The first five weeks of this Fantasy Football season have been anything but typical. Shuffled schedules, tons of injuries, disappointments and surprises galore. So what's next? Count on teams starting to change how they use their players. Anyone who's been underperforming up to this point could be in danger of losing playing time. Anyone who's been hot one week, cold the next could see their role change for the better in hopes of sparking an offense. Count on the teams with clever playcallers (like the Cardinals and Cowboys, who play each other) to show you how it's done.
More Week 6 help: Start 'Em & Sit 'Em | QB | RB | WR | Starts and sits, sleepers and busts | PPR Cheat Sheet | Non-PPR Cheat Sheet | QB Preview | RB Preview | WR Preview | TE Preview | Biggest Questions | Waivers | Cut List | Trade Values | Winners and Losers | Believe It or Not
The FFT crew breaks down key Week 6 injuries and lineup issues on the Sunday Fantasy Football Today podcast. Follow all of our podcasts and subscribe here.
All lines from William Hill Sportsbook.
What the line wants us to believe: The Patriots will mop the floor with the Broncos. And they might — getting Cam Newton back upped the line from minus-9 to minus-10. Denver won't be able to run as much as it wants to against this good front seven, and Drew Lock should be good for a couple of turnovers.
Of course I realize recommending Patriots running backs in Fantasy is like juggling fireballs, but there are some factors that draw me in. In his first meaningful NFL game, Harris recorded 17 carries, way more than any Patriots running back has posted in any game this season. And yes, 11 of his 17 carries went for 3 yards or less, but that's because he ran against a run-focused Chiefs defense that dared the Pats to throw. Nonetheless, he ran hard, didn't waste steps in the backfield and flashed speed and power. It's unlikely he'll spike a Broncos run defense that's given up one really bad run all year (59 yards to James Conner late in Week 2), but he's worth going with in non-PPR leagues since he profiles as a (hopefully) 15-touch runner.
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What the line wants us to believe: The Browns are for real. But Pittsburgh has found ways to win each week, and it's been by more than a field goal. So why only three points? They could have gotten away with at least minus-4.5. As tempted as I am to say the Steelers are a sucker bet, I just believe they're a better put-together team. Baker Mayfield's been a little too inaccurate to give the Browns a real shot. I'm also not sure the Browns can hit their implied team total of 24 points.
Landry has posted at least 12 PPR points in each of the past two weeks, both matchups in which Baker Mayfield attempted at least 30 passes. Bank on Mayfield throwing plenty -- the Steelers have seen opposing passers attempt 36-plus throws in 3 of 4 games, and they've given up multiple touchdowns to wide receivers in three of four games. The Steelers played a ton of zone against the Browns in 2019 and figure to do the same here, probably in an effort to keep Odell Beckham from beating them deep. That's good news for Landry, who actually has a better yards after catch average (2.72 per reception) and catch rate (78.3%) against zone coverage this year than Beckham (2.56, 59.3%). The nine targets and 88 yards he had last week were season-highs and a step in the right direction.
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This feels like a lay-up. The Browns pass defense is clearly the weakness of the defense, ranking in the top six of Fantasy points allowed to quarterbacks and third with 313.8 passing yards per game given up. Roethlisberger has had a minimum of 22 Fantasy points in each game and his accuracy is currently at a career-high level (69.9%). If he can fine-tune his deep passing, he'll be incredibly dangerous. As it is, he's a three-score candidate.
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There are two things Claypool's four-score explosion did: It put another weapon on the field for defenses to deal with, and it built Ben Roethlisberger's confidence in the rookie. Claypool had already played a ton of snaps in Week 3 when Diontae Johnson was inactive and got in there again last Sunday. The Steelers would be nuts not to keep using Claypool given his massive size and startlingly good agility. But Fantasy managers should keep expectations in check -- he remains a touchdown-reliant giant who probably will see his target share sink to six per game. However, the Browns have given up eight scores to wideouts through five weeks including five in their past three games.
