Brandon Aiyuk has looked like himself the past two weeks, which is awesome for anyone who stuck it out. It's also why you'll see Aiyuk atop most wide receiver waiver wire priority lists this week. And that includes mine. But there is another question. What does that mean for 2021's biggest breakout at wide receiver, Deebo Samuel?
In the 49ers' first game with Aiyuk, Samuel and Kittle all at full strength, we saw a very even target split. Samuel led the team with a 23.1% share, while Kittle and Aiyuk were right behind him at 20.5% each. This is quite a contrast from Samuel's 34% target share from Weeks 1-8.
One potential benefit to Samuel seeing fewer targets would be if Kittle and Aiyuk draw more attention, which increases Samuel's efficiency. But the third-year wide receiver is already averaging 18 yards per catch and 10.9 yards per target. If anything, a dip in efficiency should be expected in addition to a dip in targets.
What does this all mean? Well, I have Samuel ranked 18th at wide receiver this week, and that's with four teams on bye. Rest of season, I'd call him more of a low-end No. 2 receiver with big weekly upside if Kittle and Aiyuk stay heavily involved. That's a big if, and provides room for Samuel to be much better than I'm projecting in the second half. But there's also significant risk that the team turns to Trey Lance at some point and the passing game collapses.
Here is the rest of the Week 10 WR Preview:
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PHI
Philadelphia
• #1
Age: 31
• Experience: 10 yrs.
Jaylen Waddle should remain the Dolphins' alpha No. 1.
WR Preview
Numbers to Know
32.3% -- Deebo Samuel still leads all players with a 32.3% target share.
194 -- Jakobi Meyers has now seen 194 targets without a touchdown. Since the NFL started counting targets in 1992, no player has more targets without a touchdown.
41.2% -- Tyler Lockett is responsible for 41.2% of Seattle's air yards, the fourth-highest mark in the league. The return of Russell Wilson makes Lockett a starter again.
81 -- Ja'Marr Chase has 81 yards over his past two games on 22 targets. He's on a bye this week, so you might check in with his Fantasy manager and see if you can buy low.
24.1 -- The Bills have held opposing wide receivers to 24.1 PPR Fantasy points per game, by far the best mark in the league. You should add Elijah Moore, but you should not be starting him.
0 -- Michael Pittman does not have a drop this season. His 71 targets are the most without a drop.
17.4 -- Emmanuel Sanders 17.4 aDOT is the highest among receivers with at least 20 targets. It's also why he's so unreliable.
10.6 -- Hunter Renfrow has scored at least 10.6 PPR Fantasy points in seven of eight games.
Johnson has a great matchup against the Lions and it looks like the Steelers will be without Chase Claypool. Ignore his recent struggles and fire him up.
Lockett gets Russell Wilson back and a matchup with the Packers banged up secondary. He could have a monster performance if the Packers put all their efforts into stopping DK Metcalf.
WR Preview
Heath's Projections
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