Week 3 was a nightmare for some Fantasy managers -- specifically those who managed to acquire Christian McCaffrey in their drafts. We now turn the page to Week 4. There are glaring Week 4 examples of players you should start and sit. There are also examples of sleepers who could provide unexpected production and big names who could flop based on these Week 3 matchups. Every week we'll break down every game on the slate and pinpoint the players you need to know in every matchup.
The best part is that you get to have a say in who makes this story every week! Follow me on Twitter and look for my weekly #SSSB polls to help me choose who I analyze.
All lines from Caesars Sportsbook.
The line wants us to believe: Carolina is an overrated 3-0 team. It sure feels like the oddsmakers are trying to push you toward taking the Cowboys after convincing wins against the Chargers and Eagles. They could have gotten away with more points, especially since the Panthers will play without Christian McCaffrey. Carolina, like Dallas, has a better-than-expected defense, but they haven't been tested yet. This should be another solid win for the Cowboys, but maybe by six or seven.
Christian McCaffrey's replacement has very good speed and is an absolute threat out of the backfield to catch passes (even though he dropped two red-zone throws last week). But as a ball-carrier he hasn't usually gotten much more than what's blocked for him (2.37 yards after contact per attempt, 37th best among running backs), which is to say he's not a powerful runner. I'm expecting Hubbard to collect numbers through the air against a Cowboys team that's allowed an 83.9% catch rate to rushers with at least seven catches allowed to the position per game. That makes him a force in PPR leagues, but he should collect enough numbers to be useful in non-PPR too.
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Anderson's struggles can ultimately get traced back to one guy: Sam Darnold. He's simply not looking his way often, leaning more on D.J. Moore and the running backs through the season's first three weeks. He's also keeping his throws short -- only 9.4% of his pass attempts have gone 20-plus yards downfield and Anderson's average yards per target is 17.73. That number was 9.69 in 2020, a tell-tale sign he's not getting involved in the short game. What's weird is that the Panthers have two receivers with a higher average route depth (Moore and Brandon Zylstra) than Anderson, who is picking up 8.33 yards per route. The Panthers know they need to get him more involved, and in their first game without McCaffrey and tight end Dan Arnold, it would make sense he sees more than the 3.7 targets per game. But nothing has made sense this year when it comes to Anderson. You're better off with him on your bench.
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Schultz's basic stats are enough to consider him as a streaming option, though it's never ideal to use a non-obvious tight end coming off a big game. The plusses are that he's third on the Cowboys in targets with 15 and has at least six catches in two of three games. He's running routes on 88.6% of his pass snaps, which means he's barely blocking, and the Panthers pass defense really hasn't been tested by tight ends. The minuses are that he's clearly third in the Cowboys pecking order, Dallas' offense seems to be gravitating toward being more balanced, and Schultz is probably more of a low-ceiling PPR play than anything else. If you're streaming, then Schultz is okay. Otherwise leave him on the bench.
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The line wants us to believe:
Through three games, Gaskin has played one snap inside the 10 yard line. Malcolm Brown has played six of a possible seven with three direct-snap carries and zero touchdowns. Gaskin is also sharing the passing downs work, including the 2:00 offense, with Brown and Salvon Ahmed. In total, he's played just 56% of the snaps when it was expected he would have a much bigger share. By any metric, Gaskin is superior to his teammates as a rusher and is competitive as a receiver. You would think the Dolphins coaches would notice, but they appear to be deep-rooted in using multiple backs to keep everyone fresh. No one should start Gaskin hoping for a role change to happen unless there's a report that says it's coming, or after it actually happens. It's too bad because the Colts rank in the bottom-12 in rush yards allowed before contact and after contact and also rank tied for fourth in missed tackles on runs with 19. If we were sure Gaskin would dominate touches and sniff the goal line, he'd be a must-start. Until that day comes, Gaskin is a high-floor flex play at best. Maybe he'll get you 11 PPR points.
