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Best anytime touchdown bets for Bills vs. Texans in Week 5
Will Stefon Diggs find the endzone against his former team?
The Buffalo Bills visit the Houston Texans this Sunday in a showdown between two AFC heavyweights. The Bills and Texans have the third- and fourth-best odds, respectively, to win the AFC this season, and they could be destined for a rematch of this game in the playoffs later this season. This game is essentially a pick’em with the Texans being just 1-point favorites against the spread while the over/under is set at 46.5 total points.
One of the big storylines in this game is Texans wide receiver Stefon Diggs facing his former team, who traded the previously disgruntled star to Houston this offseason. Diggs is leading the Texans in touchdowns so far this season after scoring for the third time last week against Jacksonville. Could Diggs be a good bet to cross the goal line again this week in a revenge game?
Let’s discuss some of the best anytime touchdown prop bets in this Bills vs Texans matchup. We have already done some of the legwork for you by finding the best betting odds from across the industry. Of course, these odds are always subject to change, so it’s worth double-checking the odds at all of the best online sportsbooks before placing any bets.
Stefon Diggs (+175, Caesars)
Let’s pay off that tease right away. This pick is less about any complicated analysis or statistical breakdown and more based purely on the narrative of Diggs facing his former team. Sports betting is meant to be fun more than anything else, and betting on Diggs to score against his former team is just plain fun. Diggs is also the type of player who relishes these types of opportunities. Even if he would never say so publicly, you know Diggs is going to have some extra juice for this game, and so will his teammates, most importantly C.J. Stroud.
Of course, there is also some statistical basis for this pick as well. As noted above, Diggs is leading the Texans with three touchdowns already this season, even though Nico Collins has been Stroud’s favorite red zone target. Diggs has three targets inside the red zone compared to Collins’ seven, but Diggs has been more successful with those opportunities. The Texans have also been creative with scheming up opportunities to get the ball to Diggs near the goal line; he scored on an end around against the Jaguars last week.
Cam Akers (+130, Caesars)
Joe Mixon has already been ruled out for this game and will be missing his third-straight game with an ankle injury. In his absence, Cam Akers has handled the bulk of the Texans’ backfield work. While Akers has split snaps very evenly with pass-catching back Dare Ogunbowale, Akers has touched the ball on 39% of his 59 snaps while Ogunbowale has only been utilized on eight of his 57 snaps. Between the two, Akers is far more likely to score a touchdown, even though both players have scored exactly one touchdown in the last two games.
The Bills’ weak run defense is another factor favoring this bet. So far this season, Buffalo is 6th against the pass and just 29th against the run. A big reason for that is Derrick Henry’s 199-yard explosion last week, but even more advanced analytics are not favorable for Buffalo’s run-stopping unit. They are 30th in EPA and 23rd in success rate allowed against the run. They are also allowing a league-high 5.7 yards per carry, which is not only because of Henry’s 87-yard run last week. Even without that outlier data point, they would still be 27th in yards per carry allowed (4.95).
Akers is the running back who is most likely to score a touchdown in this game, even more than the Bills’ James Cook, whose best price currently is +105 at FanDuel Sportsbook. Akers is being undervalued with his +130 odds at Caesars right now, as his best odds at any other sportsbook is +100 at DraftKings. Along with his expected usage and favorable matchup, any odds at even money or better would make for a solid anytime touchdown bet.
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Dalton Kincaid (+240, Caesars)
On the other side of this matchup, tight end Dalton Kincaid is our favorite touchdown scorer pick on the Bills this week. The Bills’ leading receiver and most-targeted pass catcher so far this season has been slot Khalil Shakir, who has already been ruled out for this game with an ankle injury. That creates even more opportunities for Kincaid, who runs similar routes as Shakir from the slot and also operates primarily over the middle of the field. Several Bills pass catchers could see an uptick in volume this week with Shakir out, most notably Curtis Samuel (another interesting TD bet). However, Kincaid appears to be the most likely beneficiary.
Kincaid is off to a slow start this season relative to his lofty expectations. The 2023 1st-round pick is averaging 9.1 fewer yards per game on 1.3 fewer receptions compared to his stellar rookie season. He was expected to take on an even bigger role in the Bills’ offense after Diggs’ departure, but his role instead has diminished. That said, his targets and yards have increased every week so far this season, and with the additional opportunity created by Shakir’s absence, this week could be his breakout game.