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What the line wants us to believe: The Texans will stay close with their division rival. At this point I completely believe in the Titans. Practice? Who needs it?! Lean on Derrick Henry? Nah, not a requirement. They're an incredibly good team offensively and they were ballhawks on defense. The Texans offense should keep rolling, but it's the Texans defense that figures to fall back to earth.
Cooks did it all last week -- slants, screens, crossers and deep routes. The key was that he was given the chance to do it all thanks to a season-high 12 targets and a ridiculous 34% target share. Last week was, however, his third game in four with at least a 19% target share, proof that he's been involved. But the hope is that the Texans' offensive changes in the wake of Bill O'Brien's firing included Cooks being relevant moving forward, not just for a super-easy matchup against Jacksonville. The Titans pass defense has seen wide receivers average 196.5 yards per game versus them this year (sixth-highest), and the game is pegged to the third-highest over/under total of the week. Cooks is worth the risk as a third receiver or flex.
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Tannehill continues to play beyond imagination -- he's posted at least 21 Fantasy points in 12 of his past 15 regular-season games (80% success rate) with five of the 12 going for at least 25 points. That includes two 2019 games against Houston. The Texans pass defense technically had good games against Lamar Jackson and Kirk Cousins, but game script favored a run-heavy approach from both teams. Figure this game will be more competitive since the Titans' defense isn't particularly stout. It's a short week for the Titans to prep, but they barely practiced going into their game versus the Bills and crushed them!
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What the line wants us to believe: The Colts are the far better team, even with Philip Rivers quarterbacking. Honestly, it's a testament to the rest of their squad, because this line feels fair (the public is leaning toward the Bengals). The Bengals lost defensive tackle D.J. Reader, making their already vulnerable run defense even weaker. Jonathan Taylor is a DFS cheat code.
I might have better luck convincing the sun to stop shining than to talk you out of starting a running back currently ranked third in carries, but here goes. Indianapolis' run defense was missing its best run stopper last week and still held the Browns rushers to relatively tame numbers on the ground (3.7 yards per carry). The Colts are equally adept at containing running backs out of the backfield, allowing 6.8 yards per catch to the position (10th best in NFL). Before the fourth quarter last week, Mixon had 21 total yards and needed garbage time to get all the way to 84 scoreless yards. Whatever goodwill he earned in his Week 4 matchup against lowly Jacksonville shouldn't be carried over in a road matchup against the Colts.
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At this point, Hilton is impossible to trust in Fantasy as anything more than a low-end No. 3 receiver. This has a lot to do with the Colts' offensive philosophy of spreading work around to everyone as well as Philip Rivers' arm just not being what it once was. Hilton might be a half-step slower than in prior years, too. Even in two games where Hilton had nine-plus targets, he failed to get to the 15-point PPR/10-point non-PPR threshold. The Colts figure to be in position to run the ball effectively against the Bengals, who rank 30th against the run and lost defensive tackle D.J. Reader to injury.
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Higgins has seen more targets than A.J. Green for three straight weeks, so any absence Green might have in Week 6 shouldn't particularly affect the rookie. What we do know about Higgins is that he's using his size and solid speed well, and Burrow has noticed with a 22% target share in those past three. Higgins also is particularly more efficient against zone coverages (14.4 yards per catch, 5.5 yards after catch per reception) than man coverages (11.7 yards per catch, 1.5 yards after catch per receptions). The Colts predominantly play zone defense and don't figure to change for the Bengals. With a very safe 10-point PPR floor, which he's hit in three straight, Higgins should work as a No. 3 receiver. He'll also be a part of my DFS lineups.
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What the line wants us to believe: The Vikings aren't as good as their near-win at Seattle suggests. Sure, Minnesota works as a home favorite despite their one-win record, but couldn't the oddsmakers give them a few more points? They want you to bet on the Vikings, so they must figure Todd Gurley and the Falcons will keep it close. They might be right now that Julio Jones is expected to play.
Ryan started as a definitive sit when the week began, but that was before Julio Jones was cleared to play. All signs point to Ryan rebounding now that the Vikings must account for the towering Jones -- on top of Calvin Ridley and the rest of the Falcons offense. Minnesota's pass defense has been among the worst in football, yielding the 12th-most points to opposing quarterbacks, though even that stat is propped up by a quiet outing by Philip Rivers. How about this: A quarterback has thrown for over 300 yards and/or totaled three touchdowns in all but one game against Minnesota this year. I expect a competitive game with the Falcons fighting like mad to land their first win.
