More Week 17: Waiver Wire — Rankings — Start 'Em and Sit 'Em — Cheat Sheet
The Lineup Cheat Sheet combines Fantasy analysis and game-flow predictions with a confidence scale to give you a definitive answer on who to start in your leagues.
The higher the number next to a player's name, the more confident you should be to start him. If a player isn't listed, don't start him.
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If you're still unsure, just send a note on Twitter (@daverichard) and I'll give it a look, time permitting.
Redskins at Giants
| Redskins | | Giants | |
| Kirk Cousins | (7.8) | Eli Manning | (3.5) |
| Samaje Perine | (6.6) | Davis Webb | (1.0) |
| Kapri Bibbs | (4.95) | Wayne Gallman | (5.9) |
| Jamison Crowder | (8.5) | Orleans Darkwa | (3.5) |
| Josh Doctson | (7.2) | Roger Lewis | (3.1) |
| Vernon Davis | (5.0) | Giants DST | (4.8) |
| Redskins DST | (9.0) | | |
Sneaky Sleeper
Whether it was an order from coach Jay Gruden or simply a matter of Kirk Cousins finding him open play after play, Doctson was afforded 13 targets last week (six deep balls). It was particularly startling since they came in a game that wasn't close or had the Skins playing from behind. Doctson caught just two of them, but one was for a 48-yard touchdown. He'll find an easier matchup this week against a banged-up Giants secondary that's allowed 13.9 yards per grab and eight touchdowns to receivers over its last five (including two to the Redskins and one to Doctson in Week 12). Look for Cousins to lock on to Doctson when he's lined up against cornerback Brandon Dixon, who has allowed a 68 percent completion rate and three touchdowns in his last four games.
Jets at Patriots
| Jets | | Patriots | |
| Bryce Petty | (2.8) | Tom Brady | (8.7) |
| Bilal Powell | (6.5) | Dion Lewis | (9.2) |
| Matt Forte | (3.4) | James White | (6.2) |
| Robby Anderson | (6.4) | Brandin Cooks | (8.6) |
| Jermaine Kearse | (4.2) | Rob Gronkowski | (9.2) |
| Austin Seferian-Jenkins | (3.0) | Patriots DST | (9.1) |
| Jets DST | (3.4) | | |
Risky Starter
It sure seems like the Jets (finally) made a choice at running back, going with Powell as their lead guy last week. But that was in a game the Jets kept close, thus giving their run game more opportunities. The reality is that Powell played about as many snaps as Forte with no discernible difference between roles. If anything, Powell's workload could tip off the Patriots as to how the Jets will call plays since he had carries on 19 of 27 snaps. Besides, the Jets figure to play from behind and the Pats run defense has been pretty good.
Bears at Vikings
| Bears | | Vikings | |
| Mitchell Trubisky | (3.6) | Case Keenum | (7.3) |
| Jordan Howard | (6.7) | Latavius Murray | (7.5) |
| Tarik Cohen | (4.4) | Jerick McKinnon | (5.9) |
| Kendall Wright | (5.3) | Adam Thielen | (8.8) |
| Bears DST | (4.0) | Stefon Diggs | (7.7) |
| | | Kyle Rudolph | (6.8) |
| | | Vikings DST | (9.5) |
Start Him
Last week, Murray had the game script we expected and a season-high in carries (21). He just didn't score on any of his four carries from inside the Packers 10. It left Fantasy owners feeling high and dry, but the same kind of opportunities figure to be ahead in Sunday's game against Chicago. The Bears offense won't be able to move the chains against Minnesota, leaving ample touches for Murray. Chicago hasn't allowed a score to a running back in five straight, but the hunch is that Murray gets his chances to get in the end zone.
Packers at Lions
| Packers | | Lions | |
| Brett Hundley | (2.6) | Matthew Stafford | (8.1) |
| Jamaal Williams | (8.1) | Theo Riddick | (5.8) |
| Randall Cobb | (5.1) | Ameer Abdullah | (3.75) |
| Geronimo Allison | (2.5) | Marvin Jones | (9.2) |
| Packers DST | (4.6) | Golden Tate | (5.2) |
| | | Kenny Golladay | (4.5) |
| | | Eric Ebron | (8.8) |
| | | Lions DST | (6.8) |
Start Him
No Aaron Rodgers. No Aaron Jones. No tough run defense. Everything's coming up Williams in a season finale where he'll likely be asked to carry the Packers offense. The Lions have allowed an opposing running back to get nine-plus Fantasy points in 11 of their last 12 overall, including back in Week 9 when Williams delivered nine of his own — on three touches! Williams has at least 15 carries in six of his last seven and has come through with solid outings (at least eight points) in four of them. Just about any running back with 20-touch potential should get attention in Week 17.
