Neither T.Y. Hilton or Mike Williams practiced on Friday, which means we aren't projecting them to play on Sunday. It also means receiver is looking more thin than it was at the start of the week. If you had Hilton, you may have made plans early in the week, but Williams (and a lot of the Chargers offense) was a surprise. While D.J. Chark and Mecole Hardman may have been added already, that doesn't mean we don't have options.
Paul Richardson and Trey Quinn could benefit from increased volume against one of the best matchups in Fantasy if Terry McLaurin, who also didn' practice Friday, is limited. But it's tough to count on that. Richardson has seen approximately 16% of the targets so far this season, and that might be enough against the Giants. In three weeks, six receivers have scored at least 12 Fantasy points against them and this game has a high over/under (49.5).
The Colts' and Chargers' other options don't offer much excitement. Dontrelle Inman would be the most exciting of the group because of the outstanding matchup against the Dolphins. I wouldn't expect as much pass volume for Indianapolis and the roles aren't clearly defined. If you can't bring yourself to trust Richardson or Inman, there are more options I've listed below.
Week 4 WR Preview
Who's Out
The following players are not being projected to play Week 4 at this time. Here's what it means:
Hilton re-aggravated his quad injury in Week 3, and early reports have not been optimistic. There isn't a clear winner here, but Parris Campbell and Deon Cain are the two guys with the best chance of capitalizing.
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Gabriel left Monday night with a concussion after a monster three-touchdown game. This could give Anthony Miller a chance to step up in a short week, but this is not a good matchup against the Vikings.
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Numbers to Know
- 47.1% - Terry McLaurin's share of Washington's air yards. If he's healthy he should have a monster game.
- 4.8 - Average yards of separation for Mecole Hardman. It's hard to trust his target share, but you can't deny his production.
- 21 - Targets for Sammy Watkins over the past two games. It's been frustrating that he's been outproduced by Hardman and Demarcus Robinson, but I'm going right back to Watkins in DFS.
- 45.9% - Combined target share for Larry Fitzgerald and Christian Kirk in Arizona. That's more consolidated than I expected and will lead to some boom weeks from both receivers if it continues.
- 231 - Air yards for D.J. Chark, tied for third in the NFL with Tyler Lockett behind Keenan Allen and Mike Evans.
- 27.8% - Drop rate for John Ross, the highest of any receiver with at least 20 targets this season.
Matchups that matter
The Giants are surrendering 38 Fantasy points per game to opposing receivers. If McLaurin is out, Richardson has a huge opportunity.
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The only other team to allow 38 Fantasy points to opposing receivers? The Giants' Week 4 opponent. This game has low-key shootout appeal.
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It was great to see Evans break out in Week 3, but I'm just a little bit concerned about him and Chris Godwin in Week 4. The Rams defense has been extremely stingy, giving up just 12.3 Fantasy points per game to receivers.
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The Patriots have been good at just about everything, including stopping receivers. No team has allowed fewer Fantasy points than the Patriots, and they excel at taking away the other team's No. 1 option.
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Waiver Wire Targets
For all the talk about Antonio Brown, Julian Edelman and Josh Gordon, it's Phillip Dorsett who has been the best wide receiver in New England. He's caught 92.9% of his targets and is the only Patriot with multiple touchdown receptions. That makes him very interesting as a flex when everyone is healthy, but if Julian Edelman misses Week 4, we'll be talking about Dorsett as a top 25 wide receiver.
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I have Richardson projected for six targets against the worst pass defense in the NFL. Even if McLaurin is 100%, that makes him someone you can plug in as a No. 3 receiver.
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If you assume the Patriots take John Brown away then Beasley could be in line for a ton of targets, especially if the Patriots build an early lead. He's really only someone I'd consider in PPR, but he should be a fine flex in that format.
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Tate only has one week left on his suspension, and when he returns he'll have Daniel Jones throwing him the football. After what Jones did in Week 3, that is very exciting. I'd consider Tate a No. 3 receiver in PPR once he returns, making him a nice bench stash if you don't have a Week 4 need.
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In Josh Rosen's first start, Williams saw 12 targets and nearly had a touchdown if not for a drop. His catch rate is bad, but it's also the best in the Dolphins receiving corps. This is a team that will be playing from behind for most of the season, so the volume should be there. The talent is too. We just need Williams to hold on to a few more balls.
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Johnson saw a boost in his target share in Mason Rudolph's first start and now looks like the favorite to be the No. 2 opposite JuJu-Smith-Schuster. You can't start him yet, but there's a chance people are running to the waiver wire to grab him ahead of his prime-time matchup against a Bengals defense allowing 9.1 yards per pass attempt.
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DFS Plays
I'm riding Allen one more week because he still isn't priced like his production from the first three weeks and he's facing the Dolphins in Week 4. I would assume he'll be the chalk this week, but in cash games I just don't care.
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Over the past two weeks, Lockett has the second most targets in football and he's still somehow catching 80% of his targets. In Week 4 he gets the Arizona Cardinals, and he's somehow below $7,000 on both sites.
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This is the only Chiefs receiver I currently plan on playing in Week 4. If Robinson and Hardman continue to outperform him with half as many targets, I'll take the L. You cannot pass up on double-digit targets from Patrick Mahomes at a sub-$7,000 price tag.
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Yes, the matchup is horrible. It's a tournament-only play. But Brown is still the No. 1 receiver on his team and he's a fantastic deep threat. I'll take that type of upside at this price tag and low ownership every day.
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Heath's Projections
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