No one wants to hear about how the guy who did great things probably can't keep them up. But it you were looking for guys to write that about, Courtland Sutton would be one of the top candidates.
What stands out about Sutton is obvious; his 12% touchdown rate. He's scored nine times on 75 targets this year. From 2020 through 2022 he scored four touchdowns on 213 targets. Virtually no one scores at a 10% clip, much less a 12% clip, so regression is coming at some point, just maybe not this year. Hopefully not in Week 14.
To put this in context, Sutton currently ranks 35th in receptions, 29th in receiving yards, and 18th in PPR Fantasy points. His touchdowns have turned a No. 3 wide receiver into a must-start No. 2. Regression analysis would tell you this won't last. At least for Week 14, I don't care.
Sutton's Week 14 opponent, the Chargers, have given up the third most Fantasy points to wide receivers this season. They've allowed 13 touchdowns to the position in 12 games. Sutton has faced three other top-five matchups and he's scored 13.2 points against the Raiders, 19.1 against the Dolphins, and 16.6 against the Vikings. Of course, he also scored a touchdown in all three of those games.
The final point about Sutton that can get lost in the analysis is that there is a reason he's scoring so often. He's been targeted on 48% of Russell Wilson's throws into the end zone, which ranks second in the NFL, and Wilson has historically (and this season) produced one of the highest touchdown rates in the league.
You'll find Sutton inside my top 20 wide receivers this week and in my starting lineups.
- Heath's Week 14 Previews: QB | RB | WR | TE
You can find more in my weekly projections over at Sportsline. Now here is the rest of the Week 14 WR Preview:
Week 14 WR Preview
The following players are not being projected to play Week 14 at this time. Here's what it means:
WR Preview
Numbers to Know
- 41 -- Michael Pittman has seen 41 targets in his last three games. He's a borderline top-five wide receiver against the Bengals this week.
- 10 -- Mike Evans went over 1,000 receiving yards for the 10th straight season. He has double-digit touchdowns in five of those seasons.
- 27 -- Adam Thielen only has 27 receiving yards in his last two games combined. Jonathan Mingo looks like the Panthers' No. 1 and Thielen looks like someone you'd rather sit.
- 2.91 -- Nico Collins' 2.91 YPRR ranks third behind only Tyreek Hill and Brandon Aiyuk this season. He should be a league winner without Tank Dell.
- 2.92 -- Deebo Samuel leads all receivers at 2.92 Fantasy points per target. Brandon Aiyuk is second at 2.48.
- 30.6% -- Rashee Rice leads the Chiefs with a 30.6% target share over the past two weeks. As he runs more routes those efficiency stats are starting to pay off in Fantasy production.
WR Preview
Matchups that matter
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Sportsline
WR Preview
Waiver Wire Targets
Week 14 Adds (WR Preview)
Top DFS Play (WR Preview)
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Contrarian DFS Play (WR Preview)
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WR Preview
Heath's Projections
My full set of Week 14 Fantasy Football projections for every position are now available on SportsLine. Find out which of my favorite plays are projected to score higher than consensus rankings and which don't live up to their draft hype, at least in Week 14. Projected stats for all starting quarterbacks are available at Sportsline.
