Fantasy Football Today: Rankings updates with Christian McCaffrey, Cooper Kupp still at the top

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We're just about in the heart of the quiet part of the NFL offseason. There isn't much player movement left, and while we're still waiting for a few shoes to drop – including potential disciplinary action for Deshaun Watson and Alvin Kamara notably – there isn't much that's going to change between now and the start of training camps.

Which makes this a good time to reset our expectations for the upcoming season. Offseason workout programs and OTAs are ongoing around the league, and we'll catch up on the most interesting notes and news items in a newsletter next week, but it's worth noting that there probably shouldn't be much happening right now to change your opinion of any players. This is the first opportunity coaches are getting to see their new acquisitions working together, so the workouts and practices that are going on right now are more about establishing a baseline.

And that's what offseason rankings updates are about, too. Some of you are drafting right now, especially in Dynasty leagues, so make sure you bookmark Heath Cummings' Dynasty Central page for all of his updated content all offseason. But for the most part, this time of year is about getting ahead of the competition with your research, and one way to do that is to keep track of changes in how players are valued throughout the offseason.

So I've gone through each position to update my rankings for the upcoming season, which you can find in today's newsletter, along with my high-level thoughts on each position. Plus, I have individual pieces for each position on CBSSports.com with more thoughts on individual players at the top of each position, and I'll be updating that with my thoughts on every player ranked throughout the offseason.

Quarterback feels more loaded than ever while wide receiver seems to be going through a changing of the guard; running back has real controversy at the No. 1 pick – at least if you ask me – while tight end might even be worse than usual this season. I talk about all that and more today, and if you have any questions about why specific players are ranked where they are, how to value players, or anything else, send them my way at Chris.Towers@ViacomCBS.com with the subject line "Ask FFT" for an upcoming edition of the newsletter. We'll also have bold predictions from the entire FFT staff later this week, so keep an eye out for that!

For now, here are my updated rankings for each position:

QB Rankings

The bar for a great QB season in Fantasy is higher than ever these days, and that has an impact on how you should approach the position for Fantasy Football. Even as recently as five years ago, only three players averaged more than 23.0 Fantasy points per game in six-point-per-pass-TD scoring, and that was pretty typical; in 2016, only three managed it, while a whopping four did so in 2015.

That has all changed over the past few seasons. In 2020, 12 averaged at least 23 points per game, while the top four each topped 29 points per game; in 2021, the top three were all north of 26 points per game while nine averaged 23.81 per game or better. The bar for being a starting-caliber Fantasy quarterback is higher than ever, and your chances of finding a starting-caliber Fantasy QB late in the drafts are lower, as a result.

Of those nine who averaged 23.81 points per game or more in 2021, they were all drafted among the first 13 quarterbacks based on Average Draft Position from NFFC drafts last season. Kirk Cousins and Jameis Winston were the only quarterbacks drafted outside of the top 13 at the position who averaged 20 points per game, so if you weren't taking a QB early, you were getting left behind.

Of course, plenty of quarterbacks are intriguing enough that you don't necessarily have to draft one early this year. Just know that if you are going to wait on the position, recent history suggests you're taking a risk. And, given how good the high-end options have been lately, it's a risk that could set you back more than you think.

RB Rankings

In most Fantasy Football leagues this season, there won't be much of a question about who to take with the No. 1 overall pick. Jonathan Taylor was the No. 1 running back in 2021 after he led the NFL with 1,811 rushing yards and 18 touchdowns, plus 40 catches for 360 yards, and given his age (23) and lack of injury concerns (no games missed last season, just two in five years dating back to the start of his college career), he's going to be the top choice in nearly all leagues.

But he's not my No. 1 running back for 2022. That's still Christian McCaffrey for me, and I'm OK being the outlier here. As good as Taylor was in 2021, he didn't actually have a great season by the standards of No. 1 RBs; his 22.2 PPR points per game was the lowest by a top-ranked RB since Devonta Freeman's 21.4 in 2017.

In fact, Taylor wasn't even the top scorer per game in 2021; Derrick Henry was. McCaffrey was at 18.2, but if you take out the two games he left early with injuries, he averaged 23.6 points per game. His previous three seasons? 30.1, 29.3, and 23.8. Injuries have been an issue – he's played just 10 games the past two seasons – but there's little doubt in my mind that McCaffrey is still the best player in Fantasy when healthy. Heck, McCaffrey has just one fewer game with 24-plus PPR points (seven) than Taylor over the past two seasons, despite playing 22 fewer games.

"When healthy" is assuming a lot, but McCaffrey's injuries haven't been serious enough to require surgery, nor have they been the kind of recurring injuries that tend to be especially worrisome. I'll grant he carries more risk than Taylor, based on their track records, and he might even have more risk than your typical running back.

