With Patrick Mahomes, Philip Rivers, Kirk Cousins and Kyler Murray on bye in Week 12, there are plenty of managers scrambling for a replacement at quarterback. There's also no shortage of streaming options, but this week is really going to test of how much you care about the matchup, and how you measure it.
In terms of Fantasy points allowed, Baker Mayfield and Dwayne Haskins have the best matchups, but Mason Rudolph and Sam Darnold aren't far behind and their matchups rate better by yards per attempt allowed. The thing is, those four signal callers have combined to throw 36 touchdowns and 35 interceptions this season. None of them rank among the top 20 at the position. Jeff Driskel doesn't either, but he's performed surprisingly well against the Bears and Cowboys and now gets to face a Washington defense that just allowed Darnold to throw four touchdowns.
Ryan Tannehill's matchup against Jacksonville isn't near as good as the other streaming options, but his advantage is that he's actually been good. He's scored at least 22 Fantasy points in every game he's started.
The flip side of the matchup discussion is how much bad matchups matter for great quarterbacks. Aaron Rodgers is traveling to San Francisco and Dak Prescott heads to New England. These are the only two defenses surrendering fewer than 12 Fantasy points per game to opposing quarterbacks. Prescott has been so good this season that I can't sit him, but I would consider a few of the streamers over Rodgers.
The one quarterback who has talent and a great matchup is Matt Ryan, which is why he's my No. 1 quarterback to start the week.
Week 12 QB Preview
Numbers to know
- 88 - Rushing yards for Jeff Driskel in his two starts. That certainly helps his floor.
- 83.6% - On-target rate for Nick Foles. That's the highest mark in the league (min. 50 attempts)
- 9.6 - Intended air yards per attempt for Ryan Tannehill this season. That's top five and two full yards higher than Marcus Mariota.
- 8.8 - Yards per attempt for Dak Prescott. Lamar Jackson is the only quarterback the Patriots have faced who is averaging even 7 yards per attempt this season.
- 18 - Interceptions for Jameis Winston. The turnovers are the only reason he's not a breakout star this season.
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Waiver Wire Targets
Tannehill's matchup isn't great, but it's not enough to scare me away either. He's the one quarterback who is widely available who hasn't had stretches of terrible play this season. He's also done some damage with his legs the past two games, rushing for 75 yards against the Panthers and Chiefs.
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I actually have Driskel projected for the most Fantasy points of the guys available on the waiver wire, but his sample size is too small to feel secure about the projection. This is his easiest matchup yet and he doesn't have a phenomenal supporting cast of pass catchers. The biggest risk may be that the Lions run all over Washington, but thy haven't had much success running on anyone this season.
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It's the Dolphins! In fairness to Mayfield, he does have multiple passing touchdowns in each of his past two games and those were against much better defenses. The Browns could beat the Dolphins solely with the run if they wanted, but this is a good spot for Mayfield to feed Odell Beckham and try to get him back on track for the stretch run.
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Foles' Week 12 matchup against the Titans isn't great, but this may be the last time you sit him. This offense has pretty steadily produced borderline QB1 stats, and after the Titans the Jags face their easiest stretch of schedule starting with Tampa Bay in Week 13.
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DFS Plays
The Falcons cannot run the ball and Tampa Bay has been one of the best run defenses in the league. The Falcons throw the ball very well and the Buccaneers have allowed the second-most points to opposing quarterbacks. It's a match made in heaven.
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We'll see if I have to change this later in the week, but Driskel's low price allows you to get closer to playing Christian McCaffrey and Michael Thomas. Hopefully he's not too popular.
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Heath's projections
Rank | QB | FPTs |
1 | Matt Ryan | 29.51 |
2 | Russell Wilson | 28.39 |
3 | Lamar Jackson | 28.37 |
4 | DeShaun Watson | 27.42 |
5 | Drew Brees | 25.52 |
6 | Carson Wentz | 24.28 |
7 | Jameis Winston | 23.25 |
8 | Dak Prescott | 22.68 |
9 | Jacoby Brissett | 22.59 |
10 | Tom Brady | 22.59 |
11 | Jeff Driskel | 22.49 |
12 | Jimmy Garoppolo | 22.36 |
13 | Derek Carr | 22.34 |
14 | Ryan Tannehill | 22.32 |
15 | Aaron Rodgers | 22.10 |
16 | Baker Mayfield | 21.91 |
17 | Josh Allen | 21.69 |
18 | Mason Rudolph | 21.26 |
19 | Chase Daniel | 21.01 |
20 | Nick Foles | 20.97 |
21 | Daniel Jones | 20.64 |
22 | Sam Darnold | 20.30 |
23 | Jared Goff | 19.72 |
24 | Dwayne Haskins | 17.59 |
25 | Kyle Allen | 17.11 |
26 | Ryan Finley | 16.89 |
27 | Ryan Fitzpatrick | 16.57 |
28 | Brandon Allen | 15.38 |
So who should you sit and start this week? And which surprising quarterback could lead you to victory? Visit SportsLine now to get Week 12 rankings for every position, plus see which QB is going to come out of nowhere to crack the top 10, all from the model that out-performed experts big time last season.
