Welcome to the week of the high-end flex running back. Looking at the projections at the bottom of this article, you'll see more than a dozen guys I have a really hard time differentiating between J.K. Dobbins at RB20 and Zonovan Knight at RB34.
Some of these guys, like D'Onta Foreman, were fantastic last week, but I don't expect them to repeat. Others, like Brian Robinson, were miserable in Week 16, but circumstances are lining up much better for them in Week 17. And two of them, Zack Moss and Hassan Haskins were widely available on the waiver wire at the beginning of the week. As Chris Towers said on our Thursday stream, you're basically playing touchdown roulette with this class of running back. They're all likely to live in the six-to-10 point range without a score, but a touchdown could make them a low-end No. 2 running back.
One guy towards the top of this list who isn't discussed in the waiver section because he's just about the threshold is Jamey Eisenberg's Start of the Week, Tyler Allgeier. Allgeier is coming off of his best game of the season, and if it wasn't for the fact that his usage in the passing game had been so sporadic, he'd be above everyone on this list. Allgeier has 213 rushing yards in his last two outings and is a must-start in non-PPR. But before last week's four-catch outburst he had two targets over his past four games. In full PPR, that puts him squarely in this group, just towards the top. Needless to say, if he's available on your waiver wire he should be a top priority.
Now let's get to the rest of the Week 17 RB Preview:
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Malik Davis could approach RB2 territory in a blowout win over the Titans.
RB Preview
Numbers to know
75% -- Cam Akers has played at least 75% of the snaps in each of the past two weeks. It's the first time he's hit that mark in back-to-back weeks.
4 -- Rhamondre Stevenson has just four catches for -1 yard in his past two games.
22 -- Tyler Allgeier saw a career-high 22 touches in Week 16. He's taking this backfield over.
9 -- Najee Harris saw a season-high nine targets against the Raiders. He had five targets in his previous four games combined.
8 -- D'Onta Foreman has eight games with more than 100 yards rushing in the past two seasons.. Only Derrick Henry, Jonathan Taylor, and Nick Chubb have more.
In Week 17, Moss faces the only defense that has allowed more yards per carry than his Week 16 opponent. That matchup against the Giants, combined with Moss's 69% snap share in Week 16, makes him a high-end flex in full PPR and a borderline No. 2 in non-PPR.
With Derrick Henry out, we expect Haskins to see 15-plus carries for the Titans and he'll likely catch a couple of passes as well. He's caught two passes in each of the Titans' past two games and has produced 50 yards on his 11 rush attempts this season. He's right there with Zack Moss as a high-end flex in full PPR.
The Cowboys like Davis' talent and could give him a lot of work in the second half against a Titans defense resting most of their good players. He has a higher ceiling than Zack Moss or Hassas Haskins if everything goes right, but there is not much floor if the game stays competitive. We do not expect the game to stay competitive.
McCaffrey has a four-point edge on every other running back in this week's projections. The fact that he's coming off a disappointing outing doesn't bother me at all. Maybe he won't be complete chalk. Before his Week 16 "letdown," he'd compiled 437 total yards and four touchdowns in Brock Purdy's first three outings.
I don't really buy that Jacksonville will rest anyone this week because they have a viable path to the wild card if they win this week and the Dolphins lose out. Etienne's breakout campaign has been marred by a lack of touchdowns, but the Texans have surrendered 21, the most in the NFL, to running backs this season. This could be a top-five week for the second-year running back.