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It's clear Waddle is a short-area slot type of receiver for Miami. Of his 121 routes run this year, only 17 have gone further than 10 yards downfield and he's seen two targets on them (no catches). So volume is going to have to rule the day for Waddle, and it's what's absolutely made him valuable in PPR leagues. The Colts' zone-heavy defense has yielded some real good numbers to slot receivers already this year. Between that and Jacoby Brissett's love of checking down to Waddle (13 targets last week, 12 in regulation!), he's an easy start in PPR formats. It's those non-PPR leagues where he's much riskier since he's not creating many explosive plays.
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How can you sit a guy who's had 12 targets each of the past two weeks? Honestly, he should have scored last week if not for a slightly off-target throw from Carson Wentz. Pittman remains a big target without much YAC ability, but the real weakness in his game is his quarterback. Wentz didn't look mobile last week and the Colts offensive line has allowed the second-highest pressure rate in the league (36.2%). The Dolphins aren't known as a pressure-heavy squad but they're certain to dial up some heat on Wentz and they definitely have the cornerbacks to compete with Pittman. There's some downside to Pittman this week even if he picks up 10 targets. Don't be disappointed if he's right around where he was in Week 3 (12 PPR points).
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The line wants us to believe: Week 3 was an aberration for the Bears. The public has watched the Lions play three competitive games while the Bears were smashed in Weeks 1 and 3. But I'm not sure the Lions have the kind of defense that can mangle the Bears quarterbacks like others before them. Chicago found a way to bounce back in Week 2, the hunch is they'll do it again.
Robinson looks the same as ever -- quick in and out of his breaks with good footwork and plenty of physicality. The issue is that the Bears' woes at O-line and quarterback have cost him opportunities: Through three games he has 20 targets and 10 catches with eight uncatchable throws. Last year through his first three games he had 31 targets and 18 catches with 13 uncatchable throws. Statistically, the Lions rank 13th-best in Fantasy points allowed to receivers, but they'd be much lower if Marquise Brown didn't come down with a case of the dropsies last week. Chicago's coaching staff doesn't deserve any credit but they'd be dumber than a bowling ball to not get Robinson more involved in the quick pass game against Detroit's zone-heavy and depleted defense. Expectations might be down, but you should still start him as a WR2.
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Williams has had at least 10 touches per game with 14-plus in two of three. He also has one more red-zone rushing score than D'Andre Swift. The Lions are doing a good job of running the ball, currently ranked fifth in the league at 2.33 yards before contact per carry. That obviously benefits both backs but Williams is averaging 3.0 yards after contact per carry (14th best among running backs). Detroit won't back down even against a Chicago defense that will undoubtedly sell out to stop the run after getting gashed last week. Even if it happens, Williams is a candidate to snare some passes. He's probably more of a low-end No. 2 rusher for desperate Fantasy managers than a flex, but there is some appeal.
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The line wants us to believe: The Saints are capable of blowing another team out. I know the New Orleans defense is good and the Giants lost their top receiver and top run-stopping linebacker, but I cannot feel comfortable laying eight points with a Saints offense that hasn't been real consistent. New York has just six losses under Joe Judge (out of 13) by nine or more points. My gut tells me the Giants keep it close by the end.
Logic would suggest Golladay would rack up targets with the Giants missing Sterling Shepard and Darius Slayton. But in 21 pass attempts last week without those receivers, Daniel Jones targeted Golladay just twice. The film shows Golladay moving well and mostly running slants and comeback routes in the intermediate range. Against a zone-heavy defense, it could lead to a big day. But New Orleans plays man coverage at the sixth-highest rate and has done well against bigger receivers like Davante Adams and Robby Anderson while pressuring the quarterback.
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The line wants us to believe: Buffalo's dominance on both sides of the ball is just getting started. The Texans have played hard through three weeks, but I have a hard time believing they'll have a chance at scoring even 14 points (their implied point total is a shade higher at 15.5). Can the Bills hit over 30 points? We've seen it countless times including the last two weeks. The only catch is that this is a possible trap game for the Bills because they play the Chiefs next week. I just doubt the Texans can capitalize.
In their past two games, both blowouts (like Week 4 should be), the Bills ran it with their running backs on a third of their plays (47 of 141). They just don't care about being balanced. That being said, a Bills back has found at least 16 touches in each game. Nothing to sneeze at. Moss has seen more playing time and touches where they matter -- near the goal line. He has more red-zone touches (10 to eight), red-zone touchdowns (two to zero) and snaps inside the 5 (five to four) in two games than Singletary has in three. There's another bonus with Moss: He's dominated fourth-quarter snaps in those blowout wins (54% to 35%) and has seven touches to Singletary's three. If the game plays out as expected, Singletary will play more in the first three quarters but share valuable red-zone touches. By the time the game ends, Moss has the better chance to lead the backfield in touches and end-zone trips. Breakaway runs aren't his thing, but you'll start Moss as a low-end No. 2 running back on the hope he scores.
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The line wants us to believe: The Eagles aren't as bad as they've been the past two weeks. I'm not sure the betting public believes that, and it feels like the oddsmakers are counting on exactly that. No doubt they could have gotten away with as many as nine points as the Chiefs are in a good bounce-back spot against a beat-up and not-so-well-coached Eagles team. I can't help but fall for the trap here as Patrick Mahomes should rebound; the Chiefs as a whole have scored at least 32 points in each of four games after Mahomes had multiple interceptions. I don't think the Eagles can get past 24.
Throw out last week. Flush it, as Jalen Hurts might say. Nick Sirianni and the Eagles know they should have run the ball more; typically coaches overcompensate for not running it enough and implement more runs the following week. Sanders had 14-plus touches in Weeks 1 and 2 and should be in that range against the Chiefs. The worry is if Sanders is getting hit soon after the handoff because his depleted O-line can't block for him, then he's gonna stink. And the Eagles have run just 16 red-zone snaps this season of which Sanders has played six with one carry and one catch. So if he's not in on many short-yardage plays and may max out at 15 touches between the 20s, just how efficient can he actually be? Start him with the expectation of 80 total yards.
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Though Smith didn't get many targets for the second week in a row, he did show consistent separation in his routes regardless of who covered him. Truthfully, all of Smith's Fantasy woes are tied to Jalen Hurts, who is just off a little bit on several targets including several deep throws this season. We know the Eagles figure to throw a lot against the Chiefs and that Kansas City has allowed the Ravens and Chargers' top two receivers to total 329 yards and four touchdowns over the past two weeks. There's a definite boom-bust feel to Smith in Fantasy Football, but at least the matchup is favorable. That keeps him in the flex conversation.
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The line wants us to believe: The Titans aren't good enough to blow out the Jets. The oddsmakers are literally begging you to take the Titans. Why else would they not be favored by 10-plus points against a completely undermanned Jets team? This is where I'm supposed to explain how the Jets will keep it close, but I can't think of a way, even with a mobile quarterback and against a below-average Titans defense. They've scored 20 points in 12 quarters! I guess I'm getting trapped by taking Tennessee.
After yielding four touchdowns in Week 1 and two in Week 2 to wide receivers, the Titans defense rallied to keep Indy's wideouts out of the end zone and combined to 108 yards. They did it by playing a lot of man coverage and harassing Carson Wentz, a plan that should work out against Zach Wilson and the Jets. Gang Green has run a league-low nine plays in the red zone with only two pass attempts (one for a touchdown to Corey Davis in Week 1). Their own futility will make any defense look good and thus cost Corey Davis numbers, but it doesn't help when he loses contested-catch targets 50-plus yards downfield like he did last week. Even though the targets should be there for Davis, the only reason to go with him in a Fantasy lineup is on the hope Wilson has time to find him and that he exacts some revenge against his old team.
