dangerous 3-point shooters at 42.8%. See which team to pick here.

How to make Michigan vs. UC San Diego picks

SportsLine's model is leaning Over on the total, projecting 148 combined points. It has also generated an against-the-spread pick that hits in well over 50% of simulations. You can only get the model's picks at SportsLine.

So who wins UC San Diego vs. Michigan, and which side of the spread hits in well over 50% of simulations? Visit SportsLine now to see which side of the spread to jump on, all from the advanced model that has returned more than $2,000 on its top-rated college basketball picks, and find out.