I did some research Monday while waiting for the Patriots-Bills game to start to try and quantify just how much passing production has gone down over the past five weeks, and it turned out to be a pretty timely exercise. I found some pretty astonishing numbers in my research. Here's what all quarterbacks had produced since Week 9, compared to what they did in Weeks 1 through 5 of this season:
- Weeks 1-5: 248.5 passing yards per game, 4.86% touchdown rate, 2.13% interception rate, 8.01 yards per pass attempt
- Weeks 9-13: 219.2 passing yards per game, 4.05% touchdown rate, 2.75% interception rate, 6.81 yards per pass attempt
All told, quarterbacks were averaging 18.65 Fantasy points per game in six-point-per-pass-TD scoring just from their passing production through Week 5; that had dropped to 15.18 over the past five games. That's the second-worst mark of any five-game stretch over the past decade. Yikes.
And that was before the Patriots and Bills combined for 164 passing yards Monday night. The Patriots managed to win, 14-10, despite Mac Jones throwing three passes. Three. It was a windy night in Buffalo, with conditions that made it hard for either team to do much on offense, so that's your explanation for the extreme performances. Which, of course, makes it hard for us to take anything away meaningful from that game.
So, we won't. We'll just move on to Week 14, where the Patriots are joined on the final week of byes by the Dolphins, Colts, and Eagles. That bye gives Damien Harris an extra week to get over the hamstring injury he suffered in the one bit of news you need to know about from Monday's game. If he can't, Rhamondre Stevenson may enter Week 15 against the Colts as a top-12 RB and a potential Fantasy playoffs difference maker.
In today's newsletter, I've got Jamey Eisenberg's top waiver-wire targets coming for you, plus a first look at my rankings for the week -- and I'll catch you up on all of the injury news from Monday you need to know about for each position, as well.
Make sure you tune in to Fantasy Football Today on CBS Sports HQ at noon ET for updates on the latest injury news, and for help locking in your waiver-wire claims join Heath Cummings, Adam Aizer and me on the FFT YouTube stream tonight at 8 p.m., where we'll be taking your questions live for an hour. If you have any questions before then, as always, you can email me at Chris.Towers@ViacomCBS.com with the subject line "#AskFFT" to be included this week -- including in tomorrow's trade mailbag.
And here's what we've got on tap in today's newsletter:
- ➕Top Week 14 Waiver Wire Targets
- 📈Week 14 Rankings📉
➕Top Week 14 Waiver Wire Targets
There's no one obvious must-have player on this week's list, but if you're looking for RB help, there are some intriguing options available. You can find Jamey's full breakdown of his top targets here, but here are the top options:
Jamey Eisenberg's top targets
- D'Onta Foreman, RB, Titans (61%) -- Foreman and Dontrell Hilliard combined for 31 carries in a three-score loss to the Patriots in Week 12, and the Titans are 10-point favorites against the Jaguars this week, so they should get plenty of work. Hilliard has more upside with a potential passing-game role, but Jeremy McNichols' potential return complicates things there. If you have to pick one right now, Foreman should be the guy.
- Taysom Hill, QB, Saints (59%) -- Hill benefited from standard Fantasy scoring's disconnect from actual QB quality of play, so his four-interception game in Week 13 was actually a pretty positive one from our perspective -- he rushed for 101 yards and finished with 25 Fantasy points. That rushing production will make him a viable starting Fantasy option as long as he's not so bad as a passer that he gets benched. That shouldn't happen against the Jets.
- Rashaad Penny, RB, Seahawks (41%) -- Penny got through a whole game without getting hurt, which is cause for celebration for a guy who has really struggled with injuries over the past few seasons. He played 41% of the snaps in Week 13, and as D'Onta Foreman learned in Tennessee, Adrian Peterson is not exactly a huge obstacle to playing time if another RB shows a spark. I'll bet on Penny having more of a spark than anyone else there.
- KJ Osborn, WR, Vikings (8%) -- With Adam Thielen dealing with a high-ankle sprain, Osborn could be in line for a significant role down the stretch. Osborn opened some eyes with his play in the preseason and early on in the season, and he's a pretty good athlete with 4.48 speed. He could emerge as a viable starter if Thielen misses multiple weeks.
