In Week 12, there are six teams on bye. We don't have Josh Allen or Joe Burrow. Matthew Stafford has thrown 10 touchdown passes in his last four games combined, including four last week. You might think he's an easy start. You might be disappointed when you see he's not a top 12 QB for anyone in our Week 12 rankings.
The problem for Stafford starts with the matchup. The Philadelphia Eagles have become an elite defense.
Three of the first four QBs to face the Eagles scored at least 20 Fantasy points. Since their Week 5 bye, Trevor Lawrence's 18 Fantasy points is the best game against them. Lawrence needed two rushing touchdowns to reach that mark. Stafford hasn't run for a touchdown since 2022.
This defense has held Joe Burrow and Jayden Daniels to 14 Fantasy points. Burrow is the only QB to throw for more than 200 yards against them since Week 4. Over that stretch, they have five interceptions, and they've allowed two passing touchdowns.
I have other questions about the sustainability of Stafford's recent hot streak, but those will keep until he faces a better matchup. For now, the consensus agrees you can do better than Stafford in Week 12.
Let's get to the rest of the preview:
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7.5 -- Caleb Williams averaged 7.5 yards per attempt, his third-best game by that mark. Hopefully a sign of things to come now that Shane Waldron is gone.
25.0 -- Since Week 5, Bo Nix has averaged 25 FPPG. He's QB5 over that stretch.
24 -- Anthony Richardson has scored at least 24 Fantasy points in four of his nine complete games as a starter. The Fantasy upside is still immense.
11 -- Jordan Love, Patrick Mahomes, and Geno Smith are tied for the league lead in interceptions with 11. Love has thrown 87 fewer passes than Mahomes and 117 fewer than Smith.
Richardson reminded us of his upside in Week 11 and needs to be rostered everywhere. The 67% completion, in combination with 10 rush attempts, was extremely encouraging. The Lions pose a bigger test, but I still like Richardson as a top 15 QB this week. If he gives us one more great performance, we'll all rank him as a must-start option moving forward.
I hate the matchup for Winston, but he's averaging 23.4 FPPG since he took over as the starter, and there are six teams on a bye, so he's pretty clearly the second-best streamer behind Richardson. He's thrown at least 41 passes in three straight games, and he's averaging more than 300 yards per game. You may want to hide your eyes for the first three quarters, but even if the Steelers trounce the Browns, Winston can save the day in garbage time.
Mayfield has produced multiple touchdowns in eight of 10 starts this season. He's getting Mike Evans back. He feels like one of the safest QBs on the board, and he's not priced as a top-five option. I'm playing him in cash games, though in that format, I'm not sure I'm stacking him with anyone.
Arizona has been very good against QBs lately, so I am not sure I want to start Smith in a regular Fantasy league. I certainly wouldn't start him in a cash game. But he's throwing 37 passes a game and has DK Metcalf, Jaxon Smith-Njigba, and Tyler Lockett to work with. There's a blow-up game around the corner, and I may thrown a Seahawks stack together weekly until it hits,
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Heath's projections
My full set of Week 12 Fantasy football projections for every position are now available on SportsLine. You'll find them here. Find out which of my favorite plays are projected to score higher than consensus rankings and which don't live up to their draft hype, at least in Week 12. Projected stats for all starting running backs are available, so be sure to check out the full set of projections at SportsLine.