Texans at Colts
| Texans | | Colts | |
| T.J. Yates | (1.9) | Jacoby Brissett | (6.1) |
| Lamar Miller | (6.3) | Frank Gore | (7.3) |
| Alfred Blue | (4.3) | Marlon Mack | (4.7) |
| Will Fuller | (4.45) | T.Y. Hilton | (8.3) |
| Texans DST | (6.4) | Jack Doyle | (6.7) |
| | | Colts DST | (5.0) |
Start Him
It's a risk going with Doyle — he's become a PPR-only tight end over the last couple of weeks — but the matchup is too good to ignore. Houston's coverage against tight ends is mediocre at best and Doyle is an established part of the Colts offense. If you're in the reception-based leagues, you'll be tickled to know Doyle's hit 10-plus points in three straight. He's not quite as good-looking in standard leagues, but the chance of a touchdown on top of pretty good targets makes Doyle worth a look as at least a low-end Fantasy starter.
Risky Starter
For the past two weeks we've seen Alfred Blue get more carries than Miller and do a better job with them. Before Week 16 we chalked it up to the Texans playing from behind and not risking any further injury to Miller, but on Christmas only three of Blue's 16 carries came once Miller was off the field (early fourth quarter). It means we're seeing the Texans use two backs instead of one, complicating issues as to who will do what in a pretty good matchup at the Colts. Worse yet, Miller has played on just two snaps inside the opponents 10-yard line in the past two weeks while Blue has played six such snaps, including four from the 1-yard line. It's hard to believe in Miller.
Browns at Steelers
| Browns | | Steelers | |
| DeShone Kizer | (4.0) | Landry Jones | (4.5) |
| Duke Johnson | (7.1) | Stevan Ridley | (5.95) |
| Isaiah Crowell | (6.4) | JuJu Smith-Schuster | (7.1) |
| Josh Gordon | (5.7) | Martavis Bryant | (6.8) |
| Corey Coleman | (4.55) | Eli Rogers | (3.5) |
| David Njoku | (3.8) | Justin Hunter | (2.1) |
| Browns DST | (3.6) | Vance McDonald | (4.2) |
| | | Steelers DST | (9.3) |
Start Him
It's been four weeks since the Steelers lost linebacker Ryan Shazier. In those four weeks they've allowed 5.7 yards per carry, 10.7 yards per catch and five touchdowns to running backs. Four running backs have hit the 10-point Fantasy mark in the last three of those games, too. So why Duke over Isaiah Crowell? Frankly, Johnson's been more consistent, hitting 10 Fantasy points in each of his past three (14-plus in PPR). He's the one who plays a bunch when the Browns are chasing the scoreboard and quarterback DeShone Kizer has hit him for at least four catches in eight of his last nine. He's 54 yards from 1,000 total on the season, and he's the safest Browns running back to take advantage of the matchup.
Cowboys at Eagles
| Cowboys | | Eagles | |
| Dak Prescott | (6.3) | Nick Foles | (4.2) |
| Ezekiel Elliott | (9.6) | Nate Sudfeld | (1.1) |
| Dez Bryant | (6.9) | Corey Clement | (5.25) |
| Cole Beasley | (2.2) | Jay Ajayi | (4.0) |
| Jason Witten | (3.4) | Kenjon Barner | (3.3) |
| Cowboys DST | (5.4) | Alshon Jeffery | (4.7) |
| | | Nelson Agholor | (3.2) |
| | | Trey Burton | (4.4) |
| | | Eagles DST | (7.8) |
Sit Him
I have a hard time believing the Eagles will play their top defensive players for four quarters of a meaningless game. Leading pass rusher Brandon Graham (9.5 sacks) hurt his ankle last week and seems like a candidate to take the week off. It should make for an easier matchup for Prescott, who has nothing to play for other than going into the offseason on a high note, but the Cowboys brass announced that they're considering resting their starters during this game, too. So even though the Eagles starters allowed 24-plus points to opposing quarterbacks in three games before Derek Carr's stink bomb on Monday, the threat of Prescott not playing four quarters makes him too risky to play.
49ers at Rams
| 49ers | | Rams | |
| Jimmy Garoppolo | (7.2) | Sean Mannion | (3.7) |
| Carlos Hyde | (8.4) | Malcolm Brown | (5.7) |
| Matt Breida | (4.1) | Lance Dunbar | (3.2) |
| Marquise Goodwin | (7.5) | Josh Reynolds | (4.4) |
| Trent Taylor | (4.0) | Rams DST | (5.8) |
| George Kittle | (4.6) | | |
| Garrett Celek | (3.2) | | |
| 49ers DST | (6.0) | | |
Start Him
Rams coach Sean McVay seems willing to rest some of his starters since this game is meaningless to them. Heck, the Rams might be OK with losing to have a better shot at the No. 4 seed (and a home matchup against the Falcons or Seahawks) rather than the No. 3 seed (and a home matchup against the Panthers or Saints). This is all great news for Garoppolo, who slayed the Jaguars for three touchdowns last week and has been nothing short of sensational since becoming their starter. L.A. has been solid against opposing quarterbacks but figures to be in for a tough time even if their first-stringers play four quarters. Now it seems like the backups will play more, making things easier for Garoppolo.
