Matt Ryan has not been a great Fantasy quarterback the past two games, but he should go off this week against Tampa Bay. He has the chance to be the No. 1 quarterback in Week 12.
In his past two games against New Orleans and Carolina, both on the road, Ryan has scored 18 Fantasy points in both outings. But that should change in a big way against the Buccaneers, who allow the second-most Fantasy points to opposing quarterbacks this season.
Only Jimmy Garoppolo in Week 1 and Cam Newton in Week 2 failed to score at least 21 Fantasy points against Tampa Bay. And the past four quarterbacks against the Buccaneers have each scored at least 25 Fantasy points.
Ryan averaged 32.5 Fantasy points in his past two games against Tampa Bay last season. And in his past five games overall against the Buccaneers he's averaging 328.8 passing yards per game with 11 total touchdowns and three interceptions.
It would be great if Ryan had a healthy Austin Hooper (knee) and Devonta Freeman (foot) for this game, but he should get by with Julio Jones and Calvin Ridley. I love the setup for Ryan in Week 12, and he's poised to go off against the Buccaneers at home.
I'm starting Ryan over: Drew Brees (vs. CAR), Aaron Rodgers (at SF), Dak Prescott (at NE), Tom Brady (vs. DAL) and Deshaun Watson (vs. IND)
START 'EM & SIT 'EM
Quarterbacks
Start 'Em
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Mayfield was a candidate for the Start of the Week in Week 12 given his recent level of play and the matchup against Miami. He comes into this game having scored at least 21 Fantasy points in his past two outings against tough Buffalo and Pittsburgh defenses. It seems the return of Kareem Hunt has been a nice boost for Mayfield as another reliable target, and now David Njoku (wrist) is back for the Browns. All of this should help Mayfield in a big way against the Dolphins, who have allowed at least 20 Fantasy points to seven of 10 quarterbacks this year. For the season, quarterbacks are averaging 25.6 Fantasy points per game against Miami, and Mayfield has the chance to be a top-five quarterback in Week 12.
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Brissett has been under 17 Fantasy points in each of his past three games, so he's due for a big outing this week. And the last time he had a quality Fantasy performance was Week 7 against Houston when he scored 35 Fantasy points. He is one of five quarterbacks to score at least 24 Fantasy points against this defense in the past six games, and Gardner Minshew in Week 9 is the lone quarterback who struggled against the Texans. Brissett could get T.Y. Hilton (calf) back for this game, which would be great, but even without Hilton, I still expect Brissett to have a strong performance on the road. He's a top-10 quarterback in Week 12.
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I thought Carr would play well in Week 11 against Cincinnati, and he did OK with 21 Fantasy points. He's now scored at least 21 points in three of his past four games, and he should once again have the chance for a quality performance in Week 12 at the Jets. Four quarterbacks in a row have played well against the Jets with at least 20 Fantasy points, including Minshew, Ryan Fitzpatrick, Daniel Jones and Dwayne Haskins. This is not a good defense, and Carr should have the chance for a big game.
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I was originally a little nervous about Winston this week. He's struggling again with six interceptions in his past two games, and this Falcons defense has turned the corner of late. In their past three games, Atlanta has held Russell Wilson, Drew Brees and Kyle Allen to fewer than 20 Fantasy points in each outing. But Winston's track record against the Falcons is amazing. In his past five meetings with Atlanta, Winston is averaging 316.2 passing yards per game with 18 touchdowns and four interceptions. I expect this game to be high scoring – it's the highest over/under for the week at 51.5 – and both quarterbacks should do well, including Winston.
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Sleepers
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Driskel just scored 31 Fantasy points against Dallas in Week 11. He also had 18 points at Chicago in Week 10, and Washington just allowed 33 Fantasy points to Sam Darnold in Week 11. One of my favorite stats for Driskel this week is he has more rushing yards in his past two games (88) than Kalen Ballage has in his past five games combined (86). With Matthew Stafford (back) out again, Driskel is worth using as a low-end starting option in all leagues.
