Men's tournament 13 vs. 4 upset rankings: Is Purdue vulnerable to an early exit?

In the past seven years, No. 4 seeds have fallen victim to seven first-round upsets

Back in the day, I would always pick a No. 12 seed to upset a No. 5 seed in the college basketball bracket. However, in recent years, I have changed to picking a No. 13 seed to advance. 

A No. 13 seed has defeated a No. 4 seed in the tournament 33 times. The first time it happened was back in 1985 when Navy shocked LSU 78-55. The Midshipmen had a kid named David Robinson, who went on to have a Hall of Fame career in the NBA. 

A No. 13 seed winning in the tournament has become a bit of a recent trend. Since 2018, a No. 13 has beaten a No. 4 seven times. In 2021, two 13 seeds won when North Texas defeated Purdue and Ohio upset Virginia. 

The feat has also happened in each of the last two college basketball brackets. In 2023, it was Virginia again, this time losing to Furman. Last year, Yale sent Bruce Pearl and No. 4 seed Auburn packing with a 78-76 win.

What are the chances that a No. 13 seed beats a No. 4 seed this year? I think they are pretty good for at least one. Below, we break down the matchups to determine which the No. 13 seed has the best chance to pull an upset. 

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13 vs. 4 upset rankings

These are ordered from least likely to most likely.

4. Grand Canyon over Maryland 

Matchups play an important role in upsets. Grand Canyon is a talented mid-major, although I don't think the Antelopes got a great matchup against Maryland. 

Both of these teams play super fast, ranking top 60 in pace. Usually when mid-major teams try to play fast with bigger schools that have more talent, it doesn't end well. Running and getting out in transition is Maryland's game, and the Terrapins do it well. 

There is one caveat here. The Terps have the most productive starting five in the country but little depth. In a fast-paced game, maybe a deeper Grand Canyon squad wears Maryland down. That is its best path to pulling an upset. 

3. High Point over Purdue 

I wasn't high on this Purdue squad entering the season and the Boilermakers have done little since to change my mind. The Boilermakers really struggle defensively, ranking 350th in two-point field-goal percentage. That ranking is so bad I had to look twice to make sure it was accurate. 

What that means is Purdue gives up way too many easy baskets. This is great news for a High Point offense that ranks 15th in two-point field goal percentage. The Panthers are experienced and one of the deepest teams in the country. If Purdue doesn't come to play, the Boilermakers' stay in the tournament will be a short one. 

2. Yale over Texas A&M 

Normally, Yale would rank at the top of the list. The Bulldogs are always dangerous in the bracket and we only need to look to last season when they upset SEC powerhouse Auburn as a No. 13 seed. Will lightning strike again? It certainly could. 

Yale is efficient on offense and a good rebounding team. However, it is facing a Texas A&M team that ranks seventh in defensive efficiency and first in offensive rebounding percentage. The Aggies struggle to make perimeter shots, a weakness that will likely send A&M home at some point. 

This was the toughest game for me to pick in my brackets. I ended up siding with Texas A&M, although I can see Yale pulling a 13-4 upset for the second straight season. 

1. Akron over Arizona 

Start your engines. If you like watching two teams race up and down the court, Arizona vs. Akron is the game for you. The Zips play at the 16th-fastest pace in the country, while Arizona comes in at 54th. 

I mentioned above that when mid-major teams that play fast face a power conference opponent that employs a similar style, it usually doesn't end well. The difference here is Akron is more talented than Grand Canyon. Guards win in March and the Zips have two good ones in Nate Johnson (14.0 ppg) and Tavari Johnson (13.0 ppg).

This is going to be a track meet and maybe Arizona just outscores the Zips. However, I think Akron has a real shot to pull the upset and I picked the Zips to win in my brackets.