Raiders at Chargers
| Raiders | | Chargers | |
| Derek Carr | (4.8) | Philip Rivers | (8.5) |
| Marshawn Lynch | (6.8) | Melvin Gordon | (9.5) |
| Jalen Richard | (3.1) | Keenan Allen | (8.9) |
| Michael Crabtree | (6.7) | Tyrell Williams | (4.9) |
| Amari Cooper | (5.9) | Travis Benjamin | (3.4) |
| Jared Cook | (4.0) | Antonio Gates | (7.3) |
| Raiders DST | (4.2) | Chargers DST | (8.8) |
Risky Starter
Will this be Lynch's final game in the NFL? Who knows, but the 25 carries he logged in last week's meaningless game is evidence that he's still trying to rack up numbers. He happens to be 98 yards shy of an even 10,000 rush yards in his career and 107 yards shy from tying Ricky Williams for 30th on the league's all-time rushing list. Maybe that's his motivation, maybe it's not, but either way he'll rumble against a Chargers run defense that should get linebacker Denzel Perryman back. That'll make a difference, as will the game script that should take the Raiders run game away because of a lopsided score in the second half. Lynch's matchup would be much better if Perryman didn't play.
Chiefs at Broncos
| Chiefs | | Broncos | |
| Patrick Mahomes | (5.8) | Paxton Lynch | (2.4) |
| Charcandrick West | (5.6) | C.J. Anderson | (8.6) |
| Akeem Hunt | (5.1) | Devontae Booker | (3.7) |
| Demarcus Robinson | (2.7) | Demaryius Thomas | (6.95) |
| Chiefs DST | (6.6) | Broncos DST | (8.2) |
Risky Starter
Thomas should line up against many second-stringers on the Chiefs defense, but it's more concerning that he'll catch passes from Paxton Lynch. For his career he's sporting a 59.8 completion percentage, 5.5 yards per attempt and two touchdowns over 97 pass attempts. Fine, those numbers came against starters. In parts of seven preseason games over two seasons, Lynch has a 60.9 completion percentage, 6.0 yards per attempt with four touchdowns and two interceptions over 92 pass attempts. That's kinda sorta better. I would imagine that Lynch will lean on Thomas as 27 percent of those 97 regular-season pass attempts went his way, but we've learned through the years that targets don't necessarily mean big things for Thomas.
Jaguars at Titans
| Jaguars | | Titans | |
| Blake Bortles | (8.4) | Marcus Mariota | (6.0) |
| Leonard Fournette | (7.9) | Derrick Henry | (8.5) |
| Corey Grant | (4.5) | Rishard Matthews | (5.4) |
| T.J. Yeldon | (3.9) | Corey Davis | (4.8) |
| Keelan Cole | (7.9) | Delanie Walker | (7.2) |
| Dede Westbrook | (7.4) | Titans DST | (4.4) |
| Jaguars DST | (9.2) | | |
Start Him
Cole is tied with DeAndre Hopkins for most Fantasy points by a receiver over the past three weeks and leads the field in yards by 92. That's pretty dang remarkable for a guy who wasn't on the Fantasy radar a month ago. A safe bet for 10 Fantasy points, Cole is expected to line up against veteran cornerback Brice McCain in the slot for the Titans, a very beatable matchup. With the Jaguars expected to play their starters for much, if not all, of the game, Cole is worth starting.
Saints at Buccaneers
| Saints | | Buccaneers | |
| Drew Brees | (7.4) | Jameis Winston | (6.6) |
| Mark Ingram | (9.3) | Peyton Barber | (5.2) |
| Alvin Kamara | (9.0) | Charles Sims | (3.6) |
| Michael Thomas | (9.3) | Mike Evans | (8.7) |
| Ted Ginn | (4.6) | Adam Humphries | (4.95) |
| Saints DST | (7.6) | Chris Godwin | (3.0) |
| | | Cameron Brate | (4.8) |
| | | Buccaneers DST | (3.8) |
Risky Starter
Last week was Winston's first truly poor outing since coming back from shoulder surgery in Week 13, but it wouldn't have been so bad if he hadn't fumbled the ball away three times. But the fumbling can be blamed on his weakened offensive line, which also had a hand in him getting sacked six times. You can bank on the Saints bringing a blitz on Sunday to knock Winston down, just as they did last week when Matt Ryan was sacked five times. Between that and the Saints' good ball-hawking secondary, odds are against Winston having a good game.