- JaMycal Hasty, RB, 49ers (5%) -- Hasty hasn't shown us much, but he may have a big opportunity in Week 14 against the Bengals after Elijah Mitchell was added to the concussion protocol Monday. Jeff Wilson is also dealing with an apparent setback with his surgically repaired knee that kept him off the field Sunday, which leaves Hasty as the only healthy running back on the 49ers roster -- Trey Sermon was placed on IR last week. We know how good this offense is for running backs, so Hasty could end up being the top target if we get bad news about Mitchell and WIlson Tuesday.
📈Week 14 Rankings📉
Here's where things stand for me in my first run through of the Week 14 rankings for PPR leagues. You can find Jamey, Dave, and Heath's rankings right here:
Quarterbacks
Maybe you want to sit Lamar Jackson or Patrick Mahomes, given their struggles of late. If you happen to have Tom Brady or Josh Allen on your team alongside Jackson, go for it; if you've got Justin Herbert, Kyler Murray or Dak Prescott, you can do it with Mahomes, too. But, you probably don't have those kinds of must-start superstars available. And, for as frustrating as Jackson and Mahomes have been, I'm just not sitting them for the likes of Taysom Hill or Derek Carr. I just can't bring myself to do it.
On a bye: Tua Tagovailoa, Mac Jones, Jalen Hurts, Gardner Minshew, Carson Wentz
Injuries, news, and notes
- Jalen Hurts will start for the Eagles in Week 15 -- That's not surprising, despite Minshew's solid performance against the lowly Jets. But maybe it impacted Hurts' job security?
- Joe Burrow will play through a dislocated pinky -- Burrow has been miserable of late, with three touchdowns in four games, and now he's hurt and gets a tough matchup against the 49ers. He's a fringe starter.
- Tyrod Taylor has a wrist injury -- Davis Mills is expected to start, which might actually be good news for Brandin Cooks; he averaged 14.8 points on 9.9 targets per game with Mills vs. 11.7 and 7.5 with Cooks.
- Mike Glennon is in the concussion protocol -- And Daniel Jones (neck) is unlikely to play this week as he has yet to be cleared for contact. 2020 fifth-rounder Jake Fromm will likely start for the Giants this week if neither Glennon nor Jones can play.
Rankings
- Josh Allen @TB
- Tom Brady vs. BUF
- Lamar Jackson @CLE
- Justin Herbert vs. NYG
- Kyler Murray vs. LAR
- Dak Prescott @WAS
- Aaron Rodgers vs. CHI
- Patrick Mahomes vs. LV
- Matthew Stafford @ARI
- Cam Newton vs. ATL
- Taysom Hill @NYJ
- Russell Wilson @HOU
- Joe Burrow vs. SF
- Taylor Heinicke vs. DAL
- Teddy Bridgewater vs. DET
- Kirk Cousins vs. PIT
- Ryan Tannehill vs. JAX
- Ben Roethlisberger @MIN
- Derek Carr @KC
- Matt Ryan @CAR
- Zach Wilson vs. NO
- Baker Mayfield vs. BAL
- Jimmy Garoppolo @CIN
- Trevor Lawrence @TEN
Running backs
The replacement running backs were a bit of a mixed bag in Week 13; Alexander Mattison, Javonte Williams, and Sony Michel were stars, but Mark Ingram and Jamaal Williams left a lot more to be desired. Now, we'll get to see what Chuba Hubbard looks like replacing Christian McCaffrey for the rest of the season. Spoiler alert: I'm not particularly excited about Hubbard. I actually almost ranked teammate Ameer Abdullah ahead of him for PPR thanks to his pass-catching role.
On a bye: Jonathan Taylor, Miles Sanders, Damien Harris, Rhamondre Stevenson, Myles Gaskin, Boston Scott, Kenneth Gainwell
Injuries, news, and notes
- Elijah Mitchell is in the concussion protocol -- Mitchell was able to play through the injury Sunday, but he had symptoms come about Monday. That puts him in doubt for Week 14, and with Trey Sermon on IR and Jeff Wilson having a setback with his knee last week, that's why Hasty is relevant on the wire.
- Kenyan Drake suffered a broken ankle in Week 13 -- That ends Drake's season, and this could cement Josh Jacobs as a borderline top-12 RB thanks to his increased passing game role -- he has nine targets in Week 13 and has 25 over the past four weeks.