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The line wants us to believe: The Falcons will keep it close for the second week in a row. I can't say the Football Team is poorly coached, but I can say they were out of gas last week. This is a terrific bounce-back spot for them versus a Falcons offense that hasn't been imaginative at all and a defense that hung tough against a beat-up Giants offense in Week 3. I doubt many people will race to put their bucks on the Falcons, so maybe the line is a little fishy in that regard, but I think Washington steps up in a close game.
Pitts is running plenty of intermediate routes at less than ideal speed and Matt Ryan is running out of time to throw his way on a consistent basis. It makes it hard for the two to hook up, especially since Ryan has turned into Alex Smith 2.0 and checks it down as soon as he sees heavy pass coverage. That's why his target share is at 14.3% and not as high as we had hoped. Washington has allowed the most Fantasy points to quarterbacks through three games, but it has to do with Josh Allen's five-score game last week and Daniel Jones' 95 yards rushing and a rush score two weeks ago. Ryan doesn't profile like those guys at all, and it's simply a matter of time before Washington's pass rush (13th in pressure rate) really comes alive. The Falcons have allowed a quarterback pressure on 29.7% of their plays, tied for eighth-most in the league. Until Ryan gets more time to throw or Pitts runs shorter routes, expect his numbers to remain the same.
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Both Davis and Patterson rank in the top-6 among running backs in targets and top-7 in receptions. But it's Patterson who's done more with them, averaging 11.77 yards per catch and 11.5 yards after the catch per reception. Patterson has also seen more red-zone touches than Davis even though Davis has played more snaps both inside the 20 and five yards and closer. He's more explosive, and the Falcons coaching staff may have noticed as his playing time rose to 42% last week while Davis' slid to 60%. Matt Ryan's ultra-conservative passing has led to lots of targets for these two, and it'll end up being a test for Washington, who has been good against opposing running backs through the air but the Team has seen the fewest targets to running backs in the league. Patterson's upside makes him the best option of the two, but both should be started in PPR.
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The line wants us to believe: The Cardinals can keep it close. That's something Arizona hasn't done in their past four meetings with the Rams, all with Kyler Murray. They've lost all four by at least seven points. Moreover, the Rams have done a great job containing Murray on the ground in the series. It feels like the Rams have too much of an edge on both sides of the ball, especially against the Cardinals' pass defense.
Nothing is wrong with Woods playing time or his average route depth (it's higher than Cooper Kupp's!) or anything like that. Three drops haven't helped, but the truth is he's starting off slowly for the third consecutive year. In 2019 and 2020 he recorded one or zero receiving scores in his first three games with under 15 catches and under 200 yards. Same thing is happening here. In fact, Woods can be seen setting picks for Kupp and playing decoy for other teammates instead of shaking free on in-breaking routes. It's almost as if this is done by design. Maybe it is?! Fantasy managers should stay the course with Woods, even if it means lowering expectations for now. The Cardinals don't have a shut-down secondary as evidenced by their Week 2 showing against the Vikings, and the Rams have consistently found ways to beat them, if not post 31-plus points in the process. Woods has delivered at least 18 PPR points in four of his past five against Arizona.
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Expect the Cardinals to pass it plenty against the Rams heavy zone defense that's always OK with allowing short gains but not big plays. Arizona's passing game is predicated on connecting on short and intermediate throws, so there's room for multiple receivers to get good yardage. Arizona's done a nice job spreading targets around to all of their receivers -- none have more than eight targets in a single game and each has at least 10 PPR points in two games. Kirk's upside is dinged by playing in the slot so frequently, so he might end up seeing Jalen Ramsey in coverage the most. He's still the one I'd take the chance on among these three because of his explosiveness (compared to Green) and experience and snaps (compared to Moore).
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The line wants us to believe: Seattle's defense is really that bad. The 49ers found a way to score 28 points last week without a reliable run game, which was impressive. The 49ers' run defense isn't bad, but the secondary has some serious concerns that the Seahawks will be sure to test. The larger issue is that Seattle has been out-schemed the past two weeks and out-scored in their last two second-halves. For a guru like Kyle Shanahan, it's the right setup for him to take advantage.
