There's been plenty of talk about the massive number of quarterback injuries and the impact they've had on the NFL this season. The impact has been felt particularly hard at wide receiver.
While we've adjusted to most of these situations, the Bengals situation is still fresh. Chase is still ranked as a must-start, but he's outside of my top five this week and I wouldn't be all that surprised if he falls outside the top 10 against a more difficult matchup later in the year. Higgins isn't expected to play this week, but when he does return he'll be much lower than that. He might even be dropped in more shallow leagues. Tyler Boyd is already being dropped, probably for good reason.
What we've mostly seen with the backup QBs is that the most elite wide receivers find a way to be start-worthy but everyone else can be absolutely crushed by a bad QB. Let's hope that trend doesn't continue with Higgins when he's ready.
There are no Giants wide receivers we want to start this week.
WR Preview
Numbers to Know
3.43 -- Brandon Aiyuk ranks second at wide receiver with 3.43 yards per route run. He and Tyreek Hill are the only receivers above three YPRR.
0.68 -- Only Allen Robinson has a lower YPRR than Jonathan Mingo's 0.68. His targets have gone up lately but the efficiency is so bad it is hard to care.
52.4% -- Courtland Sutton's touchdowns seem unsustainable, but he is the only WR in the NFL accounting for more than half of his team's end zone targets.
31.8% -- Mark Andrews has seen nearly a third of Baltimore's red zone targets. That's a lot of potential opportunities for Odell Beckham, Zay Flowers, and others.
30 -- Keenan Allen has seen 30 targets in the past two weeks. With everyone else hurt, he's gone to a different stratosphere. If he stays healthy he could be the No. 1 wide receiver in Fantasy rest of season.
15.4 -- Adam Thielen scored 15.4 PPR Fantasy points in Frank Reich's first game back calling plays. He's topped 14.5 in all but one of the games Reich has called plays.
Douglas has established himself as the No. 1 wide receiver on the Patriots with 23 targets in his last three games. I expect the rookie to continue to build on that as a WR3 who could give you WR2 numbers if he ever gets into the end zone.
Reed is a must-roster player, and the best wide receiver to roster on the Packers, but that doesn't quite make him a must-start wide receiver this week, even in a three-receiver leagues. The reason is that the ball is being spread around to such a degree that seemingly no one sees more than six targets in a game for the Packers. The rushing production was a nice bonus last week but you don't actually get anything for that if you pick him up this week.
I am always going to be the most skeptical of a 31-year-old with Beckham's injury history but he's starting to convince me. With Mark Andrews out the only thing that really matters is that Beckham seems to be convincing Lamar Jackson. The veteran has seven targets in three of his last five games and he's delivered 15-plus Fantasy points in two of his last three. He's a good flex this week and could be much more down the stretch.
You can't start Shakir this week based on one monster play, but you can add him and hope that the big play will convince the coaching staff to increase his role in the passing game.
Thielen's consistency with Frank Reich playing is nearly unmatched this season. I have him projected for 14.7 FanDuel points, which makes him one of the top projected scorers on the main slate and one of the top projected values. The funny thing is that has been very close to his floor with Reich calling plays.
I have Collins and Dell both projected as top-six wide receivers on the main slate but Collins is $900 cheaper on FanDuel and based on early week chatter I expect Dell to be rostered in more FanDuel lineups. I want a chunk of all the Texans this week, but Collins is the best value.
WR Preview
Heath's Projections
My full set of Week 12 Fantasy Football projections for every position are now available on SportsLine. Find out which of my favorite plays are projected to score higher than consensus rankings and which don't live up to their draft hype, at least in Week 11. Projected stats for all starting quarterbacks are available at Sportsline.
