A mea culpa: Last week, I made the fateful choice to sit Miles Sanders in my Fantasy lineups. I feel like a colossal idiot, because I would have advanced in my favorite league had I started him (or if Giovani Bernard hadn't fumbled, or if Mark Andrews had another 10 yards, or a number of other things that didn't happen). Why did I bench him? He had a tough matchup, he hadn't been seeing a lot of touches, and he was playing with a rookie quarterback making his first start. It would have taken some (not a lot of) guts to start him in the face of these conditions, but the point is I had good reasons to doubt Sanders. When you set your lineups this week, make sure you have conviction in your decisions -- know WHY you're starting your guys.
More Week 15: Start 'Em & Sit 'Em | Starts & Sits, Sleepers & Risks | Start 'Em & Sit 'Em: QB | Start 'Em & Sit 'Em: QB | Start 'Em & Sit 'Em: RB | Waiver Wire | QB Preview | RB Preview | WR Preview | TE Preview | Trade Values | Cut List | Winners | Losers | Expert Rankings & Injury Updates
All lines from William Hill Sportsbook.
The line wants us to believe: The Chargers are hopeless. True, the Chargers find new and exciting ways to botch basic situational football every week, but the Raiders' only win in their past four games was a last-minute prayer against the winless Jets. They've also given up an average of 37.5 points per game in those four, and they actually have more turnovers this season (20) than the Chargers (16). Las Vegas is dealing with too many injuries on a short week along with a change at defensive coordinator. I'll take the points with the Chargers.
The past two weeks have shown the good and the bad with Agholor. Last week was good: a 5-100-1 stat line on nine targets. Two weeks ago? Very bad: 4-38-0 despite 11 targets. But there are valuable consistencies in those games in regard to his target share (20%-plus per game) and average depth of target (at least 14.6 yards). Those are clues that Agholor is a staple in the offense and should especially remain involved with deep-ball threat Henry Ruggs on the COVID-19 list. The Raiders have yielded multiple scores to receivers in each of their past two and at least one wide receiver score in eight straight.
| ||||||||||||||||||
The line wants us to believe: Denver will give Buffalo a fight. The oddsmakers know people will be all over the Bills after stomping the Steelers, which is why I think it's curious they're giving only six points. The Broncos offense was on fire last week but a lot of it had to do with the defense they played against. I could see Buffalo taking care of business -- their past four wins have been by 10-plus points and the Broncos past six losses have been by at least six.
Gordon's gotten the kind of workload we like, but last week it felt like Phillip Lindsay was interrupting his rhythm. Playing a season-low 46% of the snaps, Gordon had a nice run to start the game and another couple of nice plays late but was otherwise rotating just a little too much. He also didn't cash in on two short-yardage carries, leaving the Broncos to go with other options (Nick Vannett and Tim Patrick each had short-yardage scores). Lindsay also saw some work inside the 10. Maybe the shoulder injury he suffered hampered him more than we'd like to believe, but he did play well into the fourth quarter. Mind you, this was against one of the league's worst run defenses in Carolina. Now he'll see the Bills run defense, which has allowed just five 100-total-yard games to running backs all season, none since Week 10, and just one rushing score to a back in its past four games. Sean McDermott's crew got after the Steelers run game last week, and the 49ers the week before. I'd be surprised if Gordon put together a big stat line. At best he's a low-end No. 2 running back.
| ||||||||||||||||||
Getting under 50 yards in each of his past three games isn't great, but three touchdowns in his past two will sure get attention. Thing is, the Bills won't be able to focus solely on Patrick, not when Jerry Jeudy was ghosting defensive backs and KJ Hamler was speeding downfield last week. The Broncos should also be in position to throw a good amount -- the coaching staff should have plenty of confidence in Drew Lock after last week. Patrick's downside is a little scary because he's not getting as many targets as he did in the middle of the season, but in their past five games, the Bills have given up 11-plus non-PPR Fantasy points six times and touchdowns seven times to wide receivers. His red-zone prowess further solidifies him as one of the best flex options you could start.
| ||||||||||||||||||
The line wants us to believe: Carolina is just as "good" as Detroit, Philly and Chicago. The Packers have been favorites by about eight points in each of their past three, so it's a little surprising to see this line in the same place. Carolina is coming off a horrible defensive performance and shouldn't have much punch, and Green Bay's defense has done just well enough to hold opponents to around 25 points of late. The Packers should blow past their 30-point implied point total. That's the side to be on.