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The Falcons are trying to get Hurst going, giving him six targets in each of their past two games, but seeing nothing good come of it. He should have had a red-zone touchdown in Week 5 but Ryan overthrew him. He should have had another catch but it went off his hands. And he's rarely being targeted farther than 10 yards downfield. It's cool that Hurst looks like the 90s version of The Undertaker in a Falcons uni and helmet, but that doesn't rack up Fantasy points. Minnesota's defense is weaker than usual this season, but it has still held top tight ends out of the end zone this season (Will Dissly, not Greg Olsen, was the first one to hit them up last week). Jones' return will further take targets away.
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This call has absolutely nothing to do with Jefferson's play, although he wasn't great in Week 5. It has to do with the likelihood that the Vikings won't have to throw a ton against the Falcons ... and even if they did, it wouldn't promise anything for Jefferson. Case in point: Cousins slung the rock 39 times versus Seattle's rotten pass defense and aimed at Jefferson five times. The sad reality is Jefferson has five or fewer targets in four of five games, and 7 PPR/4 non-PPR points or less in three of those four. And as heinous as the Falcons are against the pass, they still have given up just four scores to wide receivers on the year.
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What the line wants us to believe: The Giants' close games against the Cowboys and Rams make them the better team. Part of me thinks the oddsmakers could have gotten away with more points for the Giants. Enough to make me think this is a sucker line? Maybe a little, but Washington just keeps getting blown out. They shouldn't get close to their 20.25 implied points, making it easier for the G-Men to pull away for their first win.
Would you believe that McKissic's 16 targets over the past two weeks (eight in each game) ranks second among running by a wide margin? He hasn't done a whole heck of a lot with them other than catch short passes, but in full PPR formats, that's led to some modest totals. The Giants have allowed a 78% catch rate to running backs on the season with just over 9.0 yards per catch. If you need 10 PPR points, McKissic should come through in a mc-pinch.
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Slayton's a fantastic receiving prospect stuck on a team with a quarterback struggling to play well behind a bad offensive line. The good news is that this week's matchup should help everyone involved. Washington's pass rush got Chase Young back last week but still had only one sack and ranks 29th in pass rush pressures since Week 2 (19th on the season). Washington's predominant zone coverage unit should help Jones, who is a more accurate passer against zone (65% completion rate, 7.1 yards per attempt) than man (58.3%, 4.9). That in turn should help Slayton turn in a good week, even against a Washington defense that has allowed just two receivers (DeAndre Hopkins, Robert Woods) to eclipse 15 PPR points this season.
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A yards per carry average of 3.1 suggests Freeman's as slow as ever, but there were several moments last week (and the week before) where Freeman ran with some burst through lanes that the Giants offensive line made (yes, really). His playing time has risen to 54% of the snaps each of the Giants' last two games and could keep moving north. He's got some hope thanks to a short-yardage role on top of a modest target share (10% over the past two weeks). Any running back with 15-touch potential warrants serious Fantasy consideration, particularly those running against a defense like Washington's that has allowed six touchdowns to running backs in its past three games.
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What the line wants us to believe: Philadelphia just isn't very good. They had to give the Eagles a bunch of points just to get some action on them. But it's interesting — the Ravens' wins have all been by at least two scores and the Eagles' losses have been by at least nine points. Carson Wentz is supposed to keep this game close? Playing behind that offensive line?! The Ravens seem like a safe pick, but they may have a tough time running the ball in the early going.
The biggest knock on Brown has nothing to do with Brown and everything to do with the lack of passing the Ravens tend to do. Despite Jackson's low pass-attempt total, Brown has seen a target share ranking from 21 to 38% every week, including a 31% share over Weeks 4 and 5. Maybe that simmers down now that Brown finally found the end zone last week, but a delightful matchup against an Eagles pass defense potentially without top cornerback Darius Slay (who wouldn't be able to keep up with Brown's speed anyway) keeps him well within starting range. Philly has allowed the sixth-most Fantasy points to wideouts on the year.
