Touchdowns are awesome for Fantasy Football. They're literally the best thing a player can do on any play. But counting on them can be an exercise in futility. Jared Cook has been the exception to that rule, but you shouldn't count on that continuing. Cook posted a 13% touchdown rate in 2019 and that caused me (and most Fantasy analysts) to list Cook as a Fantasy bust. Silly me, Cook has a 13% touchdown rate this season. And you know what? I still don't want to use him as a streamer in Week 15.
Why don't I think Cook can keep it up? Even the great Rob Gronkowski has a career touchdown rate below 10%. In fact, Gronk only has three seasons out of 10 with a touchdown rate above 10%. Why does it matter so much? Cook has two games this season with more than three catches. He's only topped 40 yards three times. If he doesn't score he is an absolutely miserable Fantasy option.
So I'd rather leave Cook on the waiver wire and start someone like Cole Kmet. Kmet took over the feature tight end role for Jimmy Graham two weeks ago and he has seven targets in each game. Kmet's 78 yards in those two games are more than Cook has in his last five.
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Week 15 TE Preview
Numbers to Know
- 1,250 -- Receiving yards for Travis Kelce, which leads the NFL. No tight end has ever led the league in receiving for a full season.
- 13% -- Touchdown rate for Jared Cook this year. Maybe regression will never get him in New Orleans.
- 12 -- Tight ends have score 12 touchdowns against the Jets this year, six in the last four weeks.
- 7 -- Cole Kmet has seven targets in each of his past two games.
Matchups that matter
Waiver Wire Targets
This is almost entirely about the Jets defense. But also, Tyler Higbee has shown us that when he sees targets he produces Fantasy points. And Sean McVay has been playing a lot more two-tight end sets as of late.
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DFS Plays
I can find good values with big upside at every other position. I'd much rather play Kelce than touchdown roulette with the cheaper tight ends.
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Heath's Projections
So who should you start and sit this week? And which surprising quarterback could lead you to victory? Visit SportsLine now to get Week 15 rankings for every position, plus see which QB is going to come out of nowhere to crack the top 10, all from the model that out-performed experts big-time last season.