With at least 10 PPR points in all but two games this season, and 15-plus PPR points in 7 of 13 games, Anderson has earned must-start status in leagues where catches count. But even without D.J. Moore on the field last week, Anderson accumulated an average target depth of 6.8 yards per. He's been below an 11.0 aDOT in five of his past six games. As for red-zone targets, he had three last week -- without Moore playing -- and two in the prior five games combined ... and only two were actually end-zone targets and they weren't particularly catchable. With at least 34 pass attempts in four of their past five, the Panthers won't have issues with chucking the ball, a near-certainty with Aaron Rodgers set to bludgeon their defense. You could say he's overdue to score (zero red-zone touchdowns this year), but Anderson's usage suggests he'll need crazy-good volume to be helpful in non-PPR formats, especially since Moore (and Curtis Samuel) may command more looks in the end zone.
| ||||||||||||||||||
The line wants us to believe: The Cowboys' win last week was a fluke. Last week was a reminder that even Andy Dalton can have good games when he's not pressured a ton. San Francisco ranks well in quarterback hurries and pressures but has just 23 sacks to show for it. Backing either team makes me violently ill, but if the 49ers don't have Deebo Samuel, Raheem Mostert or George Kittle, then Dallas should be able to at least compete with them. I'll take the home dog.
It wasn't long after Andy Dalton got settled with the Cowboys that Lamb was on the same target pace as Amari Cooper. That's changed over the past three weeks. Cooper has turned 22 targets in the past three weeks into three games with a touchdown and at least 15 PPR points each. Lamb, meanwhile, has 18 targets with one 10-point PPR effort and no scores. Michael Gallup actually has the most targets (25) and has 10, 21 and (gulp) four PPR points in his past three. The 49ers pass defense typically plays well against inferior quarterbacks, and Dalton certainly qualifies. While Lamb is a risk in any format at this point, you may find some luck trying Gallup in DFS tournament lineups.
| ||||||||||||||||||
The line wants us to believe: Washington's no good. It's another disrespectful line for a Washington squad that's convincingly won four straight games. They've done it with defense more than anything else, and Seattle's run-first mentality seemingly would play right into their hands to keep the game close. Besides, Seattle's defense isn't as good as their last game against the Jets would suggest. The only catch is that Dwayne Haskins plays more recklessly than Alex Smith, so if he can't play a clean game then the door's open for Seattle to cover. I'll cautiously take the Football Team.
We learned following Week 10 that Lockett had a knee sprain that he's played through. Maybe it has contributed to his ugly track record of six or fewer non-PPR/11 or fewer PPR points in six of his past seven. Lockett has basically been collecting short-area targets for not just the past four games (only two deep targets) but the entire season (18 deep targets), managing a 124th-best 7.64-yard average depth of route. I reviewed a ton of his snaps, including all of his targets, and it definitely seems like his speed isn't what it once was. He's still been effective in the red zone (12 targets, nine catches, six scores), but his usage has been extremely inconsistent there as well (two red-zone tosses his way in the past four weeks). Tack on Pete Carroll's edict that the run game needs to be a big factor and D.K. Metcalf hogging looks from Russell Wilson, and Lockett feels much more like a touchdown-dependent receiver with 'Flex-pectations'.
| ||||||||||||||||||
Thomas has actually led the Team's receivers and tight ends in targets and receptions each of the past two weeks, a factoid that may make him an auto-start given the lack of quality options at the tight end position. It sure doesn't hurt that the Seahawks have given up three touchdowns to a tight end in their past four games. Don't make the mistake of thinking Thomas is an explosive player -- he's averaged short of 10.0 yards per catch in all but four games. But as a red-zone threat who is an easy check-down choice for Alex Smith to rely on, he should deliver a satisfactory total in PPR formats, if not all formats.
| ||||||||||||||||||
The line wants us to believe: This will be a close game. I think the oddsmakers could have gotten away with a Vikings minus-4 or minus-5 line here because there shouldn't be too much respect for the Bears even after their commanding win over the lowly Texans last week. By that logic, the oddsmakers are trying to goad us into taking the Vikings. Minnesota hasn't won a game by more than three points since Week 10 -- at Chicago. I do believe the Bears are playing better now than they were then, but I simply have a hard time backing Mitchell Trubisky in what amounts to an elimination game on the road. Yes, I think the line is a sucker bet, but no, I can't believe in the Bears without getting at least one more point. So Vikings it is.
