Fantasy managers who drafted some George Kittle and Mark Andrews probably may have gotten off to a rocky start to the season. The pair of consensus top-five tight ends combined for just 33.2 Fantasy points the first two weeks of the season.
Week 3 was a small consolation for both, but that's only going to feel good if we get a repeat in Week 4. Because there's still plenty of reason for concern.
The first, and major, concern for both is target share. Kittle and Andrews were both projected to receive close to a 25% target share and either lead their team in targets or come very close to it. Instead, through three weeks, Kittle 19.8% target share has been dwarfed by Deebo Samuel's 33% share. Mark Andrews' 21% share is slightly better but he's actually behind both Marquise Brown and Sammy Watkins.
The second concern is that competition for both looks to be increasing. Brandon Aiyuk is finally fully healthy (or out of the doghouse), and played a full complement of snaps in Week 3. Rashod Bateman has been activated for return to practice off Injured Reserve for the Ravens. In past years these types of players didn't really impact Kittle and Andrews, but so far 2021 has been different.
The final problem is that neither has scored a touchdown. For Kittle, three games without a score is not that uncommon. He's never scored more than five touchdowns in a season. Andrews, on the other hand, relies heavily on touchdowns, as do most tight ends. This is the least of my concerns, but it will grow if they don't score in Week 4.
Ultimately, I'm not panicking if I have Kittle or Andrews. I'm certainly not selling high. But there are enough concerns that I'm not sure I'm buying low either unless it's really low.
Here's everything else you need to know about tight end in Week 4:
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Week 4 TE Preview
Who's Out
The following players are not being projected to play Week 4 at this time. Here's what it means:
Dan Arnold may be a stash, at least in deeper leagues.
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Everett is on the Covid-19 list. If he misses Sunday, Will Dissly enters the streaming discussion.
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Numbers to Know
- 11.1 -- Mark Andrews' 11.1 air yards per target is tops amongst tight ends with at least 10 targets.
- 7 -- A third of Mike Gesicki's 2021 targets came in the fourth quarter or overtime against the Raiders.
- 68% -- Dalton Schultz has played at least 68% of the snaps in every game this year. Blake Jarwin has yet to top 57%.
- 2 - Week 3 was Tyler Conklin's second career game with double-digit PPR Fantasy points. He's no sure thing moving forward.
- 96.3 -- Travis Kelce is averaging a career-best 96.3 yards per game. He's been worth every bit of that Round 1 price tag.
Matchups that matter
Waiver Wire Targets
Dalton Schultz has scored double-digit Fantasy points in two of three games this season and he's consistently playing more than Blake Jarwin. The Cowboys have produced a borderline No. 1 tight end each of the past two seasons, and it looks like Schultz could make it three in a row.
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Conklin actually projects better than Schultz this week, but I prefer Schultz because his role has been more consistent. It may simply be Conklin vs. K.J. Osborn each week for target share, but the Vikings have a much better history of targets going to their tight end as opposed to their No. 3 receiver. Conklin could be what we were hoping Irv Smith would be.
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Dissly is available pretty much everywhere and has flashed when he's received targets. He should see four or five at least if Everett is out Week 4.
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DFS Plays
The gap between Kelce and everyone else is really highlighted by weeks when Darren Waller is not on the main slate. I'd much rather save money somewhere else and pay up for Kelce's consistent excellence.
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The Chiefs have been miserable in virtually all regards. They're amongst the league's worst against the run and the pass. I like Goedert's touchdown odds and I expect more downfield usage with the Eagles chasing the Chiefs on the scoreboard.
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Heath's Projections
So who should you start and sit this week? And which surprising quarterback could lead you to victory? Visit SportsLine now to get Week 4 rankings for every position, plus see which QB is going to come out of nowhere to crack the top 10, all from the model that has out-performed experts big-time.
