The Green Bay Packers have placed Rashan Gary on Injured Reserve and could be with out two other starters in Week 10 against the Cowboys. Incredibly, I'm still not comfortable ranking Dak Prescott as a top-12 option in Week 10. That's partially because of the change in philosophy for the Cowboys and partially because the Packers matchup still may not be great, even without Gary.
Josh Allen is the only QB to top 20 Fantasy points against Green Bay since Week 1 and the Packers have only allowed three quarterbacks to score more than 15 points in a game. On the other hand, the Packers have one of the worst run defenses in the league and these injuries aren't going to help with that. The path of least resistance against them is still on the ground, and the Packers anemic offense is not going to motivate anyone to go pass-heavy against them.
The motivation to pass or run is the second complicating factor. The Cowboys made a change in philosophy while Prescott was out to commit to the run and that hasn't changed since Prescott returned. The Cowboys have thrown 25 and 27 passes in Prescott's first two games back. Each of the past four seasons, Prescott has averaged between 0.6 and 0.66 Fantasy points per pass attempt which means he needs more than 30 pass attempts to project 20 Fantasy points. Recent history combined with the current matchup should give you no confidence Prescott will throw 30 passes.
115.9 -- Tua Tagovailoa leads all quarterbacks with a 115.9 passer rating.
170.6 -- The Packers have allowed just 170.6 passing yards per game to opposing quarterbacks.
210 -- Three games in a row for Geno Smith with at least 210 passing yards and two touchdown passes. It doesn't look like he's going away.
2.5% -- Tom Brady's touchdown rate still hasn't rebounded. This is just the second year of his career below a four percent rate. I will continue to bet on regression.
19.7 -- Jimmy Garoppolo has scored at least 19.7 Fantasy points in four straight starts.
408 -- Justin Fields has rushed for 408 yards in his past four games. Lamar Jackson is the only other quarterback to run for that many yards all season.
This is a last gasp for Wilson and the Broncos in 2022. The hope would be that his hamstring and lat injuries healed on the bye and he got more comfortable in Paul Hackett's offense. The Titans defense has been much better against the run than the pass and has given up its share of big plays this season.
We don't know for sure that Dalton will be the starter and we don't know for sure if T.J. Watt will be returning for the Steelers, or what shape he'll be in if he does. What we do know is that the Steelers have given up a bunch of big plays and Chris Olave has been one of the best deep targets in the league for Dalton. This is more of a desperation stream than someone like Garoppolo, who I want to start.
Watson is still a couple of weeks away from returning, but he has top-five upside when he comes back and we're close enough to his return to stash him, especially if your QB has already had his bye.
Fields has been absolutely on fire over the past month, he's added Chase Claypool to give him better weapons, and he faces the Detroit Lions, who may just be the worst defense in the league. He's clearly the top play in cash games this week.
I've been discouraged by Lawrence's sophomore campaign, but the Chiefs provide an excellent get-right spot. Before the Chiefs faced Malik Willis in Week 9, they had allowed four straight QBs to top 20 Fantasy points, and two of them scored 31.
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