The past two weeks encapsulate the joys and horrors of starting Trubisky in Fantasy football. Two games ago he took a magnificent home matchup against the lowly Lions and created 14 Fantasy points with one touchdown. Then last week he had an equally easy home matchup against the Texans and exploded for 30 Fantasy points and three touchdowns. What especially helped him last week were the 197 yards after catch his teammates put up, more than in any game they played in 2020 and way more than the 63 yards after catch they had versus Minnesota in Week 10. The Vikings defense isn't loaded with world-beaters but it does tend to do a nice job tackling (61 yards after catch against the Bucs last week, for instance). That tendency also shows up in their impressive track record versus opposing quarterbacks, holding five of the past six they've faced to under 20 Fantasy points each, including 19 for Tom Brady last week. No doubt, Trubisky has impressed with short, quick, high-volume passing in the past two weeks, but a road matchup against a disciplined defense might lead to underwhelming results.
| ||||||||||||||||||
The line wants us to believe: New England isn't as bad as they looked last Thursday. The Patriots are on the road for the third straight week and coming off an abysmal performance. But, the idea of Bill Belichick scheming against a rookie quarterback will get some folks to put money down on New England. I think Tagovailoa played solid (if not gutsy) football last week, and Brian Flores should be in a better spot to defend a Patriots offense that doesn't have many wrinkles to it. I'm going with the home team.
The Dolphins are decimated at running back and receiver, paving the way for Bowden to have a sizable role in the offense. We've already seen it -- last week he played 71% of the snaps and turned nine targets into a 7-82-0 stat line with a 2-yard rush (on a play where he wanted to throw!). He actually ran a number of different routes and was more than a short-area target (he had a 9.3 adot). He even ran pick-plays to help get other receivers open. The volume should be there for him against a good Patriots defense that may prefer Tua Tagovailoa check it down to Bowden rather than give up the big play. Obviously his value is much better in PPR, but he is serviceable as a low-end starting running back in any format if you're thin at the position.
| ||||||||||||||||||
The line wants us to believe: The Ravens will wipe the floor with the Jags. Given all the injuries and absences across the Ravens roster, my hunch is that John Harbaugh's focus is getting out of the game healthy, not by dominating the Jaguars. Gardner Minshew gives the Jacksonville offense a better chance of keeping up on the scoreboard, and the Ravens' deep secondary is suddenly depleted. Jacksonville won't win, but 13 points is too many to give them. They'll cover.
We're getting closer to a J.K. Dobbins breakout (or re-breakout). In his second game back after being on the COVID-19 list, Dobbins played 62% of the snaps for the Ravens, not only his third-highest mark of the season but the third-highest for any Ravens rusher in 2020. He also saw 59% of the running back touches, second-highest for him/any Ravens rusher in 2020. A matchup against the 1-12 Jaguars, who rank fifth in most Fantasy points allowed to running backs on the year, could be exactly the kind of dominating matchup where Dobbins breaks out as his fellow rookies have. There's risk -- Lamar Jackson has found his rushing mojo and Gus Edwards has been playing really well (albeit on less than 10 touches most weeks). But the Ravens run game should kick into high gear and afford Dobbins some good numbers. He tops the list of imperfect No. 2 running backs in Week 15.
| ||||||||||||||||||
Look, no one should ignore what Edwards has done in his past two games: 14 carries, 150 yards and two touchdowns ... and 10-plus non-PPR points per game. With seven carries in each of those past two, it's clear his workload is limited, but he and Dobbins both get some red-zone carries. Edwards also happens to be more efficient than Dobbins, but just doesn't get the same kind of playing time nor has the same explosiveness. But teams have averaged 26.0 running back carries per game against the Jaguars, and a running back has scored on the Jags in all but four games. Edwards is the best touchdown-or-bust rusher you could find.