But nobody touches McCaffrey's upside thanks to his pass-catching chops, and unless I get a good reason to think that role is changing significantly, I'm still going to treat McCaffrey like the top option at the position. This means I'm still viewing McCaffrey as the No. 1 overall pick, though the nice thing is, I don't even have to get the top pick to end up with my top player; he's fallen to fourth in drafts I've done so far at times. I'll take him every time there.

Here are my top 48 running backs for 2022:

WR Rankings

With Davante Adams being traded to Las Vegas this offseason, there's no real question who the No. 1 wide receiver taken in Fantasy Football leagues will be in 2022. Coming off his historic 2021, Kupp enters the season at the top of the wide receiver rankings. Is there any case to be made for someone else as the first wide receiver off the board?

I think you can quite easily make the case for how the likes of Davante Adams, Justin Jefferson, or Ja'Marr Chase could end up being the No. 1 WR by the end of the season. In Adams' case, he's moving from a team that was 15th in pass attempts in 2021 to one that was seventh; if the Raiders funnel 30% of their targets to Adams the way the Packers did, that could help make up for whatever loss in quality of target he might face from the transition from Aaron Rodgers to Derek Carr.

The case for Jefferson and Chase is similar and pretty obvious: They're historically productive young receivers with another year under their belts. If their teams decide to go more pass-heavy and they can retain their outrageous efficiency with more targets, you can see how either could be the No. 1 WR. It's a bet on elite talent with two guys who are still in their early 20s.

The problem is that both Jefferson and Chase play on teams that aren't necessarily pass-first, and while we hope that might change, we haven't seen it for long enough from either squad to expect it. Jefferson did at least earn the kind of true Alpha No. 1 WR target share that you want to see from a No. 1 contender last season, with 27.5% of the team's targets going his way; if he could bump that up to 30% and supplant Adam Thielen as the team's top touchdown scorer, it's not hard to see Jefferson being the No. 1 guy.

Chase probably requires a bit more projecting to get there, to be honest. He was outrageously good as a rookie, averaging 18.0 yards per catch, 11.4 per target, and a touchdown rate over 10%. However, he had just 128 targets and arguably wasn't even the No. 1 target on his own team; Tee Higgins was on pace for more targets but missed three games, though Chase did out-target him 35-30 in the playoffs. If Chase can sustain his outlier efficiency while bumping up to the 150-target range, he could challenge for that No. 1 spot, too, but that's asking a lot.

Any of those wide receivers, as well as Stefon Diggs, CeeDee Lamb, and perhaps some other dark horse – nobody thought Kupp would be the top player in Fantasy this time last year, after all – could finish as the No. 1 option. However, despite the fact that Kupp has only done it once and is near the age where wide receivers tend to go over the hill, he seems like the obvious choice for the top wide receiver to draft this season.

Here's my updated top 48 wide receivers for 2022 redraft leagues:

TE Rankings

Every offseason, the Fantasy Football world tries to talk itself into the possibility that, hey, maybe tight end won't be so bad this year. Nobody knows who starts the discussion every year, but you hear it without fail.

NFL offenses are constantly evolving, after all, and when you see what matchup nightmares like Travis Kelce, Mark Andrews, and George Kittle can do for their offenses, why wouldn't NFL teams find ways to get those kinds of players involved in their offenses? Players are getting bigger, stronger, and faster every year, and it always seems like we're just one year away from a sea change.

Of course, like the siren's song of Greek mythology, listening to that message can steer you off course when you're preparing for your drafts. Last year, it was T.J. Hockenson and Kyle Pitts who were going to help change the position, and their Average Draft Positions got pushed up into the fourth- and fifth-round range as we tried to chase the next Kelce/Gronk/whoever.

And, as it turned out, neither managed to make much of a difference for Fantasy players. Hockenson averaged 11.9 PPR points per game while Pitts was at 10.4. Far from being difference-makers who produced like wide receivers at tight end, Hockenson provided the same production Corey Davis (WR41) did, while Pitts wouldn't even have been a top-50 option at WR.

But hey, maybe tight end won't be so bad this year, right? The hype around Hockenson has died off a bit, but Pitts did have over 1,000 yards in his historic rookie season, while the likes of Cole Kmet and Albert Okwuegbunam, among others, provide some hope for breakouts. It could happen.

Or, maybe Andrews regresses after his breakout season; maybe Kelce finally runs out of steam in his age-33 season; maybe Pitts gets held back by mediocre QB play, Trey Lance holds George Kittle back, and Hockenson, Dallas Goedert, and Darren Waller struggle to stand out amid more crowded receiving corps than in years past.

So, sure, maybe this is the year that tight end stops being such a disaster. It's possible. But I'd say it's equally likely the position ends up even worse than you think in 2022. Whether you want to try to pay a premium to find out on Draft Day is up to you, but here's how I'm viewing the position right now for 2022: