Trainer Brad Cox is already a Kentucky Derby winner with Mandaloun in 2021, but because he wasn't ruled the winner until the following year when Medina Spirit was officially disqualified, Cox hasn't enjoyed the winner's circle in the "Run for the Roses." On Saturday at the 2023 Kentucky Derby, he'll have four horses running in the first leg of the Triple Crown at Churchill Downs. Thus far, Cox has avoided the rash of scratches that has impacted the Kentucky Derby 2023 and is expected to have Hit Show, Angel of Empire, Verifying and Jace's Road in the starting gate for the 2023 Kentucky Derby post time at 6:57 p.m. ET.
Angel of Empire is a 9-2 co-favorite alongside Todd Pletcher's Tapit Trice in the 2023 Kentucky Derby odds. Meanwhile, Hit Show is listed at 26-1, Verifying -- a son of 2018 Triple Crown winner Justify -- is at 16-1, and Jace's Road is at 32-1. Cox is a Louisville native and leads North American trainers in earnings for 2023 entering Saturday at Churchill Downs. With very little separating the top contenders in this wide-open 2023 Kentucky Derby lineup, you'll want to see what SportsLine horse racing guru Gene Menez has to say before making any Kentucky Derby picks.
A former reporter and editor at Sports Illustrated, Menez covered an array of sports, including horse racing, for the magazine and its website for almost 14 years. Between 2010 and 2012, he served as SI's handicapper for the Triple Crown races and correctly predicted Super Saver to win the Kentucky Derby in 2010. In 2015, while writing for Sports on Earth, Menez accurately gave out the Kentucky Derby superfecta (American Pharoah, Firing Line, Dortmund and Frosted), which paid $1,268.20 for $2. Then in 2017, he tweeted out his Kentucky Derby picks, including Always Dreaming to win, and hit the Pick 4, which paid almost $6,900 on a $1 bet.
On Dec. 26, Menez hit the Pick 5 at Santa Anita Park for $798.70. And in his last seven races for SportsLine he has cashed the winner of the Lecomte Stakes ($172.50), the exacta in the Southwest Stakes ($468), the winner of the Holy Bull Stakes ($180), the winner of the Sam F. Davis Stakes ($228), the place horse of the Rebel Stakes ($102.50) and the trifecta in the Jenny Wiley Stakes ($255.50).
Now, he has handicapped the 2023 Kentucky Derby lineup, made his picks and constructed his bets. You can only see them here.
Top 2023 Kentucky Derby expert predictions
One surprise: Menez is fading Tapit Trice, even though he is the 9-2 co-favorite. Trained by Todd Pletcher, Tapit Trice has four wins and one third in five career starts. He is coming off a victory in the Blue Grass Stakes.
But no horse in the field was hurt more by Monday's post draw than Tapit Trice, who was assigned the No. 5 post. "The problem with the post is that he's on the inside, but he needs to pass horses on the outside," Menez told SportsLine. Menez is using Tapit Trice only sparingly in his 2023 Kentucky Derby bets. See which other horses to fade here.
Another curveball: Menez is high on Two Phil's at 7-1. Two Phil's, trained by Larry Rivelli, has hit the board in four straight races. That span includes wins at the 2022 Street Sense and the 2023 Jeff Ruby Stakes. His win at the Jeff Ruby in March featured the fastest speed figure of his career, helping his stock rise heading into the Kentucky Derby 2023.
Some discounted that speed because it came on a synthetic surface. But Menez was impressed and has Two Phil's very close to the top of his leaderboard. "He has run well on dirt before, winning the Street Sense at Churchill Downs and finishing second in the Lecomte and third in the Risen Star Stakes," Menez told SportsLine. See which other horses to back here.
How to make 2023 Kentucky Derby bets
Menez's top pick is a horse who's "getting better at the right time." He also is high on a massive double-digit longshot who "always passes horses late." He is including these horses in his 2023 Kentucky Derby bets, and so should you. He's sharing which horses to back only at SportsLine.
So what double-digit longshot wins the Kentucky Derby? What double-digit longshot is a must-back? And how has Menez constructed his wagers? Check out the latest 2023 Kentucky Derby odds below, then visit SportsLine to see Menez's picks for the Kentucky Derby, all from the expert who has nailed this year's prep races.
2023 Kentucky Derby odds, horses, post draw
| Prg # | Horse | Odds | Projection |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Hit Show | 26-1 | SEE PICKS |
| 2 | Verifying | 16-1 | SEE PICKS |
| 3 | Two Phil's | 7-1 | SEE PICKS |
| 4 | Confidence Game | 17-1 | SEE PICKS |
| 5 | Tapit Trice | 9-2 | SEE PICKS |
| 6 | Kingsbarns | 10-1 | SEE PICKS |
| 7 | Reincarnate | 13-1 | SEE PICKS |
| 8 | Mage | 17-1 | SEE PICKS |
| 9 | Skinner | SCR | |
| 10 | Practical Move | SCR | |
| 11 | Disarm | 24-1 | SEE PICKS |
| 12 | Jace's Road | 32-1 | SEE PICKS |
| 13 | Sun Thunder | 30-1 | SEE PICKS |
| 14 | Angel of Empire | 9-2 | SEE PICKS |
| 15 | Forte | SCR | |
| 16 | Raise Cain | 30-1 | SEE PICKS |
| 17 | Derma Sotogake | 7-1 | SEE PICKS |
| 18 | Rocket Can | 27-1 | SEE PICKS |
| 19 | Lord Miles | SCR | |
| 20 | Continuar | SCR | |
| 21 | Cyclone Mischief | 31-1 | SEE PICKS |
| 22 | Mandarin Hero | 21-1 | SEE PICKS |
| 23 | King Russell | 32-1 | SEE PICKS |