| ||||||||||||||||||
The line wants us to believe: Atlanta can stay competitive with Tampa Bay. The Falcons defense actually played well for most of last week; it was Matt Ryan putting his team in bad spots that cost them the win. I'm actually at the point where trusting Ryan without Julio Jones is a no-go. Atlanta's only win since Week 9 was a butt kicking over a Raiders squad that constantly bumbled the game away. The Bucs should take care of business.
| ||||||||||||||||||
Throw out last week's Buccaneers game. They didn't have the ball for very long and Tom Brady attempted only 23 passes. The pace should be better for the Bucs in this matchup, especially if Tampa Bay is forced to go without Ronald Jones. Bruce Arians can talk all day about how Leonard Fournette would be a big part of the offense, but Brady should be more than comfortable taking the reins against a Falcons defense that's actually been much better against the run (three rush touchdowns by running backs allowed since Week 5) than the pass (11 touchdowns allowed since Week 5). Before last week, Godwin had at least 9 non-PPR/15 PPR points in three straight and Gronkowski had at least six targets in two of his previous three (and a touchdown in five of eight games). If you made it this far with either of these Bucs pass catchers, you should continue to ride them in Week 15.
| ||||||||||||||||||
Honestly, the only Falcons players you could conceivably start with any confidence are Calvin Ridley and, if he plays, Julio Jones. Ryan was somehow challenged by the Chargers defense last week, held to one touchdown with three interceptions as his offensive line continued to fail him. This is a perfect matchup for Todd Bowles' aggressive blitzing defense to get after Ryan, something they'll have raised confidence in doing if Jones doesn't play. Ryan hasn't scored more than 17 Fantasy points since Week 9 and has an embarrassingly weak track record in games without Jones.
| ||||||||||||||||||
The line wants us to believe: The Lions are one of the league's worst teams. That's true, obviously. But without Matthew Stafford, they figure to be pretty beatable on both sides of the ball. Tennessee has won three games this season by 12-plus points, including one last week against Jacksonville. I have a hard time believing either team will hit their projected point totals (20.25 for Detroit, 31.25 for Tennessee), but I also have a hard time believing the Lions will be competitive.
Think of Tannehill's floor as a game similar to last week's when he amassed 20 Fantasy points on only 24 pass attempts. There's a very real chance Derrick Henry rumbles all over the Lions' pathetic run defense (29th vs. the run) and doesn't leave much for Tannehill to do. Then again, Tannehill would benefit from A.J. Brown and Corey Davis, among others, making plays after the catch against this awful Lions secondary (27th vs. the pass). There's risk in trusting Tannehill to deliver, say, 25-plus Fantasy points, but the safe floor he provides keeps him in the starting conversation ahead of any other quarterback with noticeable downside (Deshaun Watson, Kirk Cousins, Ben Roethlisberger).
| ||||||||||||||||||
The line wants us to believe: The Texans will be competitive. This feels like slight overreaction to last week's games, but then again, the Texans defense is among the worst in football (not to mention on the road for the second straight week). Honestly, the line feels like they want you to take the Colts because they're only giving seven. I could see the Texans hanging around into the fourth quarter before Indianapolis puts in a big score to put the game away. Colts it is.
Coutee had a brutal stat line last week (under 10 PPR points even with a touchdown), but the silver lining was he got open a bunch against the Bears. Deshaun Watson was focused on other receivers and simply didn't see him. The hope is that Houston finds itself without a reliable run game and is forced to lean on Watson, who hopefully will recognize Coutee more often, especially after underwhelming performances from Chad Hansen and tight end Jordan Akins. The Colts, who Coutee broke out against two weeks ago, have allowed a receiver to score at least 14 non-PPR points in four straight games. Coutee is worth one more start as a flex, especially in PPR.
| ||||||||||||||||||
| ||||||||||||||||||
Rivers' passes might look ugly leaving his hand, but he's finding ways to move chains and score points. He's notched at least 21 Fantasy points in five straight matchups, including against the Texans in Week 13. Pittman has mastered the shallow cross route and should continue getting attention on in-breaking routes, especially in the red zone. One such play last week looked like a for-sure touchdown but the pass got tipped. Houston's defense was already beat up but safety Justin Reid is on the shelf for the rest of the season, and the unit as a whole gave up nearly 200 yards after the catch to the Bears last week. That's perfect for Pittman, who Rivers will throw to along with T.Y. Hilton for some easy numbers.
