As Travis Kelce returns from his bye week, it is worth considering the remarking that we may have a race for the TE1 down the stretch this season. That's probably not surprising overall because Kelce missed Week 1 and it's always uncertain how much the Chiefs will play in Week 18. But even on a per-game basis, the question is unsettled.
Part of the equation is that Kelce has come back to earth just a little. His 17.6 PPR FPPG is about a point below last year's pace, and almost exactly what Mark Andrews averaged in 2021 when he finished as TE1. More alarming is that Kelce has been below 13 Fantasy points in five of eight games. His 35.9 point outburst against the Chargers is doing a lot of work.
But it's not just about Kelce looking somewhat human. T.J. Hockenson is just a point and a half behind Kelce, and he has been force fed targets since Joshua Dobbs took over. And over the last month we have seen Trey McBride, Dalton Kincaid, and Cole Kmet break out, all averaging more than 16.5 PPR FPPG since Week 8. McBride and Kincaid specifically have the right combination of talent and situational opportunity to win Fantasy leagues in the second half of the season.
We've talked a little the last month about how tight end is suddenly deep and streaming isn't as attractive. But what has maybe gone unnoticed is that there appears to be a new elite class of tight ends emerging. It may be deep at the top for a while.
Donald Parham is a touchdown-dependent streamer if Everett is out.
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Numbers to Know
9.6 -- Kyle Pitts has not scored more than 9.6 Fantasy points since Week 6. If you need to drop him on his bye, that's fine.
3 -- Taysom Hill only had three touches in Week 10. He is also droppable if you need the roster spot
27 -- T.J. Hockenson has seen 27 targets in two games with Joshua Dobbs. He may be a contender for TE1 rest of season.
32.2% -- Trey McBride has seen a 32% target share since Zach Ertz went on injured reserve.
2.60 -- Tanner Hudson has become the Bengals featured receiving tight end the past two weeks and is averaging 2.6 yards per route run for the season. He's on the watch list for now.
65.2 -- Dalton Kincaid has scored 65.2 PPR Fantasy points over the past month. Only Hockenson and Hill have scored more.
There is something to be said for just streaming a tight end in a game you think could be a shootout and any game involving the Chargers could be a shootout. Musgrave has the added benefit of being a rookie with upside.
They couldn't raise McBride's price fast enough, especially with Travis Kelce, T.J. Hockenson, and Mark Andrews all off the main slate. Especially against a Texans defense that has seen the most tight end targets this season. I have McBride projected for 1.6 more Fantasy points than any other tight end on the slate but he's not even one of the three highest priced options at the position on FanDuel.
I'd prefer to play McBride in 100% of my lineups, but he will be awfully chalky; Engram will not. It is a bad matchup and he hasn't been great lately, but he's still seeing seven-plus targets every week. That dam could break at any moment and Engram could be the top tight end on the slate when it does.
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Heath's Projections
My full set of Week 11 Fantasy Football projections for every position are now available on SportsLine. Find out which of my favorite plays are projected to score higher than consensus rankings and which don't live up to their draft hype, at least in Week 11. Projected stats for all starting quarterbacks are available, so be sure to check out the full set of projections at SportsLine.