Rankings
- Austin Ekeler vs. NYG
- Alexander Mattison vs. PIT
- Najee Harris @MIN
- Leonard Fournette vs. BUF
- Joe Mixon vs. SF
- Javonte Williams vs. DET
- Alvin Kamara @NYJ
- Ezekiel Elliott @WAS
- Cordarrelle Patterson @CAR
- David Montgomery @GB
- Antonio Gibson vs. DAL
- Josh Jacobs @KC
- Saquon Barkley @LAC
- Aaron Jones vs. CHI
- Sony Michel @ARI
- Nick Chubb vs. BAL
- James Robinson @TEN
- Kareem Hunt vs. BAL
- Clyde Edwards-Helaire vs. LV
- Jamaal Williams @DEN
- Chuba Hubbard vs. ATL
- Devonta Freeman @CLE
- Dontrell Hilliard vs. JAX
- AJ Dillon vs. CHI
- James Conner vs. LAR
- Tony Pollard @WAS
- D'Onta Foreman vs. JAX
- Chase Edmonds vs. LAR
- JaMycal Hasty @CIN
- Rex Burkhead vs. SEA
- Tevin Coleman vs. NO
- Darrel Williams vs. LV
- Ameer Abdullah vs. ATL
- Mark Ingram @NYJ
- Ty Johnson vs. NO
- Rashaad Penny @HOU
- Adrian Peterson @HOU
- Mike Davis @CAR
- Matt Breida @TB
- Godwin Igwebuike @DEN
- Devin Singletary @TB
- Zack Moss @TB
- Carlos Hyde @TEN
- Samaje Perine vs. SF
- Jeff Wilson @CIN
- Latavius Murray @CLE
- Devontae Booker @LAC
- Peyton Barber @KC
Wide receivers
Wide receiver has been a bit of a mess for Fantasy of late, and things aren't going to get any better in Week 14. It feels like a shockingly shallow position at this point, and you'd really love to see the likes of Terry McLaurin, DK Metcalf, Odell Beckham, Jerry Jeudy and Brandin Cooks start to turn things around and live up to their potential. I've still got each of those players in my top-30 at the position -- and there's a pretty steep drop at the position right around there -- so hopefully we start to see better from them.
On a bye: Michael Pittman, T.Y. Hilton, Jaylen Waddle, DeVante Parker, Will Fuller, Nelson Agholor, Kendrick Bourne, DeVonta Smith
Injuries, news, and notes
- Keenan Allen is on the reserve/COVID-19 list -- Typically, players who have gone on the COVID list Monday have missed the following game, so that's a bummer for Allen. There's still a chance he plays, but for now, I'm expecting MIke Williams to be the No. 1 WR for the Chargers, and it'll be interesting to see how he responds given his up-and-down season. He'll be a top-20 WR if Allen is out.
- Adam Thielen has a high-ankle sprain -- It looks incredibly unlikely Thielen will be able to play Thursday against the Steelers, and that might not be the only game he misses. Osborn has a chance to prove himself.
- Julio Jones has been designated to return from his hamstring injury -- In trying to project the Titans passing game, I mostly just left it blank until we get the word about Jones. He just hasn't been able to get right this season, but I still believe he could be a difference maker if healthy.
- Corey Davis will have season-ending core-muscle surgery -- Elijah Moore WR1 SZN continues.
- Deonte Harris has been suspended for three games -- Bad timing for Harris, who had 96 yards and a touchdown in Week 13 and has been the team's top target of late.
Rankings
- Davante Adams vs. CHI
- Justin Jefferson vs. PIT
- Tyreek Hill vs. LV
- Cooper Kupp @ARI
- Stefon Diggs @TB
- CeeDee Lamb @WAS
- Diontae Johnson @MIN
- Chris Godwin vs. BUF
- D.J. Moore vs. ATL
- Mike Evans vs. BUF
- Ja'Marr Chase vs. SF
- Amari Cooper @WAS
- Tee Higgins vs. SF
- Elijah Moore vs. NO
- Marquise Brown @CLE
- Tyler Lockett @HOU
- D.K. Metcalf @HOU
- Hunter Renfrow @KC
- Mike Williams vs. NYG
- Terry McLaurin vs. DAL
- Brandon Aiyuk @CIN
- DeAndre Hopkins vs. LAR
- Odell Beckham @ARI
- Darnell Mooney @GB
- Jerry Jeudy vs. DET
- Brandin Cooks vs. SEA
- Jarvis Landry vs. BAL
- Jamison Crowder vs. NO
- Chase Claypool @MIN
- Van Jefferson @ARI
- Russell Gage @CAR
- Michael Gallup @WAS
- Kenny Golladay @LAC
- Tyler Boyd vs. SF
- Laviska Shenault @TEN
- Marvin Jones @TEN
- Marquez Valdes-Scantling vs. CHI
- Amon-Ra St. Brown @DEN
- Mecole Hardman vs. LV
- Rashod Bateman @CLE
- Cole Beasley @TB
- Tim Patrick vs. DET
- K.J. Osborn vs. PIT
- Courtland Sutton vs. DET
- Christian Kirk vs. LAR
- Bryan Edwards @KC
- Emmanuel Sanders @TB
- Josh Palmer vs. NYG
Tight ends
Two starting Fantasy tight ends are on bye this week and another two are dealing with injuries. That makes this an even shallower position than usual, and you might find yourself having to lean on someone like Cole Kmet or Tyler Conklin, guys with some potential but who haven't done nearly enough to earn anyone's trust yet.
On a bye: Dallas Goedert, Mike Gesicki, Hunter Henry, Jonnu Smith, Jack Doyle
Injuries, news, and notes
- Darren Waller is day to day -- Which means he has a chance to play this week. We'll keep a close eye on Wednesday's practice reports for our first sign.
- Logan Thomas did not suffer a torn ACL -- That was the concern immediately after the game, but an MRI revealed less damage than expected. That might mean Thomas can return this season, but I'm proceeding as if he's out for Sunday's game against the Cowboys.
Rankings
- Travis Kelce vs. LV
- George Kittle @CIN
- Mark Andrews @CLE
- Rob Gronkowski vs. BUF
- T.J. Hockenson @DEN
- Kyle Pitts @CAR
- Dalton Schultz @WAS
- Foster Moreau @KC
- Noah Fant vs. DET
- Tyler Higbee @ARI
- Zach Ertz vs. LAR
- Dawson Knox @TB
- Tyler Conklin vs. PIT
- Cole Kmet @GB
- Jared Cook vs. NYG
- Gerald Everett @HOU
- James O'Shaughnessy @TEN
- John Bates vs. DAL
- O.J. Howard vs. BUF
- Evan Engram @LAC
- Austin Hooper vs. BAL
- David Njoku vs. BAL
- C.J. Uzomah vs. SF
- Nick Vannett @NYJ
Top-150 Flex Rankings
- Austin Ekeler vs. NYG
- Alexander Mattison vs. PIT
- Davante Adams vs. CHI
- Najee Harris @MIN
- Leonard Fournette vs. BUF
- Justin Jefferson vs. PIT
- Joe Mixon vs. SF
- Tyreek Hill vs. LV
- Cooper Kupp @ARI
- Javonte Williams vs. DET
- Alvin Kamara @NYJ
- Ezekiel Elliott @WAS
- Stefon Diggs @TB
- Cordarrelle Patterson @CAR
- David Montgomery @GB
- Antonio Gibson vs. DAL
- CeeDee Lamb @WAS
- Josh Jacobs @KC
- Saquon Barkley @LAC
- Aaron Jones vs. CHI
- Diontae Johnson @MIN
- Sony Michel @ARI
- Sony Michel vs. JAX
- Travis Kelce vs. LV
- Miles Sanders @NYJ