| ||||||||||||||||||
The line wants us to believe: The Cardinals' win last week was for real. The Cards played better on both sides of the ball, but the Giants' weak sauce offense had something to do with it. Not that Philadelphia has turned into a powerhouse -- their ways of moving the chains is pretty straight-forward at this point. The key here is that Philly's secondary lost three starters last week and two definitely won't play on Sunday. Kyler Murray's play was encouraging last week and the defense should have a semblance of an idea of how to limit Jalen Hurts. I like the Cardinals, especially since all the focus this week has been on the Eagles and how they beat the Saints.
Hurts looked every bit like a rookie making his first NFL start last week, running what appeared to be a simplified version of the Eagles offense with designed reads. The difference between Hurts and a bunch of other rookies is that he had no concerns whatsoever about running the ball, especially when his first read was covered or when the pressure was on. Arizona's had trouble containing running quarterbacks this year, giving up at least 35 yards to five straight signal-callers between Weeks 7-12. That will help Hurts. Arizona's also had trouble defending the pass, letting up at least 23 Fantasy points to five of the past seven enemy slingers it's seen. That's something Hurts could struggle to take advantage of because he's still in the early developmental stages of his career. Quarterbacks like Philip Rivers and Derek Carr seem like safer choices than Hurts, but I do think his matchup and rushing prowess give him an edge over Mitchell Trubisky and Gardner Minshew.
| ||||||||||||||||||
It was nice when Carson Wentz was playing and leaning on his tight ends as his security blankets. Hurts' security blanket is his feet, running way more often than scanning for his trusty tight end. Goedert's best play last week was when he basically shoved a defender, waited for Hurts to see him and then making a play after the catch. His six targets and 20% target share wasn't bad, but it was mostly on short tosses from Hurts where Goedert didn't have much room to pick up chunks of yardage. The Cardinals have become a tough matchup for tight ends, holding the position to just three scores all season and not letting up more than five non-PPR points in eight straight games.
| ||||||||||||||||||
The line wants us to believe: New York can stay within three scores. I almost wonder if the Rams could cover 21 points. The Jets have averaged 15.5 points per game in their past four -- two with 28 points against awful defenses and two with three points against good defenses. It's more likely they'll finish around 3, 7 or 10 points, and it's not that hard to imagine the Rams coming up with close to the 30.25 points their implied total suggests. Gang Green has been blown out by 18-plus points six times this year. This week will make seven.
Goff has one of the best possible matchups on the slate thanks to a Jets pass defense that's a) on the road for the second straight week and b) has been hit up for at least 22 Fantasy points by seven of the last eight quarterbacks they've faced. It should be an open invitation for Goff to go off, but there's a sense the Rams won't need to let Goff drop back and throw a ton unless, somehow, the Jets stay competitive. There are always circumstances that can help Goff pad his stats, like his receivers making big plays after the catch (the Jets are fourth in yards after catch allowed), but when he's attempted fewer than 35 passes this season he's delivered at least 20 Fantasy points just half the time, and when he's attempted fewer than 35 pass attempts over the course of his career he's had multiple touchdowns just 16 of 36 times. He's worth risking over waiver-grabs like Jalen Hurts and Mitchell Trubisky, and he's definitely DFS-worthy, but you shouldn't get cute with Goff and start him over anyone with significant upside.
| ||||||||||||||||||
The line wants us to believe: The Saints will keep it close. There's no doubt in my mind that the general public seeing the Chiefs giving just three points will cause an avalanche of money to come in on their side. It's probably by design. Getting three points with the Saints at home against anybody is typically a good thing. Getting it with Drew Brees back under center is a gift. The Saints, I believe, have a good chance to pull off the win.