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Fulgham has been the beneficiary of being the only healthy, seemingly reliable receiver for the Eagles. He's playing the role of perimeter receiver that has gone to Alshon Jeffery in the past, a big-bodied target who plays with some quickness. Not surprisingly, it's a role that demands target volume in order to be useful for Fantasy. He had that last week, turning a jaw-dropping 13 throws from Carson Wentz into a 10-152-1 stat line. It would be a stunner for Fulgham to be even close to that productive this week versus a Ravens pass defense that's really only had trouble with speedy receivers like Terry McLaurin, Tyreek Hill and Mecole Hardman. Maybe he's OK as a PPR flex, but that's about it.
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Just like in Week 4, the Steelers didn't do anything particularly special to take Ertz away from the passing game. They did double-team him once in the end zone, but that's about it. What stood out to me, again, was that Ertz couldn't quite get open even against single coverage from a smaller defender, even strugging to get off press coverage a couple of times. The larger issue remains Carson Wentz feeling tons of pressure from opposing pass rushes, making it harder for him to throw accurately. And even if he has time, he's not a lock -- he and Ertz weren't on the same page on his bad-looking interception last week. A matchup against the Ravens, who held Travis Kelce to a 6-87-0 line three weeks ago, surely won't help. With just 11 targets in his past two games, try to avoid Ertz if you can.
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What the line wants us to believe: The Panthers' turn-around is more impressive than the Bears 4-1 record. I think the oddsmakers know that the public knows the Bears aren't as good as their record says. And yet, they enter this matchup with a healthier roster, especially on defense. So if no one's buying the Bears, then why are they just 1.5 point underdogs? The Bears DST is a sneaky good option this week.
Last week was Montgomery's second straight playing at least 80% of the snaps for the Bears. It was also his second-straight game with exactly 10 carries, none going further than 7 yards. His offensive line shoulders a lot of the blame for his poor rushing average, but an easier-than-expected matchup against the Panthers just might result in more efficient work. Carolina lost beefy run stuffer Kawann Short for the season and could also be without front-seven helpers Brian Burns and Yetur Gross-Matos. Helping Montgomery further is an uptick in targets (14 in two games since Tarik Cohen's torn ACL), providing an excellent floor in PPR. Carolina's run defense just got gauged by Todd Gurley last week and has been mostly bad for the better part of a calendar year. If Montgomery can't gain steam here, I'm not sure he can at any point.
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What the line wants us to believe: The Jaguars are toast. Meanwhile, does anyone remember how the Lions fell apart in their last game? They got pummeled! Now you're supposed to lay points with them on the road?! Yep ... that's exactly what they want you to think. Detroit's rested and the Jaguars are beat up on both sides of the ball. I also think both implied team totals (Jaguars 25.75, Lions 28.75) are too high.
It's a perfect storm for Peterson: He's rested and ready to play a beat-up Jaguars defense that's given up four total scores and 4.6 yards per run to rushers over its past three games. Before the bye, Peterson had played 44% and 59% of the Lions' snaps in Weeks 3 and 4, his two highest totals of the season. He also has more red-zone carries (12) than the other Lions running backs combined (seven). It would seem odd for the Lions coaching staff to sour on him in favor of D'Andre Swift (who's good but inexperienced) or Kerryon Johnson (whose playing time dwindled going into the bye). It's a risk, but it wouldn't be a shock to see Peterson score and even register 40 or 50 yards.
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What the line wants us to believe: The Jets can keep it close ... well, close for them. I honestly think they could have gone with minus-13.5 and had about even action. That suggests it's a sucker line to take the Dolphins, but I'm walking right toward it. The Jets will show signs of life once they send Adam Gase packing. Too bad the team opted to send Le'Veon Bell packing first.
