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With the 2025 Kentucky Derby set to run on Saturday, May 3 at Churchill Downs, the final preparations are underway for the first leg of this year's horse racing triple crown. The 2025 Kentucky Derby post draw is scheduled for Saturday, April 26, and at that point we know exactly how the 2025 Kentucky Derby field will line up. The No. 5 and No. 20 posts have traditionally fared better than the others, with each spot producing a 10.5% win all-time win percentage. Journalism, trained by Michael W. McCarthy, enters as the 3-1 favorite in the latest 2025 Kentucky Derby odds. With the Kentucky Derby 2025 offering arguably the best betting opportunity of any sporting event of the year, you'll want to get as much 2025 Kentucky Derby expert advice as possible. Before making any 2025 Kentucky Derby picks, be sure to see the horse racing predictions and futures bets from SportsLine's elite horse racing expert Jody Demling.
A fixture in the horse racing world who has been writing about, talking about and betting on races for years, Demling has nailed the Kentucky Oaks-Derby double 11 times in the last 16 years. He also predicted the winner of the Belmont Stakes four of the last seven years and called 10 of the last 20 Preakness winners, including in 2023, when he hit the winner, exacta, trifecta and superfecta, as well as the trifecta in 2024. Anyone who has followed him on those picks is up huge.
Now, with the 2025 Kentucky Derby futures already on the board, Demling is sharing his picks and 2025 Kentucky Derby predictions over at SportsLine. Go here to see them.
Top 2025 Kentucky Derby predictions
One of Demling's surprising 2025 Kentucky Derby picks: He is fading Rodriguez, even though he's one of the favorites. In fact, Demling says Rodriguez doesn't even hit the board in his 2025 Kentucky Derby projections. The Bob Baffert-trained horse was not able to break through early this year, finishing second in the Robert B. Lewis Stakes and third in the San Felipe Stakes. However, he picked up an impressive victory in the Wood Memorial earlier this month in his first start without blinkers.
Wood Memorial winners tend to struggle in the Kentucky Derby, as the best finish by a Wood winner in the Derby since 2013 was Tactius, who was third in 2019. The last horse to pull off the double was Fusaichi Pegasus in 2000, and Rodriguez is considered by many to be a second stringer from Baffert's barn. None of his Wood Memorial competitors were graded winners, which suggests that his price for the Derby might be too short. See which other 2025 Kentucky Derby horses to avoid at SportsLine.
Another stunner: Demling is high on Luxor Cafe, even though he is a 15-1 longshot in the latest Kentucky Derby odds 2025. Luxor Cafe has the championship-caliber pedigree needed to compete and win at a track like Churchill Downs. Luxor Cafe is sired by American Pharoah, who won the horse racing Triple Crown in 2015 and became the first horse in history to complete the American grand slam later that year with a Breeders' Cup Classic win.
"The son of Triple Crown champion American Pharaoh dusted the competition on the Japanese Road to the Derby. His resume looks better after the UAE Derby because he crushed the winner previously," Demling told SportsLine. At 15-1, Demling believes Luxor Cafe offers plenty of betting value. See which other horses to back at SportsLine.
How to make 2025 Kentucky Derby picks, bets
Demling is especially high on a double-digit longshot who "has a legit shot." Demling is sharing which horse it is, along with his entire projected 2025 Kentucky Derby leaderboard, over at SportsLine.
Which horse wins the Kentucky Derby 2025, and which double-digit longshot is a must-back? Check out the latest 2025 Kentucky Derby odds below, then visit SportsLine to see Demling's picks for the Kentucky Derby, all from the expert who has nailed 11 Derby-Oaks doubles.
2025 Kentucky Derby odds, futures
| Horse | Odds | Projection |
|---|---|---|
| Journalism | 3-1 | SEE PICKS |
| Sandman | 8-1 | SEE PICKS |
| Sovereignty | 8-1 | SEE PICKS |
| Rodriguez | 10-1 | SEE PICKS |
| Tappan Street | 10-1 | SEE PICKS |
| Burnham Square | 15-1 | SEE PICKS |
| Luxor Cafe | 15-1 | SEE PICKS |
| Citizen Bull | 20-1 | SEE PICKS |
| East Avenue | 20-1 | SEE PICKS |
| Grande | 20-1 | SEE PICKS |
| Owen Almighty | 50-1 | SEE PICKS |
| Tiztastic | 20-1 | SEE PICKS |
| American Promise | 30-1 | SEE PICKS |
| Chunk of Gold | 30-1 | SEE PICKS |
| Coal Battle | 30-1 | SEE PICKS |
| Final Gambit | 30-1 | SEE PICKS |
| Publisher | 30-1 | SEE PICKS |
| Admire Daytona | 50-1 | SEE PICKS |
| Flood Zone | 50-1 | SEE PICKS |
| Flying Mohawk | 50-1 | SEE PICKS |