The Chiefs gave Edwards-Helaire a big chance last week -- 84% of all running back carries and catches, 21 in total. Did he do enough to keep getting that kind of workload? Well, while he ran hard, fought through contact and made plays in the passing game, he averaged 3.1 yards per carry until he lost 11 yards on his final two rushes and wound up with 2.0 yards per tote. Now he'll get challenged on the road for the second straight week by a Saints defense coming off its worst game of the year. What would be more surprising: Edwards-Helaire comes through with a big game, or the Chiefs lessen his workload after a fairly disappointing performance. If you said the former, you're thinking like I am. At the very least we should hope for his receiving role to stay. He might rank as a No. 2 running back by default, but that's because he's one of a handful of runners with both serious upside and downside.
| ||||||||||||||||||
Before getting hurt, Brees registered at least 23 Fantasy points in four straight games (and five of six), all without Michael Thomas. Now he enters what should be a high-scoring showdown at home against the Chiefs. Kansas City's allowed 27-plus Fantasy points to enemy quarterbacks in four of its past five, though rushing totals helped prop those numbers up. Still, if there's one thing we've learned from the Saints, it's that they're a well-orchestrated offense. Brees' history is proof of that. If he's healthy enough to get back on the field, the hope is he knocks the rust off quickly and takes advantage of the Chiefs' middle-of-the-pack pass defense.
| ||||||||||||||||||
With Michael Thomas ruled out, Emmanuel Sanders figures to work as the Saints' most-targeted receiver against the Chiefs. It's a heck of a spot to be in. In four games earlier this year without Thomas (and with Brees), Sanders hit the 15-point mark in PPR three times and 10 points in non-PPR twice. The game has the second-highest point total on the slate, and while the Chiefs didn't give up a touchdown to a Dolphins receiver last week, they did yield six to wideouts in the four games prior. Sanders is a scoop-to-start option off waivers and should be a useful flex choice, especially in PPR leagues.
| ||||||||||||||||||
The line wants us to believe: The Giants can stay within a touchdown. This feels sucker-ish for sure -- why wouldn't the Browns get more points? -- but the Giants took a big step back last week, especially in the pass game. That should make things easy on a depleted Cleveland secondary. Cleveland may not have won last week, but they were very competitive. It's just more evidence that they've turned the corner and become a legit playoff team. I could see Nick Chubb leading the Browns offense, not Baker Mayfield.
Gallman's in a pretty good spot to bounce back. Cleveland's defense was on the field for 60 snaps on Monday and let up 5.0 yards per carry to the Ravens' running backs, surrendering three touchdowns in the process (it's even worse if we include Lamar Jackson's totals). That means the Browns have allowed five touchdowns (and 4.9 yards per carry) to running backs in their past three games. In no way are Gallman and the Giants on the same level as the Ravens' crew, but the Giants should be encouraged to running the football with their top back given the circumstance. Don't forget: Gallman came through for at least 10 non-PPR Fantasy points in six straight games before last week.
| ||||||||||||||||||
The line wants us to believe: Everything's fine in the Steel City. Things definitely are not fine with the Steelers offense, but there's nothing right with the Bengals on either side of the ball. This should be a game the Steelers defense rise up and dominate since the Bengals offense has scored exactly 27 points in the three-and-a-half games they've been without Joe Burrow. A 13-point win might be asking too much for a Steelers offense struggling like this one, but I'm far more comfortable doing anything than siding with Cincy.
Mike Tomlin's comment about Diontae Johnson responding "appropriately" to his benching and then being productive in the second half last week leads me to believe Johnson will get another chance to start this week against Cincinnati. In a way, the Steelers don't have a choice. The offensive line is a major liability, especially in the run game, so Ben Roethlisberger has to be the center of the Steelers offensive universe. That's not anything new to Pittsburgh, but Johnson's been his most-targeted receiver thanks to a recent stretch of six straight games with at least 10 targets (he even had seven last week when he was benched nearly 10 minutes in!). Cincinnati's secondary may try to mimic what the Bills did to the Steelers last week, but they're not as good. They've allowed at least one touchdown to a receiver in 10 of their past 12 games, and the Steelers receiving corps crushed the Bengals back in Week 10. I'd expect Johnson to have a shot at a good game, making him worth starting one more time assuming you don't have safer options.
| ||||||||||||||||||
So who should you start and sit this week? And which surprising quarterback could lead you to victory? Visit SportsLine now to get Week 15 rankings for every position, plus see which QB is going to come out of nowhere to crack the top 10, all from the model that out-performed experts big-time last season.