Did we see Gaskin level up last week? Without Jordan Howard active, Gaskin handled short-yardage duties on top of otherwise leading the Dolphins run game. Hopefully that continues as Miami finds itself in a matchup it should dominate. The Jets have lost by at least nine points every week and simply don't have the firepower to compete with much of anyone around the league. That should result in a runaway win for the Fins. In two such victories, Gaskin has posted at least 21 touches (15-plus carries). He's had exactly 13 touches in three losses. Figure Gaskin helps the Dolphins overpower the Jets for their first home win.
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What the line wants us to believe: These teams are even. Really?! The undefeated Packers are on the same level as a Buccaneers team that lost to the Bears last week?! It tells me the oddsmakers really, really want your money on the Packers. Both teams are getting healthy on offense, but if the Buccaneers secondary plays as well as it has for most of the year (five passing touchdowns allowed in their past four), then maybe they are the right side to be on.
What choice do you have? Tonyan has five touchdowns over his past three games (at least one in each) including one in Week 2 when Davante Adams was active. He kind of has a little bit of George Kittle in his game — athletic and sure-handed for sure, and a little bit faster than you might think. Most importantly, he's got a red-hot Aaron Rodgers as his quarterback, and he seems to trust him. Tampa Bay's pass defense gave up a score to Jimmy Graham last week and 80 yards to Jared Cook back in Week 1. Tonyan should have a shot to help Fantasy managers as more than a TD-or-bust tight end.
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What the line wants us to believe: The Niners' blowout loss last week was an aberration. Maybe the truth is that they're expected to play their division rivals a lot closer. One thing's for sure: It's much easier for the public to take the Rams here than the 49ers. That absolutely feels like a sucker bet. I would imagine Raheem Mostert and the San Francisco defense will play better than anyone realizes.
The knee-jerk reaction to last week is to rank Darrell Henderson high among running backs, but the reality of Los Angeles' three-headed monster makes that dangerous. Henderson finally led the Rams rushers in snaps last week (43%) and was in the leader in touch share (50%) for the third time in four weeks. The bad news? He had 8 of 15 rushes go for 2 or fewer yards. That's icky. He profiles as their most explosive running back, capable of working any down or distance, but Cam Akers is sure to take more snaps than last week (19%) and Malcolm Brown is still their trusted running back on third downs (Henderson has four third down touches all year! Akers has none!). Henderson's upside puts him toward the bottom of the No. 2 running back list. By the way, the 49ers have yet to allow 100 total yards to a single rusher this season.
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What the line wants us to believe: The Chiefs loss is the anomaly, not the Bills loss. Truth is both losses were probably out-of-the-ordinary. Hard to see either team losing two straight, but it's easier for the public to ride the Chiefs. That's by design. Buffalo as a home underdog should be expected to rebound and keep things close. It'll help the Bills a lot if John Brown is back.
Hardman's been used more on short throws than deep bombs so far this year, helping him sport a 76.5% catch rate on an average target depth of 8.4 yards. If anything, Hardman's target volume should rise with Sammy Watkins out. That paired with the expected scoring bonanza everyone expects this game to have should yield some good results for Hardman. Remember when Buffalo's pass defense was feared? Not these days -- they've allowed nine scores through the air over their last four and should be ripe for more. Everything points to Hardman being helpful this week.
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What the line wants us to believe: Losing Dak Prescott is a big deal. I mean, of course it is, but enough to make the Cowboys a home underdog against a Cardinals team that has floundered offensively against everyone except the Jets lately? A Cardinals team without pass rusher Chandler Jones for the rest of the season? I could very easily see the Cowboys rally around Dalton and come up with a win.
Everything's coming up aces for Dalton. He's at the helm of the Cowboys' explosive offense for the rest of the season, and his first game is against a Cardinals defense that just lost top pass rusher Chandler Jones. Even with Jones on the field, Arizona allowed at least 22 Fantasy points to Jimmy Garoppolo, Matthew Stafford and Teddy Bridgewater (each had over 250 yards and two scores). Dalton's offensive line is sketchy, but that's something he's used to. Even if the Cowboys tone down their passing aggressiveness, Dalton should be efficient enough to help your lineup out. And if the game gets score-happy like the oddsmakers suggest, perhaps he'll have a monster performance of his own.
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