After playing 86% of the snaps last week and improving to a 15% target share last week, it's safe to assume Aiyuk is back in the good graces of the 49ers coaching staff. That's even the case after he dropped a touchdown on one of his three end-zone targets (he did catch one of them). Seattle not only allowed two scores to wideouts in Weeks 1 and 3 but should have given up a six-yard touchdown to Julio Jones on top of the 199 yards they did actually yield in Week 2. He'd be a must-start if his target share were greater but there's a pretty decent track record of Aiyuk not seeing a ton of targets when George Kittle is on the field, and he should be a much bigger threat for the Niners than Aiyuk.
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Except when rushing lanes were obvious, Sermon ran tentatively. That's not uncommon for rookies and typically makes them slower until they're used to the speed of the game. Sermon also has played on just two third downs (both third-and-1) and leaves plenty to be desired as a pass blocker. If the 49ers don't add another running back to their mix, then Sermon might still work as a part-time early-downs running back and concede some of that work and pretty much all of the passing downs to Kyle Juszczyk (who isn't a bad desperation PPR choice). No one's allowed more Fantasy points to running backs than the Seahawks, but it's a dicey risk to go with Sermon -- he'll have to score again in order to be helpful.
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The line wants us to believe: Denver is for real. The Broncos are 3-0 thanks to wins over the winless Giants, Jaguars and Jets. The Ravens are a real test, but they're also a team that has been stuck in close games every week. Count on the Broncos defense to contain Lamar Jackson as best as it can to help give the offense a chance to score. The oddsmakers want you to take the Ravens -- this is one that should be easy enough to go the other way.
Yes, last week's drops were painful to watch. And yes, the Broncos pass defense is spectacular. But Brown still gets plenty of separation from whomever is covering him (3.6 yards on average) and is still drawing plenty of quality targets from Lamar Jackson. Denver allowed the top target-getter from the Giants (Sterling Shepard) and Jaguars (Marvin Jones) to score on them. Brown leads the Ravens with 23 targets and should be counted on for his gaudy Fantasy upside regardless of format.
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The line wants us to believe: The Steelers can keep it to one score. After getting blown out at home by the Bengals last week, how in the world could anyone confidently take the Steelers here? That's what the oddsmakers want you to think! Pittsburgh's defense will get a big boost with T.J. Watt back and their receivers (mostly) healthy. Pittsburgh might not win, but they'll indeed keep it within one score.
With Chase Claypool out, Smith-Schuster re-emerges as a terrific volume-based Fantasy choice. We already know by his 60% snaps in the slot and his 4.0-yard average route depth that he's pretty much a bail-out target for Ben Roethlisberger when he sees pressure. Knowing defenses will pressure him behind his weak O-line quickly, Roethlisberger has the third-fastest snap-to-throw time in the league at 2.15 seconds. If he's getting rid of the ball quickly, it's not traveling very far. Green Bay has stuck with heavy zone principles, ranking top-12 in zone coverages called. That further helps Smith-Schuster as a close target. He should see in the neighborhood of 10 targets.
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The line wants us to believe: Bill Belichick will have an answer for Tom Brady. There's no other explanation for this line being as low as it is. The whole universe will put their coins on Brady knowing how well he's played and how stinky the Patriots have been -- and the oddsmakers are counting on it. That's the side they want us on. Believing Belichick will devise a way to stymie Brady isn't hard -- it's believing Mac Jones and the Patriots offense will find a way to score three touchdowns that's impossible. New England has yet to score more than two offensive touchdowns in a game this season.
While I'm certain the Patriots would love to get Harris going, the reality is that their offensive line isn't quite good enough to hang with the Buccaneers front seven. Additionally, the Patriots love to use multiple running backs and even opted to roll out Brandon Bolden as their passing downs back following the injury to James White early in Week 3. If Harris can't take Bolden off the field in passing downs then clearly the coaches don't trust him in passing situations. This feels like a game the Patriots might keep close, but not with their run game. The Bucs are holding opposing backs to 3.2 yards per carry.