- Nick Chubb vs. BAL
- Chris Godwin vs. BUF
- D.J. Moore vs. ATL
- Mike Evans vs. BUF
- George Kittle @CIN
- Ja'Marr Chase vs. SF
- Mark Andrews @CLE
- Amari Cooper @WAS
- Tee Higgins vs. SF
- Elijah Moore vs. NO
- James Robinson @TEN
- Kareem Hunt vs. BAL
- Marquise Brown @CLE
- Brandon Aiyuk @SEA
- Terry McLaurin @LV
- Tyler Lockett @HOU
- D.K. Metcalf @HOU
- Hunter Renfrow @KC
- Clyde Edwards-Helaire vs. LV
- Jamaal Williams @DEN
- Chuba Hubbard vs. ATL
- Devonta Freeman @CLE
- Dontrell Hilliard vs. JAX
- AJ Dillon vs. CHI
- Rob Gronkowski vs. BUF
- T.J. Hockenson @DEN
- Mike Williams vs. NYG
- Terry McLaurin vs. DAL
- Brandon Aiyuk @CIN
- DeAndre Hopkins vs. LAR
- James Conner vs. LAR
- Odell Beckham @ARI
- Darnell Mooney @GB
- Jerry Jeudy vs. DET
- Brandin Cooks vs. SEA
- Jarvis Landry vs. BAL
- Jamison Crowder vs. NO
- Chase Claypool @MIN
- Tony Pollard @WAS
- D'Onta Foreman vs. JAX
- Van Jefferson @ARI
- Kyle Pitts @CAR
- Russell Gage @CAR
- Chase Edmonds vs. LAR
- Michael Gallup @WAS
- Rex Burkhead vs. SEA
- Dalton Schultz @WAS
- Tevin Coleman vs. NO
- Kenny Golladay @LAC
- Darrel Williams vs. LV
- Tyler Boyd vs. SF
- Laviska Shenault @TEN
- Ameer Abdullah vs. ATL
- Marvin Jones @TEN
- Mark Ingram @NYJ
- Foster Moreau @KC
- Marquez Valdes-Scantling vs. CHI
- Ty Johnson vs. NO
- Amon-Ra St. Brown @DEN
- Mecole Hardman vs. LV
- Noah Fant vs. DET
- Rashod Bateman @CLE
- Tyler Higbee @ARI
- Cole Beasley @TB
- Amon-Ra St. Brown vs. MIN
- Tim Patrick vs. DET
- K.J. Osborn vs. PIT
- Zach Ertz vs. LAR
- Courtland Sutton vs. DET
- Dawson Knox @TB
- Tyler Conklin vs. PIT
- Christian Kirk vs. LAR
- Rashaad Peny @HOU
- Bryan Edwards @KC
- Cole Kmet @GB
- Jared Cook vs. NYG
- Adrian Peterson @HOU
- Cole Kmet vs. ARI
- Emmanuel Sanders @TB
- Josh Palmer vs. NYG
- Mike Davis @CAR
- Rondale Moore vs. LAR
- Zach Ertz @CHI
- Gerald Everett @HOU
- A.J. Green vs. LAR
- Matt Breida @TB
- Mohamed Sanu @CIN
- Godwin Igwebuike @DEN
- James O'Shaughnessy @TEN
- Devin Singletary @TB
- John Bates vs. DAL
- Deonte Harris @NYJ
- Zack Moss @TB
- O.J. Howard vs. BUF
- Evan Engram @LAC
- Devontae Booker @MIA
- Marquez Callaway @NYJ
- Allen Lazard vs. CHI
- Kendrick Bourne @BUF
- Sammy Watkins @CLE
- Nick Westbrook-Ikhine vs. JAX
- Donovan Peoples-Jones vs. BAL
- Carlos Hyde @TEN
- Austin Hooper vs. BAL
- Darius Slayton @LAC
- Samaje Perine vs. SF
- Randall Cobb vs. CHI
- Nico Collins vs. SEA
- Jeff Wilson @CIN
- Curtis Samuel vs. DAL
- Latavius Murray @CLE
- Devontae Booker @LAC
- Adam Humphries vs. DAL
- Laquon Treadwell @TEN
- Jalen Guyton vs. NYG
- Robby Anderson vs. ATL
- Peyton Barber @KC
- Travis Homer @HOU
- Kenny Stills vs. DAL
- Danny Amendola vs. SEA
- David Njoku vs. BAL
- Demarcus Robinson vs. LV
- Tajae Sharpe @CAR
- Olamide Zaccheaus @CAR
- Mekhi Sargent @ARI
2021 NFL jerseys now available
The new NFL season is here! Win or lose, you can shop jerseys, shirts, hats, and much more to support your favorite team. Shop here and show your colors.
We may receive a commission for purchases made through these links.