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Darnold comes into Week 12 against Oakland with consecutive games of at least 23 Fantasy points. And while the Raiders have been better against quarterbacks of late, holding Philip Rivers and Ryan Finley to a combined 18 Fantasy points in the past two games, they still allow an average of 24.8 Fantasy points to the position for the year. I like Darnold as a low-end starter and top streaming option for this week.
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Tannehill doesn't have an easy matchup in Week 12 against the Jaguars, although two of the past four quarterbacks against Jacksonville have scored at least 20 Fantasy points. But Tannehill went into his bye in Week 11 having scored at least 22 Fantasy points in four games in a row. Hopefully, he stays hot in a key AFC South showdown.
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Sit 'Em
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Wentz has not been a good Fantasy quarterback lately, and it's hard to trust him this week against the Seahawks, especially with the receiving corps banged up. Alshon Jeffery (ankle) missed Week 11 against New England, and he could be out again. And Nelson Agholor (knee) missed practice on Wednesday. Wentz is running out of healthy bodies to catch passes, and he's scored fewer than 16 Fantasy points in four games in a row. I would only use Wentz in two-quarterback and Superflex leagues in Week 12.
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I'm torn on Rodgers this week because he should be good coming off his bye, and San Francisco is dealing with injuries on defense with Dee Ford (hamstring) out. But Rodgers doesn't have a great track record coming off a bye, scoring fewer than 18 Fantasy points in four of his past five games after a break. And he's combined for just 23 Fantasy points in his past two outings prior to Week 11 against the Chargers and Panthers. The 49ers have given up two big games to Kyler Murray in the past three weeks, but for the season San Francisco is allowing just 11.2 Fantasy points to opposing quarterbacks. Rodgers is risky as a starter in one-quarterback leagues this week.
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Foles did a nice job with 21 Fantasy points in Week 11 at Indianapolis in his first outing since Week 1 because of a collarbone injury. But I expect him to regress slightly this week with his Fantasy production. Not so much because of the Titans, who have allowed three of the past four opposing quarterbacks to score at least 23 Fantasy points. And Minshew had 21 Fantasy points as the starter for the Jaguars against Tennessee in Week 3. But the Jaguars are going to hammer Leonard Fournette in this game after just nine carries as a team in Week 11 at the Colts. Foles may have to throw, but it's doubtful he comes close to the 47 attempts he had against Indianapolis. He's a low-end starter at best in one-quarterback formats.
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Goff should get some help this week if Brandin Cooks (concussion) and Robert Woods (personal) return as expected, but I'm not sure that will matter against the Ravens. Baltimore has allowed just one quarterback to score more than 17 Fantasy points this season, which was Patrick Mahomes in Week 3, including matchups with Deshaun Watson, Brady, Russell Wilson and Murray. And Goff has combined for just seven Fantasy points in his past two games against Pittsburgh and Chicago. He's someone to avoid in all leagues if possible in Week 12.
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Bust Alert
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I loved Allen going into Week 11 at Miami, and he had one of the best performances of his career with 39 Fantasy points. He passed for 256 yards and three touchdowns, and he had seven carries for 56 yards and a touchdown as well. He's scored at least 20 Fantasy points in five of his past six games, and he should be in that range this week against the Broncos if things go right. But Denver has allowed an average of just 12.6 Fantasy points per game to opposing quarterbacks for the season, and only Minshew in Week 4 and Kirk Cousins last week have scored more than 19 points against the Broncos this year. I'm expecting some regression for Allen this week, and he's a low-end starter at best in Week 12.
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So who should you sit and start this week? And which surprising quarterback could lead you to victory? Visit SportsLine now to get Week 12 rankings for every position, plus see which QB is going to come out of nowhere to crack the top 10, all from the model that out-performed experts big time last season.