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One of the effects of James White's absence last week was an uptick in targets for Jakobi Meyers. PPR Fantasy managers finally caught a whiff of Meyers' upside when he came through for 94 yards on nine receptions (a 27% target share) as the Patriots played from behind and attempted 51 throws. The Patriots are very familiar with the general scheme of the Buccaneers pass defense thanks to Todd Bowles' years as the Jets head coach. That should help Meyers quite a bit.
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The line wants us to believe: The Raiders are overrated. Maybe Las Vegas is overrated (the team, not the city!), but they're finding ways to stay in games and win. Teams like that are dangerous, especially against mistake-prone teams like the Chargers who have lost over 200 yards of passing and five touchdowns to drops and penalties through three games. Derek Carr has been on an absolute roll and should test what's been a pretty good L.A. secondary. It's a fair line but one that the Raiders should cover.
Carr has over 375 yards and two touchdowns in each game this year, and he's posted at least 300 yards and multiple scores in each of the last seven games he's finished including a matchup versus the Chargers last December. No doubt he's been helped by a couple of overtime games in 2021, but last week he managed to accomplish the feat even with a sustainable running game. It remains to be seen if the Raiders can keep their run game effective, but it might not matter since Carr figures to be in position to uncork over 35 passes again in what should be a high-scoring game. Any non-obvious Fantasy quarterback except for Kirk Cousins should be benched in favor of Carr.
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The line wants us to believe: The Jaguars are incapable of competing. The oddsmakers have probably realized no one will take the Jaguars unless given a ton of points. Not that the Bengals have a positive public perception, but a 14-point win at Pittsburgh will go a long way. The Bengals' defense isn't that terrible, and of the six wins the Bengals have with Zac Taylor, four have been by eight-plus points. The short week should help Joe Mixon revive his numbers and thus pace the Bengals to a lopsided win.
Jones is coming off a season-low 12 PPR points against the Cardinals, but that's about the only bad stat you'll read on him. At 23.7%, he's dominating target share for the Jaguars. That's happening because of the timing he's consistently had with Trevor Lawrence, and because he's a short- and mid-range target that Lawrence can actually find before he gets walloped by the opposing pass rush. Jones has four red-zone targets; no one else on Jacksonville has more than one. I'm hoping for all these trends to remain in place in what should be a pass-friendly game script.
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Chark is second on the Jaguars in targets (22) but tied for fourth in receptions (seven). He's getting open downfield with his speed and sometimes with crafty footwork, but defenses are pressuring Lawrence heavily through three games. When that happens, Lawrence melts down (41.7% completion rate, 4.22 yards per attempt). So he's been getting rid of the ball quickly and not having the time or inclination to connect with Chark. That could change here as the Bengals pressure the quarterback at the fifth-lowest rate in the league. He'll be a popular choice in single-game DFS lineups but he could also be worth the risk of starting in deeper three-receiver leagues.
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It's getting harder to find quality running backs to start each week, so running away from Robinson seems silly. The Jaguars have definitely recognized how important he can be, giving him a season-high 21 touches (15 carries) last week. Robinson has let to fall below 4.3 yards per run in a game this year and had 66 yards and a score on one drive last Sunday. No doubt he'll be the one to test a Bengals' run defense that's allowed over 100 total yards to a back in two of three games. I'm banking on at least 15 more touches including a decent dose through the air.
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The Jaguars have played man coverage at the eighth-highest rate in the league so far. If they keep it up against Boyd, they'll struggle as Joe Burrow clearly hasn't had an issue targeting Boyd (he leads the team) and Boyd proved last week he can still be dangerous after the catch after his pinball-style run after-the-catch for a touchdown. Boyd's catch rate has been the same regardless of coverage but is understandably more controlled against zone defenses than man (1.6 fewer yards per catch and 3.24 fewer yards after catch per reception). I'm banking on Boyd's target share remaining strong and a few big plays against man defense to help him post a decent PPR number.
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