Bills at Dolphins
| Bills | | Dolphins | |
| Tyrod Taylor | (6.9) | Jay Cutler | (3.9) |
| LeSean McCoy | (9.4) | Kenyan Drake | (9.1) |
| Kelvin Benjamin | (6.0) | Jarvis Landry | (8.2) |
| Zay Jones | (2.4) | DeVante Parker | (5.6) |
| Charles Clay | (7.0) | Kenny Stills | (5.0) |
| Bills DST | (8.3) | Dolphins DST | (5.2) |
| | | | |
Start Him
Back in Week 15, the Bills went after the Dolphins linebackers with a big dose of targets to Clay along with other tight ends and running backs. Expect a similar attack at Miami. Clay has 19 targets in his last two games and just hasn't come through with a touchdown despite three targets in or near the end zone last week. The matchup is easier, and there's evidence of the Bills leaning on their big short-area options against the Fins.
Cardinals at Seahawks
| Cardinals | | Seahawks | |
| Drew Stanton | (5.0) | Russell Wilson | (8.9) |
| Kerwynn Williams | (5.0) | Mike Davis | (3.8) |
| D.J. Foster | (3.0) | Doug Baldwin | (9.1) |
| Larry Fitzgerald | (7.8) | Paul Richardson | (5.8) |
| John Brown | (5.5) | Tyler Lockett | (2.8) |
| Cardinals DST | (7.0) | Jimmy Graham | (6.9) |
| | | Seahawks DST | (8.4) |
Sneaky Sleeper
This isn't chasing touchdowns — Brown scored last week — this is chasing a matchup. In his past five games, Seahawks cornerback Byron Maxwell has allowed three touchdowns and a gaudy 85.3 percent of passes completed. Maxwell's a pretty big corner who can't match up with Brown's speed. The hunch is that the Cardinals try to exploit it. It'll only help that Arizona should have no success running the ball, forcing Drew Stanton to loft up some passes. After playing 41 snaps last week in a blowout win, Brown should have some chances at being on the boom side of the boom-bust fence.
Panthers at Falcons
| Panthers | | Falcons | |
| Cam Newton | (8.2) | Matt Ryan | (8.3) |
| Christian McCaffrey | (8.2) | Devonta Freeman | (7.8) |
| Jonathan Stewart | (5.3) | Tevin Coleman | (6.1) |
| Devin Funchess | (7.3) | Julio Jones | (9.5) |
| Greg Olsen | (7.8) | Mohamed Sanu | (6.3) |
| Panthers DST | (7.2) | Austin Hooper | (3.6) |
| | | Falcons DST | (6.2) |
Start Him
Though there is concern about his offensive line getting whooped by the Panthers pass rush, Ryan is set up for a fantastic finish to an otherwise down season. His best game this year was 22 Fantasy points at Carolina. His past three games against the Panthers? At least 22 Fantasy points with multiple touchdowns in each including a 503-yard, four-score thrashing last October. Carolina's pass defense? It's averaged 291.3 pass yards allowed over its last seven with 2.0 pass scores given up per game. Figuring Ryan will get the green light to throw with the playoffs on the line, count on him to produce his best game of the Fantasy season.
Sit Him
The Falcons run defense has held opposing running backs to 3.5 yards per carry and just three touchdowns over its last six games. That isn't good news for Stewart, who has accounted for exactly one touchdown in his last eight against the Falcons and hasn't registered 14 carries in a game against the Falcons since 2010.
Bengals at Ravens
| Bengals | | Ravens | |
| Andy Dalton | (4.6) | Joe Flacco | (6.8) |
| Giovani Bernard | (7.7) | Alex Collins | (7.6) |
| A.J. Green | (8.0) | Javorius Allen | (4.9) |
| Brandon LaFell | (3.9) | Danny Woodhead | (4.2) |
| Bengals DST | (5.6) | Mike Wallace | (7.0) |
| | | Benjamin Watson | (5.6) |
| | | Ravens DST | (8.6) |
| | | | |
Risky Starter
Didn't learn your lesson last week, did you? Wallace might be the top receiver for the Ravens, but they've been getting by without him making huge contributions. Consider this: Joe Flacco is riding a four-game hot streak with multiple touchdowns in each game, and Wallace has none of them. Two more things are working against Wallace this week: One, a tougher matchup against a Bengals secondary that's allowed four touchdowns and 11.5 yards per reception to wideouts over its past nine. Two, the Ravens figure to be as conservative as they were last week, particularly since the defense should slam on Andy Dalton. Wallace is safe as a borderline No. 2/No. 3 receiver.
