Heading into Thursday Night Football, we still have a lot of question marks at running back for Week 10. Nick Chubb is still on COVID-IR and needs two negative tests before Sunday if he's to suit up. James Robinson was on the practice field on Thursday, but is still battling a sore heel that kept him out of Week 9. And Alvin Kamara missed practice again on Thursday with a "minor" leg injury that may have had something to do with the Saints adding a running back to their practice squad.
The immediate concern is what you do with these guys in relation to Myles Gaskin and Devonta Freeman. If all backs were starting, I'd start all three over the Thursday night backs, but if you don't have a reasonable backup plan, that's not something you can risk.
I have more concern about Chubb and Kamara than I do Robinson. That's partially because Urban Meyer said he expects Robinson to play and partially because Robinson was at least on the practice field on Thursday.
Ideally, it would be nice if you could put Kamara, Robinson, or Chubb in your flex spot and wait it out until Sunday. But there are circumstances where the only reasonable choice is to start Gaskin, Freeman, or an uncertain back. With Kamara and Chubb, you probably need to take the safe route.
As of Tuesday, we don't expect Harris or Rhamondre Stevenson. If they're both out, J.J. Taylor and Brandon Bolden would split the touches for the Patriots.
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Numbers to know
24.8 -- D'Ernest Johnson scored 24.8 PPR Fantasy points the last game he played without Nick Chubb and Kareem Hunt.
19.7% -- D'Andre Swift leads all running backs with a 19.7% target share for the season.
68.3% -- Damien Harris and Stevenson have accounted for more than two-thirds of the Patriots rush attempts this year. No other back has even a 10% share.
Howard is a high-end flex with good touchdown odds. The risk comes if the Eagles fall down by multiple scores. That's less of a risk against the Broncos.
Bolden is our favorite Patriots back if both Harris and Stevenson miss time. But he's still a good PPR flex if even one of them is out. J.J. Taylor is a deep add as well.
There was just no way they were going to raise Conner's price enough in his first game as the feature back. He may be $1,000 more by the time we get to Week 11.
Rightfully, no one wants to play a running back against the Bills. But Carter, as long as Mike White is playing QB, isn't dependent on success on the ground. This is one way to fade D'Ernest Johnson if you so choose.
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Heath's Projections
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